WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Wow, not even close
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No politics talk
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But 11am 12z gfs!!!
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Aahhhhhh. Model output back to winter timing.
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BWI and RIC with their best chance tonight. If not tonight, probably going to be awhile .
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Nobody hit it directly and lots of people were 1 day off.
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Thanks for checking in DT. I’m not sure about the Nina intensity, but I do agree that the very warm NPAC coupled with the Nina is pretty unusual and may throw a wrench in things.
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Meanwhile, Boston suburbs are starting winter with a solid over performer.
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^that looks nice but I’d be happy to kick the can on a decent pattern until mid-late December. Want to get the coldest possible rain..
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I mean, nothing like the mountains or New England. But I think we definitely have better or worse foliage years. Weather conditions seemed promising for one of the better ones this year, but hasn’t really delivered IMO.
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I’ve been a little underwhelmed with the foliage so far. Maples have been fairly lackluster it seems. My sassafras is gorgeous though.
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Liking my November 4 call for the non-DCA points. Absolute earliest right looks like the 30th or 31st pending how much cold air is behind the front.
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I’ll take what the CFS is offering for DJF though.
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We had over 1” on November 15th, 2018.
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Our average forecasts: DCA 11/11/20 BWI 10/29/20 IAD 10/26/20 RIC 11/6/20 Tie: 83.6 So far the tiebreaker value is 83F from IAD on the 7th. Based on the projections, that's probably going to be the final value, but we'll see. Chances for the first freeze, at least at IAD, look pretty decent over the next 10 days. 2020 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
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Nice! Couple hundred feet of elevation certainly will. You’ll notice it in marginal events for sure, which are probably most of our events this coming year...
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Foliage is gorgeous here at DCL!! We tried to go to Swallow Falls SP, but the line to get in was huge and we turned around.
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I had literally one evening last winter where I could take a walk in the snow. Hard to be worse than that. Doesn’t mean it’s not possible.
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Perfect timing for my trip to deep creek next weekend!
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Last day @Bob Chill
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I’m not sure colors here are early, think they’re on a normal pace. Just think we forgot what that is after two insanely torchy falls in a row.
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Going to pin this since the contest closes tomorrow night.
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BWI: 11/4 RIC: 11/4 IAD: 11/4 DCA: 11/14 tie: 86
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Let’s go @Bob Chill, time to wake up from your long summers nap.
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@griteater with a great thread that seems fairly encouraging to me https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1309524598480949250?s=21
