Birds~69

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wasn't his first guess map posted 2 map changes ago?

That's what I thought? I guess it's an update on his guess with further guesses to come.... 

5 minutes ago, mrweissm said:

Many of the SJ vaccine sites have already cancelled for Monday.  Check the specific sites website for details 

Updated 4 hours ago...looks like they'll be open? But yeah, check the website or call. My sister lives in NJ.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021/01/are-covid-vaccine-sites-going-to-be-open-if-it-snows.html

DT not giving up w/the 12"+ around here...

Central Jersey...bam!

42 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Oddly enough Ch10 going w/the same 6-9". First off 6-9" is not a normal range and Ch6 and Ch10 usually don't have the same exact amounts..kinda strange.

CBS3: 5+" Philly and local burbs

FOX29: 6-10" Philly and local burbs

When I say local burbs it's only up to mid Mont/Bucks county. (sharp cut off) Further out burbs 3-6"

3 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

If he’s such a weenie, he must know about this place. Wonder if it’s one of us? I bet it’s Greenskeeper!!

We'll never know. Greenskeeper is not allowed to speak/type. His job is to sling weenies as needed....he'll be busy for the next several days.

Just now, RedSky said:

Eskin sticking with 4" ?

His pred was/is 6"....he'll nail it and gloat. King! 

1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

Anxiously awaiting Bruce’s call.

Been listening to WIP, sad to say no Bruce. Guess I'll have to go w/his 20"/blizzard until further notice... 

Just now, The Iceman said:

Giggity-giggity

Oddly enough Ch10 going w/the same 6-9". First off 6-9" is not a normal range and Ch6 and Ch10 usually don't have the same exact amounts..kinda strange.

31 minutes ago, blue sky said:

Sounds like you want to be the family expert..  The actual forecast by Accu weather was 4+.  Two days before the storm starts up in your neck of the woods.  

Not a bad forecast for two days out.  I will be interested in their updated forecasts. Biggest private weather firm in the WORLD,  gotta be doing something right.

You should bond with your cousin.  At least he listens to you.

Accuweather (Ch6) is going with 6-9" for Philly and surrounding areas...

2 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that.  

Check my post above you...that's from NWS

Just now, hazwoper said:

yu need sustained winds of over 35 mph for an extended period for bliz warning I believe.  Possible, but not likely

It could happen???

The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm with large amounts of snow or blowing snow, winds greater than 35 mph (56 kph), and visibility of less than ¼ mile (0.4 km) for at least three hours.

6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Do we still have the winds with this? Haven't seen much talk about the gusts since yesterday. 

From the WSW posted for SE PA:

Winds could gust as high as 50 mph creating
significant blowing and drifting of snow.

Just now, Rtd208 said:

Winter Storm Watch issued here for accumulations of over 7"

Same for SE PA....

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16".

Same. I would have done 6-10" as a base then increase as/if needed....

4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Great spot with the low location. Definitely further nw than the eps imo Get that baby 50 miles nw and it's game on for a lot of us.

If you're thinking 4-6" is a good total and the duration is 36+hrs....that's like light snow/heavy flurries? Or are you thinking sleet...breaks in action etc?

Just now, RedSky said:

0z ECM crushes DC&Boston and shorts in-between

12z shorts DC and screws Boston and bombs in-between 

Couldn't make this stuff up

 

I witness both real time....and still sane.

Some DC folks are currently jumping ship or whining because their totals are cut in half but still solid.....they picked the wrong "hobby"..

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

10 vs 1 the 10 usually wins 

Right now I would literally go with 6" - 10" for our area w/a lollipop 12+" and be done with it...

Site is slow and giving double post...lol

Just now, RedSky said:

Oh yeah we have a better ECM run here

 

No doubt...

Euro north?

Really, the Euro can't be any worse than the 0z so things can only look better for the 12z....

1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

We also need an update from that WIP guy. Maybe Eskin will be right after all.

As for the 12Z Euro -- biggest run since the domestication of the dog. Let's stop the bleeding!

Some guy name "Bruce"  (not a caller) was on WIP yesterday afternoon predicted  20" for Philly w/blizzard warnings by Mon morning. I like Bruce's thought pattern..

Just now, The Iceman said:

My early guess is in line with hazwoper. Except I feel a little bit more comfortable saying 4-6" for Se Pa for now. Warning level event is the baseline. Sucks that it seems like the MECS region wide is off the table but again hopefully this doesn't trend to all out whiff. Don't like the massive shift in guidance. Hopefully it's just one of those blips and the models begin correcting themselves back n and w but unsettling start to 12z to say the least. Another shift like that and se pa is even out of warning snows... 

Eskin may nail it!