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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Can’t post it because I’m on my phone, but 3k NAM soundings look much better in central MD vs 12z, particularly for Thursday morning. Saturated DGZ with good upward motion. If the NAM is right for central MD, would imply wave 1 ends as nice fluff.
  2. WxUSAF
    Has anyone seen a NWS disco mentioning their model preference? Because this clearly ain’t the euro idea
  3. WxUSAF
    Euro is kind of on an island with a dry wave 1. GFS is definitely on an island with a paltry wave 2.
  4. WxUSAF
    Yeah, I didn't buy the 12" stuff. But with a long duration event, a widespread 4-8" seems doable. Probably this works better in a Nino than a Nina. Whether it's the Nina or something else, we've definitely struggled to "close" these snow events we've had. We've lost ground in the last 48-72 hours every time this year.
  5. WxUSAF
    I wouldn't discount the euro, but it's the driest/weakest with these waves relative to the other guidance. And it hasn't exactly nailed our previous storms, whereas a blended forecast from the guidance has done pretty well.
  6. WxUSAF
    Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves. Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z. eta...it's not so much that it's "south", its just weaker with both waves and has a little more arctic air push, particularly for wave 2. Wave 1 is just weak sauce. Quite a change even from 0z.
  7. WxUSAF
    And I dorked up those percentages. I was typing % of seasonal total normal to date. Probably 75-80% of normal by this date.
  8. WxUSAF
    11"...but still, not that bad. Probably 75-80% of normal to date. Hopefully 17" by Saturday...
  9. WxUSAF
    You're right. GFS sounding for wave 1 probably supports 10-12:1. NAM sounding probably 8-10:1. Both of these for central MD...
  10. WxUSAF
    GGEM and RGEM both are pretty uniform forum-wide winners.
  11. WxUSAF
    #consistency
  12. WxUSAF
    NAM soundings for wave 1 are kinda meh as Pete Mullinax posted on twitter and was quoted here. GFS, on the other hand, looks quite nice for early Thursday morning for most of MD. Good lift in the DGZ and fully saturated. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2021020912&fh=48&domain=-77.74,-75.53,38.96,39.57&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular
  13. WxUSAF
    GFS is a little more south on wave 2, but just generally weaker. So mixier for VA.
  14. WxUSAF
    I had to do a double take at those surface temps on the NAM. Euro and GFS (!!) are both a few degrees colder. Can't recall seeing a time recently when GFS had colder surface temps in the Balt-Wash corridor than the NAM.
  15. WxUSAF
  16. WxUSAF
    I’ve only taken a quick look this morning, but seems the euro paints max precip amounts just a bit south of where the gfs+GGEM/RGEM do (just south of DC vs near BWI) for wave 1. Wave 2 looks more similar across guidance. Shift the euro north by like 20-30mi for wave 1 and you’d see pretty good consensus.
  17. WxUSAF
    Lol, we can be sure
  18. WxUSAF
    It never died
  19. WxUSAF
    Well, I think it might end up being more distinctly 2 waves with a gap in the middle. Even if the gap is only ~12 hours.
  20. WxUSAF
    Was EPS not very supportive of a Sunday event like the GFS?
  21. WxUSAF
    Oh this has hours of virga and frustrated Marylanders gnashing our teeth while people like @WinterWxLuvr are talking about how beautiful it is and how fast it’s accumulating written all over it. Dry arctic air will take time to saturate. And that’s all accounted for by the QPF panels that models spit out.
  22. WxUSAF
    Probably will this time too just because it’s a west-east moving system and not pulling moisture off the Atlantic.
  23. WxUSAF
    If there’s been a bullseye this year, it’s the Lehigh Valley in Pa! Definitely not southern MD and central VA. It’s a narrow snow band, so it wouldn’t take a huge jump to bullseye us.
  24. WxUSAF
    Did I finally get fired? Or is my office moved down to auxiliary storage B? Can I keep my stapler?
  25. WxUSAF
    Being on the northern edge of the snow max at D3 range is where I want to be 10/10 times.
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