Bubbler86

Icon prepping

RGEM gets sleet going in the LSV and South PA sometime between 1-7AM then a large majority of the precip is tomorrow AM after daylight. Sleet transitions to light freezing rain 10amish. Does get the highs from 45-55 in south PA tomorrow. Icon still most frz but precip out of the area earlier tomorrow....highs 35-45 in South PA. Fv3 has most of the LSV just plan rain by 10AM tomorrow...after some light snow/rain over night transitioning to several hours of sleet and frz starting before daylight and continuing to the rain transition.

MDT reported about 6" though they count sleet as snow. Check out those highs in the teens on this day back then.

He is probably not accounting for the mountains plus I am not really in his forecast area. It may be virga down at 400-500 feet but not up at 800-1000. We are at 80-90% humidity up here. It has moved out for now though.

Noticed some of the mesos have more snow on the east side of the state for tomorrow especially the HRRR. But also more regular rain at the end of the precip. Here is the rgem for 10AM tomorrow and the 6Z HRRR for 6AM tomorrow

27/24 here with very light snow.

The threats are changing seemingly each run right now so hard to discuss too many specifics outside the next 5 days unless one wants to simply break down model reasons for outcomes.

48 hour snow on 18Z GFS

Sat evening as of now but too far out to be sure on that. Snow/mix ending as rain with the usual Cad caveats.

To me the Jackpot is the areas where the highest snows happen. I usually do not count the mountains.

Well MDT is 6-10" lower than the MA which is what I meant by Jackpot.

A lot meant 5-6 so maybe an exaggeration but it was indeed low key for such a snow. Of course MA was jackpotted not LSV

It was posted a lot. LOL

There was a VERY significant one in the mid 80's. I was over in Carlisle and route 81 was closed because cars could not move.

You got that one right.

Looks a little more Grimey in Philly all of sudden.

This should result in another chance whether the Euro sees it that way or not

A Chattanooga Choo Choo with sweet temps.

Euro is mostly freezing rain with some plain rain... with temps too high to be a major event for the LSV in my opinion. Just a prog, not a forecast and I am sure someone has Cad knowledge on how well the Euro does. A good bit of the qpf is during daytime as nothing is close to falling at 6Z.

UK for the weekend is mostly a snow to rain situation. Not a lot of ice.

UK is a sleet bomb as well...little to no FRZ unless pivotal output of the UK is different than their outer suites.

CTP's page does not seem to list the sleet requirements for a WSW but some other places use 1/2". Snow is 5" in the LSV and SE, 6" rest of the state....and 1/4" for ice except for 9 NE most counties which are 1/2" of ice.

As other have said, that sleet bomb is the key. An Icon like situation of only FRZ is not going to be that terrible once the sun comes up. I doubt I have much in the way over here as to FRZ.