Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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I was kidding a bit though I am on the side of the heat being blown out of proportion a bit. There is a lot of research that suggests dry soil leads to less death during heat waves due to the lower humidity caused by the heat transfer; interesting topic.
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Well, it is convection so globals spread the qpf too evenly in that situation but there was almost 1.5" of rain in the Western LSV today so something for everyone to hope they can get under.
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FWIW, GFS has a lot of convection for all of us.
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The normal high 2 weeks from now is 87. I would expect the MDT Concrete Jungle to be above 90 half those days even in a coolish summer. I just did a manual scan so possible I missed one but it appears the last time MDT had a July day not reach 80, without precip/clouds, was July 7, 2018....almost 6 years ago.
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Meso's have 60's across the board for the southern LSV tonight so let's see how that works out.
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Not as shaky as the grounds for calling a heat wave at LNS. Will see if they come in with a 90 or 91 today. If they fall by the wayside tomorrow, they have to start all over. LOL. MU already below 90 themselves. What kind of hot box are you guys running over there! LOL
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Rou/Camp Hill/East Nantmeal?
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Down to 85 here now. High was 87.
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Charter flights will do that sometimes.
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Almost 3 and 87. Mid 80's higher elevations to the north. Been a bit surprised it seems trending toward not making 90. Light shower popping west of Camp Hill.
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I guess that has been my view as well. Things are fluid so waiting to see how they play out. I am of the opinion that this heat period (whether one gets a wave desgination or not) is not going to be historical. Historical meaning one we look back on 10 years from now. Heck, many seem to have forgotten about the big heat waves of 2022 already.
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Outside the Euro, I did not see any models showing highs Thur above 91-92 so a bit close. As opposed to today which was mid 90's. Rgem did pretty good today and is 2 degrees lower for Thur.
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If the HRRR and RGEM are right I would expect you to get to 94 or 95. Still think tomorrow is a question. Looks like LNS has finally hit 90. If I do not get 90 today, I may not have 3 days at 90 all together as Thur is a question as well as the weekend days. May just be a single 90 day or could be 2-3 if today falls short.
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Temps down to mid to upper 70's in the Western LSV cell. Down to 86 here.
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Cell just popped to my north in the western parts of the LSV....87 in the race to see if the heat wave starts today (though I doubt we get to 90 over here tomorrow, MDT will be the one to watch to see if it makes it.) MDT 90 and LNS also waiting to start the heat wave at 88.
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One consideration here is that it is partly cloudy (surprisingly, does not show up that well of visible sat pics.) I was just outside for 15 min and it sun was behind clouds at least 1/2 of the time.
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8 before Nooners. 83 in Rou. Think we eek out a 90 but shall see. MDT is 86 which is 2 above their temp at this time yesterday.
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LNS lagging behind again.
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As a compare to another hot time, here is July 2020 when MDT hit 90 or above over 2/3 of the month including a 100. 22 out of the 31 days.
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https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kmdt Change ending to cxy for Cap City. 9:50 and 79 degrees.
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Until the ridge moves, we are praying. It is like an umbrella. Last week the GFS had the ridge further south and we were getting inches of rain this week.
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3K is getting angry for our Western areas tomorrow. Being on the outside periphery of this ridge can really lead to some wet days.
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Lancaster only getting to 88 and Dubois 91. Who would have thunk. MU's high this afternoon was 88 on their obs though I cannot see back past 2PM.
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GFS has showers Saturday Afternoon through the night and then again Sunday afternoon. CMC has showers Friday PM, Sat PM into Sunday. Pieces of energy rotating around the ridge as it backs south again (as progged.)
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The potential rain and clouds this weekend is still a player.
