Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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I am not sure I thought no one cares when we have a 15AN in the winter. My assumption is that the 13AN in the summer's uncomfortability and possible risk for heat exposure is the reason behind more people caring. I was just more interested in the variability and chances for either side.
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All that said, it is more likely for MDT to be 13 degrees BN for a high than it is for them to be 13AN using the current adjusted norms. This is surely (Don't call me Shirley) due to clouds and rain most days, has the factor of MDT moving their recording site and the Norms changing which is why I compared out the 69 and below number which is the much more closely aligned with hitting 100 as to historical chances.
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I guess the definition of big heat would need defined. Is 90-93 big heat? 3-6 degrees AN?
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Not counting today, MDT has reached 100 or higher in July 44 times in its history. 74 is the normal inverse to 100 on most days of July which feature a normal high of 87. There are few days at the start and end of July where the norm is 86. MDT has stayed 74 and below in July over 125 times in its history making it the much more common extreme temp using today's normal but....it has only happened 16 times since the year 2000 with the vast majority of the 74 and under days coming before 2000. The closer compare for the Number of 100 days stat, is July days MDT has stayed below 70 all time which is 38.
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Elliott has conceded: The persistent heat and humidity have even been too much for me, and that's saying something.
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Near 2PM....MDT 98 or 99, LNS 98, CXY 100, THV 98, HGR 98/99, ROU 95. Using official stations, the hyped up HRRR was about 1 or 2 degrees too warm on the 12Z run. It corrected down on the latest run. Quite a few hundreds on Wunder
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Outside the potential rain loss, usually the ridge push farther East in the Atlantic would be good news. Icon and CMC are not on board with it yet. But longer term the CMC and GFS grow the Bermuda Pig/SER right back in our faces off the SE coast.
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GFS is much warmer for this coming weekend as the SER's orientation/influence actually moves farther away from us than previously forecast leaving us much drier/less clouds. The ridge pushes farther away, and we got hotter...crazy weather.
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Usually, it is clouds or a bit higher humidity that intermingles into the equation. Typically, though temps peak over here later afternoon if no clouds due to the ground continuing to absorb heat. Some would argue about the sun being the highest in the sky around noon, but my experience has always between 3-4 being the peak many days.
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Good example, CXY is probably 98.
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It is rounded off/converted from C though. Usually when it gyrates between 2 numbers, it is the number in between....not always but usually. Even if they are 97 or 95, still good agreement. Usually those 3 stations are on separate temps. MDT now says 95 again but I still believe they are 96.
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It appears that MDT, LNS and THV all at 96 right now. A rare agreement. HGR 94, Rou 92.
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90/74
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Early 12Z's all favor MDT getting to 90 tomorrow....Pillow, Rou, etc do not. Pretty decent consistency that N/W of Harrisburg is a no, S/E is a yes.
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68 for the low. 71 out right now. Not too bad.
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Do you go Ninja if your area has restrictions?
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We have lots of clouds over here (but dry) and down to 85. 10 degree drop in an hour all because the yellow ball went away. The therm was not in the sun before or after the drop.
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HGR probably hit 100 today. MDT 99 or 100. LNS 97 or 98. When those small cells departed, temps in Franklin county took off matching yesterday's totals. Hi of 95 at Rou. Plentiful 100's again. Before the cells, temps were much more moderate. 104 in Walnut Bottom SW of Carlisle.
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Wowzer
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Will mark you down for snow on July 15th. Per Blizz this snow counts in 23/24 seasonal total.
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LNS drops from 91 to 68 between 3-5PM on Wed as depicted by the 18Z 3K. Not a forecast just an interesting model anomaly. Super Squall Line rolls through. A dangerous one as depicted.
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Whoever upholds the law of large numbers.
