Bubbler86
-
Posts
29,675 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Bubbler86
-
It is mostly cloudy over here so holding the temps back a bit. 79 now. Was just in downtown W-Boro and it was 81.
-
Eb nooners due to a meeting. 77 and a beaut Clark.
-
Another interesting stat...June has the potential to end up as our second lowest month in 2024 (so far) on a count of double digit AN departures. MDT has 3 right now and assuming we get one more., that would give us 4, one more than May, but behind all the other months. There is precedent for this in that it is harder to get a double-digit departure in the summer but still a perception thing. Jan-9 Feb-6 Mar-9 Apr-5 May-3 June-3 (through 6/25)
-
Here is the run down on the first 16 days. Some quick math on this looks like we were actually 1.6 AN so like I said, I am not trusting my math/memory but know we were well AN. During the Heat Wave, only 3 of the 7 days were double digit departures. June 6th was actually warmer departure wise than the 17th, 19th and 20th.
-
We were definitely well above average, but my ranking is based on memory and could be off. I thought it was 2.7-3AN. I am probably messing the math up on the ranking though I am sure we were well AN. It is hard to just do a ranking through 1/2 a month as the averages are lower.
-
Coming into the Heat Wave we were already top 10ish I believe. We are at 4 AN normal right now and were close to 3 AN prior to the heat wave unless I looked a day or two in and am forgetting. 19 of the 24 days have been AN so far this month. The high has been below 80 only 3 days. In contrast, at this time last year we had 12 days with highs below 80.
-
That is a great pic!
-
I have found that I need to save it as a smaller size but yea that complicates the whole thing. The whole experience is much better on a computer.
-
If you have the pic up on your computer or phone screen, take a screen shot then paste it in.
-
Was she one of the people who lifted the cup?
-
54 this AM.
-
Models were a little too cool 48 hours ago (for today and tomorrow)
-
2 Cups in a row!
-
@Itstrainingtime HRRR has a sneaky 90's day tomorrow for the HIA area of the LSV.
-
MDT has over 30 more 3+ 90-degree day streaks, since 1980, than Philly. Closeness to the Atlantic may be one factor. 78 for the high today. Down to 77 now.
-
I was also going to stop at Keystone candle to see Wicks the cat. He enjoys his pettings.
-
Interesting additional stat....it happened at THV yesterday.
-
If they lose tonight, I am going to game 7 to help them win.
-
If you change the 80 to 77 you get 3 at MDT (since 1980). So, it is too stringent for MDT as you suggested but not that far off. I think one heat wave a year is too often. Should be a 10 times in 50 years type event in my opinion.
-
Their point was that heat waves should be rare.
-
I agree heat waves should not be an event that happens 3x a year, but I still like using norms vs. set temps. Norms with a set minimum whether 95 or something else.
-
One way to see how soft the 90 three days option is, since 1980 MDT has reached 90 and above on 3 consecutive days 133 times (not 133 days, 133 times of 3 or more days.) That is 3 times per year when dividing it out to an average. Lester Holt would need to talk Heat Waves all summer...granted this run of 90 and over was longer than average coming in tied as the 13th longest since 1980. More fairly drastic stats, during the same 1980-2024 time frame LNS had 3 consecutive 90+ days 67 times or half of MDT.
-
Interesting comment and to tag on to that (I do not know the answer to your question) the article from 2001 noted that the original definition of a heat wave was too stringent (even higher than the 105/80 thing) for the North and West US because stations never met the criteria where as the southern stations met it several times a month; thus the need for location variables.
-
That is the question. I know of 3 accepted definitions. Over 90 for 3 or more consecutive days, 9 degrees above average for 5 or more consecutive days or this one above where the HI has to be over 105 for 2 or more days AND the lows have to remain 80 or above. MDT easily made #1, they made #2 as well though it was just by one degree on two of the days. They did not come close using the third more stringent definition. I do not believe LNS, HGR, THV made it using the second definition.
-
The AMS came up with this formula to determine Heat Waves with some averages (in this case the number exceeding what would be seen at the station 1% or less of the time) being used in most sections. Note only 2 days are needed for some definitions. I posted something like this a few years ago as a commentary/lead into discussion of the pitfalls in using the 90-degree mark when that mark is 5 or less degrees above normal (plus this definition uses HI not straight temp.) This is from 2001.
