Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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I guess that has been my view as well. Things are fluid so waiting to see how they play out. I am of the opinion that this heat period (whether one gets a wave desgination or not) is not going to be historical. Historical meaning one we look back on 10 years from now. Heck, many seem to have forgotten about the big heat waves of 2022 already.
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Outside the Euro, I did not see any models showing highs Thur above 91-92 so a bit close. As opposed to today which was mid 90's. Rgem did pretty good today and is 2 degrees lower for Thur.
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If the HRRR and RGEM are right I would expect you to get to 94 or 95. Still think tomorrow is a question. Looks like LNS has finally hit 90. If I do not get 90 today, I may not have 3 days at 90 all together as Thur is a question as well as the weekend days. May just be a single 90 day or could be 2-3 if today falls short.
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Temps down to mid to upper 70's in the Western LSV cell. Down to 86 here.
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Cell just popped to my north in the western parts of the LSV....87 in the race to see if the heat wave starts today (though I doubt we get to 90 over here tomorrow, MDT will be the one to watch to see if it makes it.) MDT 90 and LNS also waiting to start the heat wave at 88.
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One consideration here is that it is partly cloudy (surprisingly, does not show up that well of visible sat pics.) I was just outside for 15 min and it sun was behind clouds at least 1/2 of the time.
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8 before Nooners. 83 in Rou. Think we eek out a 90 but shall see. MDT is 86 which is 2 above their temp at this time yesterday.
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LNS lagging behind again.
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As a compare to another hot time, here is July 2020 when MDT hit 90 or above over 2/3 of the month including a 100. 22 out of the 31 days.
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https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kmdt Change ending to cxy for Cap City. 9:50 and 79 degrees.
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Until the ridge moves, we are praying. It is like an umbrella. Last week the GFS had the ridge further south and we were getting inches of rain this week.
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3K is getting angry for our Western areas tomorrow. Being on the outside periphery of this ridge can really lead to some wet days.
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Lancaster only getting to 88 and Dubois 91. Who would have thunk. MU's high this afternoon was 88 on their obs though I cannot see back past 2PM.
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GFS has showers Saturday Afternoon through the night and then again Sunday afternoon. CMC has showers Friday PM, Sat PM into Sunday. Pieces of energy rotating around the ridge as it backs south again (as progged.)
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The potential rain and clouds this weekend is still a player.
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Sinking air can destroy storms ala what I see over each summer. Not saying it is the end all but this ridge is a big pappy.
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Ridge time?
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I do not see much difference between Today-Thur as to highs other than that the lead up of wall to wall mid to upper 90's may have skewed perception a bit. Tomorrow seems a few degrees warmer on the models so I picked Wed as the possible day MDT may not make low 90's. Low 90's are not intense or extreme in my book though. This time of the year, we need a 97-98 temp or 110 HI in my book.
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Models have some scattered showers tomorrow Am but not much Wed.
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We could use it.
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MDT's 92 today bodes well for the heat mignons that want a real heat wave. But if Wed does not get to 90 and Sat does not get to 90, some record keepers will say no heat wave.
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Some of those came back to Rou as well. My only regret was the Korean Rice Balls being sold out (Let me have it Atomix)
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It has happened 47 times since 1888. 9 times since 2000 with the most recent being Aug 2022. It happened twice in the same season in 2016 and 2002. BUT no June dates on there. 2002 in particular stands out with a 9 and a 10.
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.3 to go
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I think MDT bagged a 90 though they are bouncing between 88 and 90 so not sure yet. GFS was 3-4 degrees too cool for 2PM.
