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Thanks. FYI a rogue storm hit Middletown 30 minutes ago.

That presentation by the 12Z 3K NAM looks strange for the Eastern areas, not to mention total rainfall is pathetic. Example, most of Delware gets nothing. except for an East to West stripe near Dover, DE. Areas in the FFW . although they will flood with much less rainfall, are still only in the area of .25 inches or under. General coverage is very eratic.

Odds of wetter increased by Mount Holly. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 105 PM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021 The next perturbation moves into the region tonight and appears to be positioned slightly south of the first one. Guidance has trended wetter with this vort max, as it appears to be interacting a little more favorably with the larger-scale trough moving into the Lakes Erie/Ontario region by 12z Monday versus what models have been depicting in previous runs. The GFS/CMC and most of the higher- resolution guidance are signaling for precipitation to break out in a band near/south of the I-76 corridor this evening into the overnight hours, with the CMC and some of the hi-res guidance indicating a quarter to half inch of rainfall possible in this axis. This is noticeably higher than recent guidance, and even the 00z ECMWF has become a little more bullish (though hardly "aggressive"). Given this distinct trend, did bump PoPs southeast of the I-95 corridor during the tonight period, but kept them fairly modest for now pending later guidance.

And, create an almost perfect surfing scenario for various East Coast beaches after the well timed cold frontal passage. West winds and awesome incoming swells. https://magicseaweed.com/Wildwood-Surf-Report/392/

Yep ! TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2021 TORNADO WATCH 483 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC001-003-005-020200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0483.210901T1640Z-210902T0200Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX $$

Watch that cluster of heavy storms North of Richmand as it moves NNE. Tornado watch is up a few miles to my West in Maryland. Hope to get active later this afternoon. Maybe the tornado watch will be expanded to cover the three counties in Delaware later.

Not a drop of rain here. Northern Delaware getting good storms. Heard thunderstorms last 4 hours as they moved just North of my area.

Robust WAR makes that depiction logical. Never thought heaviest rains would go South of us. Same issue as in winter with inland runners and Great Lake tracks. I am happy with one to two inches.

Next up is the stadium effect.

Latest satellite shows rapid intensification.

All systems GO !

Not a great link, but it looks like a beast already. Massive cloud shield currently, and incredible /SST energy source in its path. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=EXTENT&length=24

Ah....................... the anti-concensus approach. Recently during the past five winters that thinking has worked out rather well most of the times.

Tremendous flood potential for the Western Gulf states, not too mention the wind threat/ storm surge from an extreme Cat 4 or even 5 hurricance.

Second storm in the series just went through, which intensified and has prompted a SSW for points South of me. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 714 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northern Kent County in central Delaware... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 714 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Green Spring, or 8 miles south of Middletown, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. * Locations impacted include... Dover, Middletown, Smyrna, Camden, Clayton, Cheswold, Woodside, Hartly, Rising Sun-Lebanon, Hazlettville, Delaney Corner, Dover Base Housing, Dover Speedway, Green Spring, Rising Sun, Townsend, Wyoming, Odessa, Kenton and Little Creek.

Big time storm here. Moving SE from Elkton, MD. into Middletown and nearby areas.

Any thoughts on September ? With a robost WAR reinforced with warm Atlantic SSTs it appears the usual heat/warmth of summer extends well into the Fall. Here is the recently issued Accu-weather Canadian Fall forecast which indicates warmer than normal over wide areas.

Thats why I go to Wildwood. The reason is two fold, the man made grade used is much steeper, versus natural beach slopes, and the quality of the source is different meaning they used pebbles at one time mixed in. This is a good link. https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/local/2015/07/03/blame-renourishment-crushing-waves/29665321/ Here is a look at generated wave heights with the storm this weekend.

FYI. From Accuweather feed: Water temperatures were close to the peak for the year and were inviting in all of those places. As of Thursday, the ocean temperatures off the Outer Banks were 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit. The water temperature at beaches in Atlantic City was 79.0 F, 74.3 F in the waters off Montauk and 75.6 F near Nantucket. However, AccuWeather forecasters warn that dangers such as rough surf and strong rip currents will be a concern through Saturday in this zone. A 50-year-old father and his 28-year-old son were killed in a rip current near the Oak Island Pear in North Carolina on Wednesday afternoon, according to WECT. Bystanders pulled the father from the water, but emergency responders were unable to save him. A two-hour search ensued for his son, who was still missing, but his body was later recovered. According to data from NOAA, more people have died as a result of rip currents on a yearly basis over the last decade than from lightning strikes or due to impacts from extreme cold combined.

Without researching it in depth I would think that ship reports came into play.

Fascinating loop, ( focus on the second loop not the first) , espcially if you run it and pause it. I like to look at the end of the run/ loop, at that feature moving across Canada, and into the Northeast. Rather robust at that range.

Looking at the surf zone wave models currently, it appears that some legit surfing potential for those experienced enough will occur this weekend along the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. Of course I favor the NJ beaches because decade long beach repleneshmnet along the DE beaches has caused more of a shore break to occur. Wave modeling indicating 5 Foot waves with a period of 14 seconds arriving from the SE on Saturday with a more West wind off the land on Sunday . Still iffy though on the exact wave forecasts, as the various wave models are still in a bit of disagreement.

Some pretty nasty ripe tides may show up tomorrow on the New Jersey beaches such as AC., Wildwood, etc. and then progress South to Delaware beaches on Saturday it appears.

1.57 inches here. Not too shabby, however, the rainfall distribution very scattered in nature.

The famous and destrcutive Hurricane of 1938 was moving at an incredible 47 mph. Wow ! On September 21, 1938, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. The storm developed near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, tracking across the Atlantic and up the Eastern Seaboard. The storm hit Long Island and Southern Connecticut on September 21, moving at a forward speed of 47 mph!