frd

Another sub forum poster mentioned that despite a general - PNA in December, ( if that were to occur ) leads to the following Jan.'s PNA to average positive. This is under similiar ENSO conditions.

Looking at the models this morning, the MJO, and the various indicies I am thinking Pac might need some time to improve moving into December. What are your updated thoughts on the evolution of the Pac, such as the EPO and the PNA domains. Of note to me is how active the rainfall has been in California recently.

Thats does not seem to match what I am looking at. There are many MJO models and many possible outcomes. As @psuhoffman mentioned a couple days ago, having a great Pac in December, versus a - NAO is a more realistic path to cold and snow in our area, and I totally agree. The Pac has screwed us several times in recent years and the - NAO is hard to predict. Its occurrence ( -NAO ) does not in any way guarantee snow. The block one year dived far to the SW that we warmed up and Texas had a blizzard. Another year it linked with the SER, and yet another year Canada was so warm the -NAO was useless. I would say a lot in December depends on the Pac. If things fall apart there then the hopes of a wintry December will not happen.

What are your thoughts on the SST profile in the NW Atlantic, North Central Atlantic outside of the MJO, QBO and strat in regards to the appearence of the warm, cold, warm tripole shown in this image below ? ( - NAO ) Is it significant, or will it change in a week or two and be meaningless ?

I don't give a crap about the Canadian warming later in the month, say what you want, I just like the pretty colors.

There was also this Rehoboth Beach experienced a significant blizzard and "bomb cyclone" on January 4, 2018, which brought heavy snow, strong winds, and whiteout conditions. The storm resulted in a blizzard warning for Sussex County, an estimated 8 to 12 inches of snow, and a Level 1 driving warning issued by the Governor.

Certainly seems that way. Little skill outlook, more so just climo, Nina and warming.

Focus on Jan 2026 from Allan Huffman @RaleighWx I posted my winter forecast on my patreon page with reasoning last week. But I will post my maps here just for reference/accountability. Last year my winter forecast stunk so take it for what it is worth.

Lastest updated snowfall probs for December from the ECMWF. This is the fourth month in a row with sub normal December snowfall. I would think with all the changes taking place over the HL during the next weeks a lot can change in regards to December snowfall in the East. .

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx Models debating speed of -EPO arrival with American fastest and European slowest; both have exhibited competitive skill in past 30 days, but AIFS ensemble middle ground may be best answer.

Impressive, but next week we warm up.

The delivery of the coldest air missed us to the SW and West. The SE and other locations had the largest negative departures plus snow showers. You can see below

AO forecasts continue more negative, now at - 3 SD

Thunder and lightning here. Not as crazy as where @CAPE is located, but much more rain than forecasted. Still more to arrive from my SW shortly.