frd
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About frd

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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KILG
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Location:
Middletown, DE
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Very sad news. Rest in peace Rodger.
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83 and hot here ! But, at least no bugs just yet and a DP of only 38.
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I have not seen the sun since a week ago last Friday. I need the sunshine vitamin ( actually a hormone )
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I feel like we are returning to the endless cloud cover of the Spring and summer last year. Large parts of the Country recorded much below average sunshine compared to normal. Moss, mildew, fungus and just plain gross.
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WPO set to dive to levels not seen in many years.
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If the winds happen as modeled here, the Blizzard warnings for Kent and Sussex DE. counties would likely be expanded North to New Castle county in Northern DE.
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February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
frd replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
But, thats the same snow from three weeks ago. No snow the last three weeks, but the impressive cold allowed for records to be broken in many areas for measurable snow cover. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
frd replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
You really can not use the operational GFS in a long range thread. Maybe it is experiencing a fall out in verification scores, but using it at long lead times without ensemble support and worse factoring the Op without other model input at long leads is futile. Best used as a low percentage input in a mix of other models such as the ECM ensembles, CMC, EPS, etc. and AI models. That is why even when it shows a snowstorm for many runs in a row it is still likely incorrect or vica versa as well. -
Weak sauce here as well, no snow showers last night or squalls, no extreme wind gusts so far, maybe a gust to 38 to 44 mph. All in all a typical deep winter day. The most impressive thing is the snow cover that remains, starting the third week of snow cover tomorrow, have not seen the grass in a couple weeks.
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February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
frd replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Some changes in the longrange AO. Not going as positive. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
frd replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hodhodata@statistics@Statisticizer · 16h #USA Outlook | 5–14 March (Synoptic Focus) The composite analyses for early–mid March depict a strongly amplified hemispheric pattern, with persistent negative 500-mb height anomalies spanning much of the central and eastern United States, and a pronounced long-wave trough anchored over the continent. This configuration is highly efficient at tapping Arctic air and driving southward cold-air advection well beyond typical late-winter latitudes. The evolution and depth of the trough, combined with a strengthened polar jet and downstream blocking signals, closely resemble classic setups associated with major Northwest and Great Plains blizzard episodes. While the exact placement of surface cyclogenesis will govern snowfall distribution, the synoptic backdrop favors one or more significant cold blasts, potentially accompanied by strong winds and wintry precipitation where moisture and lift overlap. As the pattern progresses, attention shifts to possible secondary reinforcements of cold into the central and eastern U.S., with spillover risks toward the Southwest depending on trough phasing and ridge response upstream. Overall, the signal points to high-impact, episodic cold intrusions rather than a quiet transition into spring, warranting close monitoring as March unfold -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
frd replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
AO and NAO are way less negative -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
frd replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Absolutely not. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
frd replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Pretty and Cold enough! Trending better. -
February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
frd replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
I approve of this and this time period does have potential .
