Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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If you change the 80 to 77 you get 3 at MDT (since 1980). So, it is too stringent for MDT as you suggested but not that far off. I think one heat wave a year is too often. Should be a 10 times in 50 years type event in my opinion.
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Their point was that heat waves should be rare.
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I agree heat waves should not be an event that happens 3x a year, but I still like using norms vs. set temps. Norms with a set minimum whether 95 or something else.
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One way to see how soft the 90 three days option is, since 1980 MDT has reached 90 and above on 3 consecutive days 133 times (not 133 days, 133 times of 3 or more days.) That is 3 times per year when dividing it out to an average. Lester Holt would need to talk Heat Waves all summer...granted this run of 90 and over was longer than average coming in tied as the 13th longest since 1980. More fairly drastic stats, during the same 1980-2024 time frame LNS had 3 consecutive 90+ days 67 times or half of MDT.
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Interesting comment and to tag on to that (I do not know the answer to your question) the article from 2001 noted that the original definition of a heat wave was too stringent (even higher than the 105/80 thing) for the North and West US because stations never met the criteria where as the southern stations met it several times a month; thus the need for location variables.
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That is the question. I know of 3 accepted definitions. Over 90 for 3 or more consecutive days, 9 degrees above average for 5 or more consecutive days or this one above where the HI has to be over 105 for 2 or more days AND the lows have to remain 80 or above. MDT easily made #1, they made #2 as well though it was just by one degree on two of the days. They did not come close using the third more stringent definition. I do not believe LNS, HGR, THV made it using the second definition.
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The AMS came up with this formula to determine Heat Waves with some averages (in this case the number exceeding what would be seen at the station 1% or less of the time) being used in most sections. Note only 2 days are needed for some definitions. I posted something like this a few years ago as a commentary/lead into discussion of the pitfalls in using the 90-degree mark when that mark is 5 or less degrees above normal (plus this definition uses HI not straight temp.) This is from 2001.
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I personally think too much emphasis is placed on the 90-degree mark. To get to 90-94 in the LSV June-Sept is almost normal now plus most nights were in the 60's outside cities until this weekend so it was not even that warm at night...average is 65. I felt like some in the media were rooting on MDT to break 90 to verify Heat Wave conditions. I cannot tell the difference between 85 (average for right now) and 90 when outside. Take a look at the difference between the last week and the July 2020 Heat Wave at CXY. 20 of 23 days 90 and above and 13 consecutive. Only 4 of the 13 were 94 or below. I picked CXY for the graphic because of three 100 readings.
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EB Nooners, sunny, windy and 75
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MDT broke the high record for the 22nd and Max Min for the 22nd and 23rd though they got down to 76, 2 lower than you.
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They are $39.99 each and come in 8 different sizes! 10% Nylon and 90% Poly so no shrinkage!
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72 here at 10:30. We may end up with a larger BN high disparity today than any AN one during the Heat Wave of 2024 except Sat.
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67 this AM.
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The HRRR disinegrates most of the rain. :-( If it is right, back to the drawing board looking for qpf.
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87,88,87,87,92,96,90. Final run down from the "Great Heat Wave of 2024" around these parts. Might be out of order as going from memory but last 3 are in order. 5 of the 7 mornings featured lows in the 60's. During the Great Heat Wave of 2020 I outdistanced MDT almost every day featuring an apex of 102. If it has been 1 less degree here today the whole Heat Wave would have been tossed with no 3 day stretch of 90's. Using HGR and MDT norms, I was only in Double digit departure territory one day. The first 4 days were within a degree or two of normal.
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That is over 2 weeks away so like the 60's for highs a day or so ago, I suspect that modifies. 105 at 2PM would set all times records through most of the state sans a cooling shower coming.
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Not nice. For entertainment only. That is mid 100's at 2PM!
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Air is juicy here. Sun broke through and it is now 90 giving Rou its first Heat Wave of the season with 90+ for the last 3 days.
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84 and cloudy at noon.
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Very cloudy over this way. Holding at 83.
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You have a good shot of not breaking 80 tomorrow.
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It is more than hit or miss. On this terrain map, note the area where there is no secondary mountain range coming off the true central PA ranges. Quite often cells form out of seemingly nowhere and move in a generally direction through the gap. This is really just convection situations that I have seen it but it happens a lot every summer. When the cells get to the river, they will often pivot a bit and run down the river in a more SE direction instead of due East.
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I seem to be at a loss for this each summer. My only advice is to say you will not see rain for weeks as that seems to draw in the qpf to you.
