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Some changes in the longrange AO. Not going as positive.

Hodhodata@statistics@Statisticizer · 16h #USA Outlook | 5–14 March (Synoptic Focus) The composite analyses for early–mid March depict a strongly amplified hemispheric pattern, with persistent negative 500-mb height anomalies spanning much of the central and eastern United States, and a pronounced long-wave trough anchored over the continent. This configuration is highly efficient at tapping Arctic air and driving southward cold-air advection well beyond typical late-winter latitudes. The evolution and depth of the trough, combined with a strengthened polar jet and downstream blocking signals, closely resemble classic setups associated with major Northwest and Great Plains blizzard episodes. While the exact placement of surface cyclogenesis will govern snowfall distribution, the synoptic backdrop favors one or more significant cold blasts, potentially accompanied by strong winds and wintry precipitation where moisture and lift overlap. As the pattern progresses, attention shifts to possible secondary reinforcements of cold into the central and eastern U.S., with spillover risks toward the Southwest depending on trough phasing and ridge response upstream. Overall, the signal points to high-impact, episodic cold intrusions rather than a quiet transition into spring, warranting close monitoring as March unfold

AO and NAO are way less negative

Absolutely not.

Pretty and Cold enough! Trending better.

I approve of this and this time period does have potential .

Didn't an event similar to what might be coming up happen during the winter of 14 15 or 13 14. A very robust cold front went through with a period of snow squalls that left about an inch or two of snow in a extremely short period of time.

The - AO on the rise. Have to see late month's reaction to the strat. Its been a crazy ride so far.

Crack

This might be the March that delivers. Will have a better idea of that in a couple weeks. OMG to last time in 2018 , wow !!!

Interesting happenings as you are aware way up top with the strat warming causing more pressure on the AO going forward. I read this will also manifest in Greenland blocking, almost re-cycles through the runs into late Feb. We just need for things to go right for us. I am almost tempted to think that mid to late Feb could feature another severe arctic outbreak and powerful cyclone in the East.

Would be ironic if there is a huge storm and its rain after 4 weeks of relentless cold. Seen that outcome here over the past decades a few times. Thr block can be your best friend or worst enemy.