The Iirony is all the talk of us being in the best pattern since <insert date here> starting now and instead we are going into a spring pattern. Long Range Weather forecasting is the pits sometimes.
NWS's take on dealing with the lack of many models efficiently handling good radiational cooling nights like the next 2.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered over the Leatherstocking region of New
York state tonight with a ridge extending south into the CWA
will bring clear skies and light wind. This will result in
efficient radiational cooling tonight. Will continue to blend
lower percentile NBM temps for lows Tuesday morning (teens to
low 20s which are a few to several deg F below normal).
Recent history of nights similar to tonight, with high pressure overhead or to our north, suggests the temps will not fall as low as this but will be lower than all the other suites.
It is likely that MDT has hit their low temp for the season which would tie it for the second warmest low in their record keeping history. This is seasonal not yearly. 3 of the top 4 have happened in the last 5 years.