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Birds~69

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Posts posted by Birds~69

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Take it for what it's worth, watching ch6 (accu-weather) noon news. They have Philly to Allentown in the 6-10" range then Allentown further 10-15". I'll give them credit for throwing a accumulation map out there but seems a tad low for the Burbs...I think people between Philly/Allentown will see more than 10".

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

    I agree. 6” in the city is very likely. I personally wonder about the N solutions because of the confluence. But we’ll see. I better at least prepare for 10-12”+  here in Royersford. 

    When I lived in Royersford I never did as well as I thought I should? (Elevation?  240') I only did slightly better than my folks in Horsham...

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

    This doesn’t have the duration or strength even close to either of them. The qpf maps will be too Juiced. I’m excited too, but I think 24” Max is where expectations should be. 

    40"+ on those maps is completely nuts and unrealistic...25- 30" would be huge stretch. Upper teens/low 20s should be the max...

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Just now, Albedoman said:

    i just cannot believe these snow maps. I all my years on this forum, I have never seen a clown map show such high snow totals. Even we get half of this, it is an ass kicking storm event with many hours of blizzard/whiteout  condition as and record setting hourly snowfall rates and convective ( thunders snow) banding.  This will be a storm to remember like 93 and 96 if it pans out. 

    55161FF5-FC6F-4B36-859F-2639F98C100C.png

     

    Tread lightly...

    • Weenie 1

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

    Throw out the GFS. That isn’t happening. In fact if the snow map looks anything like tonight’s run I’ll video tape me running nude down broad street. Philly will be in that 5-10 range most likely. Their biggest issue will be subsidence/mix. In fact I’d venture to say the city will see heavier snow rates in the front end of the storm than during the peak. There’s going to Be many jealous posters on here most likely during Wednesday night. Not that 5-10 is bad at all lol. Just sayin
     

    That sounds about right. Once in the Burbs things will increase quite a bit IMO...

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    I wouldn't rule out the mix line getting to my area in Central Bucks but there will be enough moisture to provide snow depth prior to AND after the mix line punches thru then falls back. And that's still an IF the line gets this far N and W.

    I'll be a little shocked if we don't hear pings/mix for a short time but minimal...it always happens but changes back to snow relatively quick. Especially as it pulls away...

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

    Well, will be interesting to compare to other short range guidance. Sref etc. I just took a peek at the rpm model, can't post that, but it doesn't have the sleet pocket at the 72 hour mark (end of run). It does have a small sleet pocket over western VA similar to the NAM, but then that line doesn't extend out into PA as the NAM does. Perhaps suggests a potential for a brief period of sleet or ice in a mostly snow event. Definitely does not echo the NAMs craziness though. 

    Believe it or not the NAM has had "wins" but it's such an outlier right now. Give it a day it will come around...

    • Like 1

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    That silly model is hell bent on giving us a major sleet event. All by itself it appears. Im fairly certain we can chalk it up to the NAM doing typical NAM stuff at range. If you follow the 500mb vortices maps and compare with 18z there are improvements until about hour 54 irt slightly better confluence, slower departing hp, and better organization/tilt to the bowling ball coming across the Plains. Then at 54 hrs the surface gets all wonky. By this time tomorrow we should have a classic NAMming under our belts.

    Oh yeah, I've been around the block. It's not within range and doing silly things probably till later tomorrow/early Tuesday. 

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