WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Euro has highs near 50/low 50s. Seasonal. Gfs is near 60. GGEM is mid 40s. GEFS close to euro.
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12z GEFS continues with poleward ridging near the west coast starting around the turn of the month. Ridging just off the coast supports a Plains centered trough, but the -NAO ridging mutes any SE ridge tendency. Still a pattern that probably doesn’t support much snow chances in early December, but one heading in a good direction. And LR has been volatile, so don’t get too cozy with any look.
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GFS went west with the Saturday storm, but GGEM (and maybe icon?) still show a snow/mix threat for the northern tier. Likely last shot at any November frozen.
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Looks like Eps didn’t change too much. Maybe a bit larger area of high heights in the NAO domain and over the pole.
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Lots of changes on the overnight GEFS run after thanksgiving. Models definitely having trouble with the Pac. But I’d certainly take what the GEFS is selling in early December.
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Webb says winter will arrive! Although early/mid January seems pretty normal for a Nino, not that early.
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If you want something positive to look at, select northern hemisphere MSLP anomaly on the 18z GEFS and scroll to about hr160+. Lots of red in Santa land means a -AO.
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Ha, you’re more positive than I am about that. That weekly map looks like a sneeze away from a blowtorch. But it’s the weeklies and they’re usually awful. Like I said yesterday, a December with 1-2 accumulation events, less than 3F above normal, and no 60F around Xmas.
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It still looks like the AO and NAO are generally favorable for us for the next 2 weeks. Let's keep that going. We've seen the last 2+ weeks what that can do with a favorable Pac long wave pattern. Do that again in a winter month and I think we'll be rockin. Clearly the models are having a more difficult time figuring out the Pac as we've seen from the +PNA/-EPO look we were getting around Thanksgiving to the -PNA/+EPO pattern advertised now. Probably not worth looking past D7-8 for much.
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^thats all Pac air though. So maybe slightly below normal temps, but probably not an airmass that can snow in early December.
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12z GEFS is pretty blah from a sensible weather POV, but has some improving action over the pole in the 2nd half of the run. Around D8 or so the 1000mb AO goes negative and then increasingly negative after into December. At 500mb it’s more neutral after D8 and signs the PV May rotate back to our hemisphere.
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Based on the Pacific SSTs we might not be in a Nino, but the atmospheric ENSO indices I’ve seen all clearly say it’s a weak nino.
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I'm kind of amazed how good the Ravens are. It's like watching a series of warning level snows hitting us and the ensembles showing a KU ahead. Just waiting for the other shoe to drop incredulously.
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With the way the last decade of Decembers have gone (outside of 2009 and 2013 maybe), the goal should be for 1-2 minor accumulating snow events and a monthly departure less than 3F above normal. And maybe not above 60F within 3 days either side of Xmas.
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December cancel uncancel? 18z GEFS brings back some +PNA/-EPO action around Thanksgiving. Honestly, always wise just to focus on the next 7-10 days and only pay a bit of attention to D10+. Easier said then done obviously. AO only looks to go increasingly negative after D5 when high pressure sets up shop at the surface (where the AO is technically calculated).
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What the models are changing over the last couple runs is the look in the North Pacific. They’ve done this a fair bit over the last couple weeks and most of the flipflopping is past D10. Conversely, with the trough out west, these runs also keep the -NAO going. But if that’s wrong and the trough does get dumped out west, then yes, we warm up. Trough west and -NAO can keep us somehow cooler than normal.
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Lol yeah, what am I supposed to be upset about with that run? The one day of AN temps next week ahead of a rainy cutter?
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EJ will be reaped by December 2nd
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lol weeklies
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HM’s teasing again
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
WxUSAF replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
You already busted at Richmond by three orders of magnitude -
Yup, GEFS mean definitely has had a cross polar flow look at the very end of the last few runs, with 12z being the clearest example. Got to keep the STJ going in tandem.
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Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter??
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Probably, because the NFL sucks.
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That Eps look a few days before thanksgiving is borderline pants tent...except November.
