Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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The isobars have really elongated to our east with two areas of frontogenesis now...one where we saw it before off the NC coast and one slightly below this circle and dry slot so the slp is probably in this general area.
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It did close. Thinking about it, maybe that was before you moved up here so that makes more sense. I bought some stuff from their auction. Not a fan of their location though as to pass by traffic. So many coming east turn at the circle in New Oxford and skip cross keys.
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I thought you were going to saw you are retired and do not want to spend the cash on the premium site! Ps, never been to cross keys diner? How? Lol
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Do you have a sub to one of the model sites? Will be helpful if you do :-). Blizz's work gets in the way during the day.
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The radar is blossoming nicely in central VA. May be a bit too far east for me but someone is going to get a lot of precip.
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This was the thought of my post (someone did say past beginning of Jan) in chuckling that there was panic of the pattern not changing at Christmas. I disagree with the panic just based on everyone's current penchant to feel cautious when times are good but easily turning negative when things start can kicking. With that said, recently there were posts (EPS I think) showing a sweet pattern Christmas week and starting to feel we are losing hope on that.
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Down to 45 here as the temps continue to march down. 14 degree drop in 3-4 hours.
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Defintely can be thunderstorms which is why I threw some question in but I enjoy watching for busts (good or bad.). There is not a lot forcing in other areas as of yet though. As you know said thunderstorms can also limit blossoming to the west. The cold at the surface is still my worry. I truly think accum snow is going to be whomever gets under a band that overcomes the surface.
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Looking at this map, one would think the trailing slp is developing a bit father east than some meso's showed. This can sometimes be off from actual sw positions though.
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Gotcha, I thought you meant 4 weeks out. I am just reporting what I read over there.
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Week 4 would be Mid Jan. I am not a big believer in getting worked up (to the positive or negative) on ensemble patterns as they change too often but there is at least a whole page of downer talk over there. It surprised me as I had not checked in for a few days.
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I am not going to quote it as it would embarrass the poster which is quite respected over there.
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A week ago, the pattern for Christmas looked cold and primed.
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Actually they are. I do not agree with it.
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The MA LR thread is quite "sad". The op GFS run today was super ugly but people punting into Mid Jan now based on ensemble patterns.
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Down to 52 here after a peak of 59. LNS got to 61 or 60. Another story here, mentioned by JNS I think, is the somewhat paltry totals after having flood watches. So far, we have had about 1/2" and MDT about .30 but it has been a slog to get there.
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Nam vacillated back to a much more impressive presentation in the cold sector precip for tonight. One of its better snow runs as temps are just 1-2 above freezing when snowing. 3K improved as well but quite elevation dependent. The resulting snow depths are nowhere near this good but at this stage it is "take what you can."
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Many LSV locations have done a pretty good job at holding temps down this weekend. Modeled too high by most suites. CXY is up to 53.
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LNS is at 59 or 60.
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The nam did a good job forecasting that leading up to this weekend. Never showed the Lsv breaking into the mid to upper 50's until today. No valley here to get socked in.
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Late nooners....sun poking out and 58. Time to get chores done before the next round arrives.
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Break in the rain here. Temp has jumped to 55. Getting close to 60 in southern Lanco. 12Z GFS has that same Southern York or Lanco bullseye seen in several mesos.
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Totally agreed. Seeing so many suites not showing wide scale accum snow this AM really made me hold back enthusiasm. So now we have several mesos with minor bullseyes in Lanco and/or south York. Do we settle there?
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It also seemed to be faster/further N at the same intervals in comparison to previous runs. Either way it is too warm at the surface out this way.
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Hoping the EE is the right. My view of the snow maps is a signal for elevation dependance. The new HRRR really has that look.
