frd

Crack

This might be the March that delivers. Will have a better idea of that in a couple weeks. OMG to last time in 2018 , wow !!!

Interesting happenings as you are aware way up top with the strat warming causing more pressure on the AO going forward. I read this will also manifest in Greenland blocking, almost re-cycles through the runs into late Feb. We just need for things to go right for us. I am almost tempted to think that mid to late Feb could feature another severe arctic outbreak and powerful cyclone in the East.

Would be ironic if there is a huge storm and its rain after 4 weeks of relentless cold. Seen that outcome here over the past decades a few times. Thr block can be your best friend or worst enemy.

As you stated, signs of some STJ in this period possibly.

Just too much blocking across the top, sounds like even mid-month when things change out West we might have issues, but there is some optimism. Tomer Burg @burgwx This is as ripe as weather patterns get for persistent cold and low-latitude snow in the eastern US. Not only is there a western North American ridge, which drives northerly flow advecting frigid air from Canada south into the US, but there is a broad region of high-latitude blocking with a zonally (west-east) oriented corridor of below normal heights. This kind of pattern is more favorable for significantly suppressing the low track to the south and preventing cyclones from cutting too far north, as opposed to -NAO episodes where the negative height anomalies to the south are smaller in scale with a mean trough axis east of the East US. Tomer Burg @burgwx · 2h As we head into mid-February, we'll see the pattern starting to change as the North Pacific troughing that's been locked in place and driving the western North American ridge breaks down. This will support troughing in the West Coast - perhaps finally breaking the prolonged Rockies snow drought - but what happens farther to the east is a big wild card. Typically, western US troughs mean eastern US ridging - but with strong Greenland blocking persisting with lingering antecedent airmass, the large-scale pattern may favor another cross-county winter storm if this signal persists and subtropical Pacific moisture advected into the US overruns an already suppressed baroclinic zone over the eastern half of the US.

Commodity Wx Group@commoditywx Tracking next North Pacific stratospheric warming suggests another Alaska ridge spike chance by middle February, similar to what just happened.

Weakening vortex

I am getting older by the day