WxUSAF

Ha, no idea. It’s all such small sample size statistics and then try and account for a warming climate and who TF knows? Not to mention how much random chance impacts our snowfall vs. places farther north.

Speaking of overrunning, gorgeous setup in uber-fantasyland GFS that delivers a modest event, with another on the way at the end.

Yeah, but the atmosphere is still behaving like one for now. Ride that train, Bob.

It’s already started

Actually, my windshield is all frozen over now. But did see about a dozen beautiful dendrites stuck to the roof of my car! More snow than I saw in December 2018...

Got precip overnight but temps didn’t cooperate it looks like. Actually spiked while it was snowing or raining. Either way just wet now.

Snowband maybe starting to develop on radar. A bit ahead of schedule if so.

Well, seems we’ve got that locked in D10 snow/mix/rain storm all sorted.

Happy birthday!

Probably not surprising in the era of nondivergent ensembles, but the EPS looks reasonably close to the op euro at D10. GGEM actually looks quite similar too.

Says Mrs “too good to measure anything under 1” “ who’s also getting more snow tonight

DT’s final winter forecast is out. Clear lean toward cold and snowy.

Potential is rapidly rising that I spend my entire conference time next week tracking... getting that euro storm delayed 12 hours would be perfect since I land at 1030pm that night.

Euro still in for a dusting tonight north of DC. ALL IN

@frd what of those dates were good? None jump to mind.

Love you too burgy

Still does.

D8 euro snow and nobody mentions it

So glad we’re getting the annual moderation philosophy discussion out of the way early this year

If we could get a wave along the tail end of the front that time could have potential. 18z teases that, but the wave is weak and sheared.

I’m wondering how much this Pac puke can kick is due to the conflicting tropical forcing signals. Maybe Eps keeps expecting the MJO to get into torch phases (and maybe the “true” MJO wave is doing that) and so expects a Pac flood, but as we get closer in time, that Indian Ocean standing wave still ends up being the tail wagging the dog and the MJO forcing itself is overwhelmed. Either way, it’s probably having the net effect of turning what otherwise would be a December torch into a fairly seasonal week or two with low, but nonzero snow chances if we can time up some cold air and a southern wave. Certainly looks Nino-ish with active southern stream. I’m cautiously optimistic we get a fun event or two this month.

Need some WAR or SE ridge during a big -EPO period or it’s just cold and dry. Take a look back at the pattern for last November’s early season snow. Big WAR, which is what brought the storm, but we had a good cold air source and so it snowed. Similar deals in 13-14 and 14-15. If it’s going to be a EPO dominated pattern, got to accept some cutters and cold/dry.

Haven’t seen Eps past D10, but inside of D10, there’s a clear trend to a stronger -EPO,-NAO, and -AO relative to previous runs and any pac puke flood gets cankicked to D10 yet again. Yes, we will have a 24hr torch next week with the cutter, but cold air is around. Eps actually quite a bit more bullish than GEFS with the -AO, while GEFS more bullish on -EPO.

See you In January

Euro gives areas N of DC a dusting overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.