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Birds~69

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    December 9-10, 2018 Wintry Weather Threat

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

    No model analysis here, just a thought on our overall weather since spring: It wants to precipitate.

    Sure, this event may very well end up squashed/squished/slide off the coast. But jeez, it seems we can't go more than a few days w/o something falling from the sky. I'm not expecting a HECS or MECS, (heck, it might just be a cold rain). But given the pattern since spring, it's hard to believe we'll end up high & dry.

    You took the words right outta my mouth.

    I can't get as technical as many but I see patterns/setups etc and for longest time (or so it seems) mother nature wants to drop some kind of precip on us. Let's just hope we get the precip and cold(er) air to connect so snow/wintry precip will occur...

    December 9-10, 2018 Wintry Weather Threat

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    Yeah probably a little early....I thought that too after I made it but heck it keeps things organized if anything. My January 2016 blizzard thread was started with even more lead time iirc. The bigger ones tend to be modeled well in advance. Doesnt always mean a hit for us but guidance usually sees all of the ingredients.

    Yep, the large ones are on radar well in advance and stay the course (for the most part) till the event actually occurs. Let's see what happens w/this one.

    Any wintry event this early is a bonus. I'll take a 1-2" storm or a snow/mix to rain....doesn't matter.

     

    • Like 1

    December 9-10, 2018 Wintry Weather Threat

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    Point taken but c'mon Red, you have been around long enough and you do this almost every LR storm threat every year.  Models back off from a near-perfect scenario 7 days out, people go into a frenzy and post how they knew tracking was a waste of their time, lead time shortens to 4 days and positive trends re-emerge. Whether that happens here or not I dont know but this isn't DOA by a long shot. I know your post wasnt throwing in the towel u were just lol'ing about the timing factor but stay tuned on this one....too many pieces in play here and ingredients are all still there. 

    GEFS clustering closer to coast and the GEPS also have a camp that would impact our region (havent dissected the EPS yet). Not overly concerned one way or the other yet. And tbh I dont want to be in the bullseye right now so the shifting around on guidance works for me. Rather an intense nor'easter South of the region than trying to get an OV cutter low to shift for the better. 

    Happens every year and I'm not the least bit discouraged at this point. I'll be shocked if I don't see positive trends in the coming days. You may have started the thread a tad early but hell let's wing it and see what happens. We already have a decent storm under our belts and the potential for another before mid Dec...that's a solid start.

    December 9-10, 2018 Wintry Weather Threat

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    0z suite brings smiles for SE PA. Bullseye still south of us on gfs's and cmc...heavy band central VA thru DC into DE and part of SJ. Ukmet starting to honk.

    Also Euro is another solid hit for SE PA.

    Where are all of the regular posters? I know there arent a ton of us but this threat has legs.

    That's probably what we want at this time then a little by little movement N over the coming days.

    Nice to see the Euro on board...

    • Like 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    Euro just woofed for the Dec 8-11 potential. However it also hasn't exactly been "the King" at this range since the upgrade. Solid signal for tracking potential though.

    I'll take it even if it's false hope...just something to somewhat track for the time being.

    E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    Luckily today is looking like an under performer for most of SE PA. Don't think anyone will see an inch out of this based on the current radar which is good. Rain just began here in Trenton. Interestingly the HRRR, 3k NAM, and RGEM all print out 1-1.5" across lower SE PA into NJ. Will be interesting to see if they verify because right now, not looking too impressive.

    I think the radar looks decently impressive w/yellows and some lite reds forming and moving our way.

    Mod rain here but the clouds have lowered/darkened...53F

    rd2.jpg

    E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    I think the models are useless past day 10 right now for LR forecasting. You said it previously, I am also concerned that when the atlantic looks good, the pac is crap and vice versa. We are going to need both to score in December imo. Next week is looking less torchy though imo. AN sure, I don't think we'll see huge departures though like previously thought. With the volatility of this pattern, we are going to see big changes past day 7 almost every run... very difficult forecast for december that's for sure. Could see it being a great start to the season or could see us getting shut out as well.  One thing for sure though is I believe it will be active storm wise, whether it is snow or rain will be the big ?. Need the NAO to go majorly - if we want the storm track further S/e. Right now, looks like cutter after cutter. With temps around normal. Exactly what I feared tbh...

    I'd rather get miss after miss (off shore) than cutter after cutter.

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