frd

There were many comments about five days ago that centered on the complexity of the pattern between Jan 21 st and early Feb. Things will not be decided until later. I mentioned analogs, but they mean nothing really in the grand scheme of things presently. Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrast next week.

He should apply to BammWX

Whats the surprise, the analogs indicated this days ago. Most snowfall the next 15 days in VA. and below. Wasted cold for our area.

Everyone wants hopium.

Some conversations in other forums here, and online as well, mentioning the pattern between Jan 20 th and Jan 31 st favors the deep South. Analog storms during this time period in the past, based on the major features had heavy snow in VA., NC and SC. And, very little snow in ILG, Philly, Baltimore, DC., NYC and Boston.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092406022967591 Tomer had stated he thinks the trough axis was going to move West in time ( ie. Feb ) and we would experience retrogression, however now I am wondering with newer data does it stay situated closer to the East , as you mentioned. This would add to our window of potential snow events. Meanwhile Bamwx posted that the + TNH pattern may persist in Feb. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1878076865157476541

Should be interesting model runs in the days ahead, and I look forward to cold smoke scenarios

Yikes, what a a drop. Also, combine that - EPO with a favorable elongated PV, and it ups the odds of a cold powder storm later in the month.

Arriving from Siberia to your house soon. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747 Eric Webb @webberweather <The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.>

If you look at the blocking regimes and observe the NAO there is significant potential for a classic Mid Atlantic SECS event, during the favored window of Jan 18 th to Jan 25 th . Current forecast do not show any deep dives in the AO or NAO indices. NAO getting ready to reverse near Jan . 20 th The driver is the EPO. As Tomer states the increased risks of SECS can extend days past the end time of the Greenland High regime. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092022277636324

.50 inch here Very pretty. What a great week winter wise.

Appears most of the action including cold /snow is up North and NW. Dismal snow map regardless of whether it is useful or not. Maybe its just the GFS.

In this area we still appear to have a decent delivery method for cold. I am not worried about rain at this time for the potential system near the 20 th. Meanwhile, nationwide snow cover continues to expand, more so with the southern system next several days.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1877356736488652849 Tomer likes late Jan for Mid Atlantic snowstorm potential

Any time for long range tidbits ?

Wow, more than double from Middletown, DE. Be careful driving. Wind chills this morning are rather nasty. A true deep winter morning. Temp here curretnly at 20 F.

What was your snowfall total ? Here I measured 4 inches. We do have snow blowing across corn fields

Next 7 days look dry, but cold. Thought we had a chance with this one, but looking slim at the moment.

clickbait

Yes, the lows are trending West and clustering, similiar to the GEFS earlier, just not as robust. Interesting and hopeful to say the least.

Upper energy rolling through soon. Banding developing to my West and NW. Maybe get an additional inch.

How can you interpret whether the GEFS it not simply following the leader ?

Remind what you said a few days ago about the accuracy of the GFS versus the ECM in Canada with the Northern jet in various regimes, PNA/EPO?

My location as well, forecast was 6 to 8. Total here was 3.5 inches. Saturday has potential, might even trend colder. Mount Holly states - It will still take several model runs to get a handle on this system. For now, will follow NBM PoPs and carry slight chance-chance PoPs over the area Friday night through Saturday, and even though forecast high temperatures are above freezing on Saturday, based on wet-bulb temperatures, the dominant p-type would be snow. High pressure returns on Sunday and Monday.

Without question. Many clustered West versus earlier far offshore.