Bubbler86

Here in Franklin County we over 6" under normal. A pretty extreme figure considering May and June are two of the 3 wettest months. My Observations for the S Central part of the state is that models, especially the GFS, are understating temps very consistently especially days where it is sunny the majority of the day. So for next week I think the Euro is the best bet for forecasting at the moment. The 12Z Euro is still coming out on Pivotal but start of the week it still looks just as hot as last night's run. But your results of normally underachieving are not what we have seen over here IMO.

That's an interesting thought. I was not sure so did look up and confirm dry soil conducts heat more efficiently than wet. With that said I wonder how far down that theory applies to as most of this time of the year the soil will be dry just a day or so after it rains. But base don the Euro deception lots of back yard bulbs are going to break 100 next week. Also many of the members in the Eastern side of this forum have had near or above normal rain the last two months so different results possibly.

The HRRR provides Adams, York and Lancaster county some rain in a short bit.

Early May for us "dried up" folks out west but yes it looked great for a while with the wet and cool weather.

We are all getting old and very worried about our grass. LOL. Get off my grass!

Ouch.

Boy, all signs are indeed pointing to an old fashioned heat wave next week. Euro is still very hot Friday (GFS is not) but both models bring the goods next week. Definitely potential for some 100's. NWS used "ring of fire" in their AFD.

The Cashtown/Bubbler dry gulch express struck out today. We did just receive the notice from our water company stating that watering the lawn is no longer allowed due to forecast drought conditions. So like last year the midnight sprinkler guy will be coming to my yard.

Well all the guidance I just looked at suggests today is now our better shot for rain out this far west. HRR, NAM, GFS all bring showers "around" this afternoon. Tomorrow's rains all shoot by to the east or south now.

12 GFS Spins up a minor Surface Low off the SE coast and the interaction between it and the dying ULL low over New England allows for some decent rains Wednesday in and around the LSV and East. And this is after some bonus rain tomorrow. Edit-The Euro will have none of that nonsense though. Basically no rain for all of PA, except the far east, through July 10.

I still have hopes on tomorrow afternoon.

We need that ULL over New England to retrograde a bit more than forecast.

Adding May and June it looks like MDT is about 2" below normal during that period. You may be near your norm for that period with that much rain this month.

Unofficial again as my equipment is amateurish, which is why I frequently use a neighboring weather station to report, but we are about 6" behind for May and June. Average (whatever that means anymore) for May and June is about 9"or so and we have not broken 3" total for the last 7 weeks. Just bad timing at the start of growing season. MDT was in the same boat entering June but has had a good 5" of rain this month so far. I realize most of the LSV is not facing the same predicament.

Pretty extreme for you. Even worse than me. I have unofficially had about 2.5" since early May but the overly dry (but nice for getting out) weather has made that not nearly enough. The farmer I mentioned said his corn is about 1 foot short from where it should be. He is convinced we will need a dying 'Cane to save his crop. I think he can make it if we manage to get some summer type rains every few days but next two weeks look bad. Must be a stressful life...farming with no irrigation.

Yea, the earliness of the dry season this year is going to be problematic for some people. 2020 is the year of problems.

Hopefully. Next week plus look dry. I live beside a farmer and he said this is the worst start to the season for him in 40 some years (mostly corn). Unfortunately these random afternoon 1" downpours do not help him as much as an all day soaker.

We lost out last night.

Trenton got raked on pretty good. Philly missed out it appears.

Unfortunately it's the result the HRRR, Euro and NAM showed. So I am just wishcasting.

Flooding in West central pa. If that complex of storms makes it to us in 2 to 3 hours that will be a nice surprise.

I think any given area in the S Central and S/E PA area is going to have to get lucky to have any substantial rain in the next 10 days. GFS likes tomorrow afternoon but could not find any other support. Westerly winds gusting to 30 here right now.

76 degrees at 7:15AM. Still looks pretty dry in my neck of the woods. Northern PA does better.

Yea for me I was in the sun and the breeze is just blowing warm air at this point. Not record breaking heat but came in feeling like I was hotter than I wanted to be.

Was just outside for 30 min. It's hot out. May get a surprise 90 here today if clouds do not stop the rise. 87 right now.