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Rather impressive heat fluxes during the next 10 days.

Check this out -NAO and then the SWWE Long duration - AO and - NAO upcoming

I believe this raises the bar for cold and stormy weather here, while enhancing cold air intrusions after Jan 20 th. Robust agreement here.

SSWE becoming more and more likely. AO expected to dive soon, and then we await on the after effects of the warming. Too soon to know where the coldest anomalies are directed to.

Your in top form @CAPE. Appreciate the updates. Not posting as much because I have suffered medical issues and surgery, but your posts cheer me up every morning. I am really hopeful for snowfall in early Jan. Things looking better and better.

Might gamble and take a PTO day for Jan. 8th. The second disturbance sure looks promising at this range . Upstream looks better as well leading to the colder outcome.

That was a great memory. So much excitment. I remember Accu weather with a forecast of 6 to 8 inches for the beaches of southern NJ the day before. This might have been the storm the Canadian sniffed out that JB claimed his greatest victory to that point calling for a I 95 snowstorm when all others were a scrapper. Watching that snow shield move North and forecasts changing was a big thrill. I also recall the winds after the storm blowing snow back into areas that were cleared. A great memory psu !

Seems very typical in years past. I am sure he is celebrating. My Christmas day high temp has increased to 55 degrees, not too bad, however, still waiting on a white Christmas. By Friday we get back to normal temps.

At least he is bullish on Feb, as you are, and believes we have very significant - NAO later in Jan and Feb.

The weekend rule. Sure looks nice.

SSWE in Jan. has historical analogs as support.

Stongest signal yet for a major SSWE. We all know we do not require one to have meaningful snow events, however, concerns of a very cold and very strong PV are much diminshed currently. What this may help is, raising the odds of significant winter weather in ealy to mid Feb matching up with previous MECS.

They have gone cold and snowy in the East the last three years and have done poorly. This year the forecast from BAMM WX is a warmer than usual winter, and below normal snowfall. They believed in the extreme - EPO forecasts from a couple years back and that did not work out. Have to see how the season ends and whether they will be correct.

Ah, its the @40/70 Benchmark Mid Atlantic storm set-up. Two bad its two weeks out, however, moving in the right direction for sure. We shall be tracking in early 2024

I think they run daily now.

This might effect how fast temps get back to normal and dare I say below normal up North after Jan 1 st. The cryosphere is looking sick. Decadal low snow extent.

Read Canada will have + 20 departures, thats insane and sad.

Some are mentioning the Jet Extension will cause the - PDO to become more positive during the next three weeks. Are you considering this possible outcome?

Whatever gets us snow . But seriously, maybe the transition starts in early to mid January and then improves from there similar to 1965-66. Looking for improvements in the Pac, but also the HL and the NAO region by mid Jan. As you said, if we do not start to see things improve in the long range guideance by the first of the year then we can really start to worry, however currently I remain hopeful.

Another modeling failure. Persistence greater than modeling. Looks like well into Jan. regarding any chance at all for meaningful snowfall. Extreme Pacific Trough regime well in Jan.

ensemble mean PT index at 1.5 sigma at a 2 week lead is wild according to Dr Simmon Lee. Last December we were in a robust Greenland High regime from December 2 to December 19th then we flipped to a Pacific trough regime for the last week of December. The PT regime is associated with atmospheric rivers into the West Coast and very warm temperatures across the continent. Going to take time to recover from this. Nino Decembers are warm and in general recent Decembers have trended warmer. But the current PT regime is rather remarkable.

The last three Decembers, at this time of the month, North America snowfall was robust. Then as late December arrived North America snowfall coverage declined rapidly. The pattern after that drop off was not conducive for sustained cold or snowfall. What is interesting now is that snowfall extent in North America is at decadal lows. Say what you want about about El Ninos, that they tend to produce above average snowfall in our region. As for tempertures, air masses are not frigid, just cold enough to snow. I am interested in seeing how NA snow cover trends in the weeks ahead. Certainly I would imagine to get seasoanl temps here, we would like to see a better cryosphere in our source regions to deliver cold air. Looks like it is going to take a while.