Quite the event period on the 6Z GFS for 13 days out. Still a period to watch regardless of its current outcome of rain. 2 coastal's in 3 days. 5-7" of rain in the Leigh Valley on this run.
All bets on my somewhat negative post-frontal take are off the boards if the slp developed like the Euro suggests but I feel like we talk about this every year and the same trend that pulls precip in faster than modeled, limits the chances for areas East of the mountains when the low is going near the LSV longitude as the front is passing. If the low was developing earlier in the Southeast I would feel differently. That is some serious poundage in the blue near the changeover.
Meso's and CMC/Icon really showing a back door possibility/Atlantic help for Saturday as to temps and staying cold in the LSV. GFS and Euro not buying it.
Here is the 12Z Nam
Pretty big differences in front timing and temps later this week on the CMC and GFS. GFS would have it 55-65 for 3 days while CMC says 2 with one of them being a short period during one of those days. Icon has it getting over 50 four days but not as warm as the GFS. Despite the CMC being overall cooler, the front timing is quite different. At 6Z Monday the GFS has MDT at 38 and CMC has 61 for the same time.
The front passage on Sunday is getting more interesting as to active weather. Could see temps skyrocket above 65 before the front arrives and the chance of some rumbles as depicted right now.
For forecasters that rely on the ensembles for pattern recognition, I can see why the ball is being punted to the end of Dec. The only real trough after this week is the one we keep coming back to thinking there will be food/snow there.
I saw a documentary once explaining how counseling is so desperately needed in areas of the world that stay dark for months at a time (North Alaska, etc) because of the sadness, depression and miserable feeling that comes with it.
No offense to any poster but we are good at pointing out the issue of the day and complaining about it. I agree that we get plenty of sun here on a yearly basis.
Hopefully. My wife put out some of the plans we keep in the garage to get some. The Mesos's I looked out have at least partly cloudy though.....so not a fully sunny day if they are right.