Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Some CWOPS in Franklin County have bypassed 100 for 3 days in a row.
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Yea, YTD always hides the summer droughts we have faced for years now. Good for ground water though. Ground water and the like is why Canderson is not D1 as of this Am.
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By then the yards and vegetation (farms) are done if drought is evident.
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Droughty 4 out of the last 5 on your graphic.
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The Western and Central LSV drought and tumbleweed areas took a hit yesterday. For Franklin County, this is the 3rd or 4th year out of the last 5 with a D2 designation as the half decade or more summer drought continues. Made it to 99 here.
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68 for the low, 72 right now. Have not had a low in the 70's in quite some time. I sure I hope I get some rain today. Upper 70's just after lunch on most models (here.) GFS sticking with a wet and generally BN highs next week.
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Some over 1" totals.
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Yea, your taxes LOL. We have been paying for my neighbor farmer every year since I have been here in 2018. Once D1 hits they get government relief. More for D2. Farmers are uber protected by the government. Without farmers, we are done as a country. The one year we had 1" total over the entire summer (June-Aug), the government paid him 2-4 Mill to destroy his crop as it could not have been harvested. I think he does have to pay some kind of fee to qualify...for people who do not buy insurance.
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HGR is 3" behind just for June and 1/2 of July. They have had about 1.6 or 1.7" during that time but that is not nearly enough over 6-7 weeks to combat this sun and heat. I heard an expansion of D2 is coming and maybe some D3 to our near south. Not one farmer I know here has irrigation.
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Yep. The convection lottery.
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You mean with bubbler?
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You have been ground zero this year.
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A little late for the colors coming out Thur.
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18Z GFS is back to a good ridge position and a wet/less hot pattern next week. Not comfortable per se just not well AN.
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Yep, even down to trend change for a bit from the late 70's to the early 90's. The high point trend confirms the overall trend.
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We could throw several graphs out, I picked the previous one because of my original comment about 74 in July. Here is the Mean. The high points (blue dots) since 1990'ish really drive this one home. Unprecedented except your favorite year in the 60's.
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Here is a graph of MDT summer days that stayed 74 or below for Max daily temps. Some ups and downs but the trend line is down. This was created using 10 year moving averages to make the line easier to read and see trends vs bumps. There was a resurgence of sort from the 70's-90's before it started dropping to its current historical all-time low. The 10 year moving average is down to 4 now whereas it never got below 7 before 2014.
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The monster which was July 2020 seems forgotten already.
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Of note for July. Percentages below assume once per year just for display purposes of a ratio showing how often during that period. MDT hit 100 or above 39 times between 1888 and 1999....39/111 is 35%. They have hit 100 5 times since 2000 or 5/25=20% (not counting they may have today which would make it 24%) MDT stayed at 74 or below (between 1888 and 1999) ~ 175 times or 175/111 about 150%. MDT stayed at 74 or below (between 2000 and 2024) 16 times or 16/25 about 64%. Both percentages on ratio since 2000 are lower. Smaller dataset but 25 years is nothing to sneeze at. The 150 vs. 64 is drastic. A 234 percent difference. MDT has not had a July day stay 74 or below since 2018!
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Agreed, but the 300% number still seems high to me. It is obviously going to be more common to go down into a number that is statistically possible. I feel the 300%/amount of instances is much more common before the last 25-50 years though. Which was my original point. Although it is still near 300% since 2000 the times it has happened on either side are by ratio much lower. Highs in the 90's are more common now than in the past and highs in the mid 70's are less common.
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That was what I referenced above (I called it normal, you call it mean.). The mean changed and I was using the mean for this period we are in. Personally, there are all round numbers and it matters not what the mean was 50 years ago. In the entirety of MDT's history, it got 13 BN almost 300% more often than it got 13AN using today's means. Unfortunately, you are missing 50-60 years to compare to my numbers so I would have to change to 1941....since 1941 MDT has recorded 100/13An today's mean 29 times and 74/13BN 95 times so it is not far off the ratio for the entire data set. Close to 300%.
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MDT is down to 91. Their 5 min readings say they hit 100 but it was only 2 brief readings. Sometimes those round down....will be interesting to see if they got it. I think they probably did.
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It is actually closer to 300% not 400% but still high in my opinion. In all of MDT's July historical readings it has gone 13 or higher AN 44 times and 13 or below normal 125 times or close to 300% more likely to be 13BN vs 13AN. I understand the 13AN normal is bumping into our statistical possible max high but 300% is still a large difference. In January the same ratio between how often it got 13AN vs 13BN drops to 60-70%. I am using our current 30 year norm reading to do those numbers so trying to do them with all norm readings would require your python.
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Very true. I feel like the point of my original post did not come across well. Stated in English, it used to be more normal for July days of 13 or more degrees BN than it is now.
