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Not very, but at least it shows it supports an active cold period in Feb. .

I settle for 1 in 5 even .

Prepare for the Day After Tomorrow script. We going Deep Deep winter if PV modeling and blocking is correct. Reload after reload. QBO doing its part. Some AO ensembles members take the AO below 6 SD.

CFS has 5 Nor'easters after this one. all snow

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 39m Hope you're adjusting to the extreme cold this weekend. Not much good news. It will be COLDER next weekend for locations that get heavy snowfall in the next 48-hours. The snow won't melt but act to enhance radiational cooling at night with calm winds and high pressure.

West based Greenland blocking might be in play due to the strat background state taking place during this time period. Would love to get a Manitoba Mauler to pop off NC and explode and do a loop de loop off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Been waiting decades.

This lines up with the mid Feb period of interest, give or take a few days. Heinrich Leopold @LeopoldHeinrich Arctic temps recovered +6C from a steep -25C fall. I am expecting a steep rise, which will trigger the next cold wave in February. This is confirmed by zonal winds falling until Feb. #natgas

No signs at all that the AO will return to positive any time soon, while another significant drop in the AO may occur in mid Feb. Deep winter locked in!

Looks like more - NAO in Feb. Commodity Wx Group@commoditywx MJO could make move toward warmer mid-late December route (orange line below) or it could continue its pathway favored by subseasonal models (blue line). Meanwhile, stratospheric warming in North Atlantic should favor more -NAO blocking for February.

Chris Martz@ChrisMartzWX ·7h Folks, I don’t hype anything. But what’s coming down the pike this week is REAL DEAL cold. After our fancy winter storm exits, blob after blob of Arctic air associated with the tropospheric polar vortex will rotate through the Lower 48. Subzero wind chills will reach the Gulf Coast. Single digit temperatures can be expected in northern Louisiana and Mississippi on both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Washington, D.C. may not get above freezing for the next 7-10 days. For perspective, the last time D.C. spent a week in subfreezing temperatures was from December 16 to 25, 1989 (10 days). That was 36 years ago. It has happened only 17 times since 1872, and only two of those stretches have been in the last 85 years. Bundle up, kiddos.

Some long range models, and forecasters, are calling for a very active and cold mid Feb period, despite a warm up prior to this period. Maybe we do not even get a true warm up, as the East will be the last to moderate.

You are in good company. Tomer Burg@burgwx · 3h There is a legitimate winter weather storm potential to monitor for the East Coast in early February. The large-scale ingredients are there: - Departing antecedent trough suppressing the baroclinic zone and acting as a transient 50/50 low - SW US trough entering the Gulf - Potential north stream trough being transported into the central/southern US downstream of western North American ridging There is still a lot of uncertainty and a suppressed low track is quite possible... but there is a *very* high-end ceiling for a major snowstorm if one does materialize out of these ingredients.

Will prolong the deep arctic mass across a large area of the US and allow for less moderation. Almost a cold feedback cycle.

Nees to be stronger, more snow for the Eastern areas. I want to wish the impossible, an all snow MECS, last time for me was Dec 2009.

Don't see this every day. Days 6 to 10 temps, during this time period is where a powerful low pressure system may effect the deep South and then turn the corner as a MECS. General theme here might be a colder scenario for snow further South and East.