Bubbler86
-
Posts
29,682 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Bubbler86
-
The monster which was July 2020 seems forgotten already.
-
Of note for July. Percentages below assume once per year just for display purposes of a ratio showing how often during that period. MDT hit 100 or above 39 times between 1888 and 1999....39/111 is 35%. They have hit 100 5 times since 2000 or 5/25=20% (not counting they may have today which would make it 24%) MDT stayed at 74 or below (between 1888 and 1999) ~ 175 times or 175/111 about 150%. MDT stayed at 74 or below (between 2000 and 2024) 16 times or 16/25 about 64%. Both percentages on ratio since 2000 are lower. Smaller dataset but 25 years is nothing to sneeze at. The 150 vs. 64 is drastic. A 234 percent difference. MDT has not had a July day stay 74 or below since 2018!
-
Agreed, but the 300% number still seems high to me. It is obviously going to be more common to go down into a number that is statistically possible. I feel the 300%/amount of instances is much more common before the last 25-50 years though. Which was my original point. Although it is still near 300% since 2000 the times it has happened on either side are by ratio much lower. Highs in the 90's are more common now than in the past and highs in the mid 70's are less common.
-
That was what I referenced above (I called it normal, you call it mean.). The mean changed and I was using the mean for this period we are in. Personally, there are all round numbers and it matters not what the mean was 50 years ago. In the entirety of MDT's history, it got 13 BN almost 300% more often than it got 13AN using today's means. Unfortunately, you are missing 50-60 years to compare to my numbers so I would have to change to 1941....since 1941 MDT has recorded 100/13An today's mean 29 times and 74/13BN 95 times so it is not far off the ratio for the entire data set. Close to 300%.
-
MDT is down to 91. Their 5 min readings say they hit 100 but it was only 2 brief readings. Sometimes those round down....will be interesting to see if they got it. I think they probably did.
-
It is actually closer to 300% not 400% but still high in my opinion. In all of MDT's July historical readings it has gone 13 or higher AN 44 times and 13 or below normal 125 times or close to 300% more likely to be 13BN vs 13AN. I understand the 13AN normal is bumping into our statistical possible max high but 300% is still a large difference. In January the same ratio between how often it got 13AN vs 13BN drops to 60-70%. I am using our current 30 year norm reading to do those numbers so trying to do them with all norm readings would require your python.
-
Very true. I feel like the point of my original post did not come across well. Stated in English, it used to be more normal for July days of 13 or more degrees BN than it is now.
-
Some skew but to go from approx. 60% more to 400% more is a jump. Maybe it is normal when you do your magic, but I still wanted to see the plain numbers out and in sight. I minimized the dataset to show that it is now more normal to go 3AN in July than 3BN.
-
MDT has to shut down at 120.
-
I started reading this and thought you were going to say the tracks melted today.
-
@Jns2183 I get that I am not comparing apples to apples with Jan and July. On earth we do not have a plane of possible temps that can extend out to any given number. During the winter we have much more room to go AN OR BN than we have room to go AN in the summer. But the ratio of how often it gets a certain number AN and BN should not be as skewed IMO. I have no issue with people saying 100 is a fantastical number because it is rare and is something to talk about. One more stat: July days it has hit 90 and above vs. days it has stayed 84 and below from 2010 up. It is now more common to hit 90 and above than it is to stay 84 and below.
-
Mike and I had a bet as to how many posts it would take before MJS would take the train home early to get into the fray.
-
The 1980's had 3 winters with no days 21 and below in Jan.
-
But, a lot of people do not care about that. These numbers are what Joe Weather watcher cares about (non-Met people). I am not trying to say the average at MDT is wrong vs. explain what the everyday person sees and feels regardless of how often. 100% agreed that the 13AN in July is much less common than the one in Jan but so is the 13 BN day...the ratio is just drastically different.
-
All of that is true as to the ice and such. I think the longevity of the cold is as much to blame as actual deviation on a day-to-day basis. We seem to rarely string together a real cold snap anymore. So, since 2000 here are the charts for Jan days it has stayed 26 and below and 21 and below. Then the same for the 1970's when you were growing up (as was I). Sample size is larger for the 2000's of course. I think these numbers show it was more common in the 1970's but not a ton IMO (especially the 26 and below stat.) The 2000's had a handful of years it did not happen.
-
It is much more common in the winter on both sides BUT the percentage of times it gets that far AN in the winter is much closer to the percentage of times it gets that far BN. I was using MDT's Normal of 39. Yes, it is much rarer to get to 100 but its deviation from normal is a very common occurrence...both sides of the fence, I guess.
-
Let's take Jan then and use 39 as the number since the normal high is 38-40 each day...and use 13 again for the deviation. That would mean days 52 and over vs. days 26 and below. The numbers are closer though the deviations are much more frequent. MDT Days 52 and over in Jan: 375ish MDT Days 25 and below in Jan: 550ish
-
I am not sure I thought no one cares when we have a 15AN in the winter. My assumption is that the 13AN in the summer's uncomfortability and possible risk for heat exposure is the reason behind more people caring. I was just more interested in the variability and chances for either side.
-
All that said, it is more likely for MDT to be 13 degrees BN for a high than it is for them to be 13AN using the current adjusted norms. This is surely (Don't call me Shirley) due to clouds and rain most days, has the factor of MDT moving their recording site and the Norms changing which is why I compared out the 69 and below number which is the much more closely aligned with hitting 100 as to historical chances.
-
I guess the definition of big heat would need defined. Is 90-93 big heat? 3-6 degrees AN?
-
Not counting today, MDT has reached 100 or higher in July 44 times in its history. 74 is the normal inverse to 100 on most days of July which feature a normal high of 87. There are few days at the start and end of July where the norm is 86. MDT has stayed 74 and below in July over 125 times in its history making it the much more common extreme temp using today's normal but....it has only happened 16 times since the year 2000 with the vast majority of the 74 and under days coming before 2000. The closer compare for the Number of 100 days stat, is July days MDT has stayed below 70 all time which is 38.
-
Elliott has conceded: The persistent heat and humidity have even been too much for me, and that's saying something.
-
Near 2PM....MDT 98 or 99, LNS 98, CXY 100, THV 98, HGR 98/99, ROU 95. Using official stations, the hyped up HRRR was about 1 or 2 degrees too warm on the 12Z run. It corrected down on the latest run. Quite a few hundreds on Wunder
-
Outside the potential rain loss, usually the ridge push farther East in the Atlantic would be good news. Icon and CMC are not on board with it yet. But longer term the CMC and GFS grow the Bermuda Pig/SER right back in our faces off the SE coast.
-
GFS is much warmer for this coming weekend as the SER's orientation/influence actually moves farther away from us than previously forecast leaving us much drier/less clouds. The ridge pushes farther away, and we got hotter...crazy weather.
