3k is the much more likely scenario. Most towns get .50.-2” and a few get a bit more . And it’s got the jack where you’d think it would be to the NW. Also notice it lost that ridiculous Noreaster it had. So many wild tweets and posts about a July Noreaster lol. It’s a closed ULL over NY state. As boring as it gets unless someone sees a spinner or something
The whole thing went from SNE Jack to mainly NY state . You haven’t been looking daily while on vaca . We will get some rain obviously but wagons west for 1-5”+ etc .Pretty evident today
Euro has nice severe threat for at least SNE on Wednesday. ULL to our NW with warm humid flow. Will have to see how instability looks as we get closer in
It’s possible it’s just humid with afternoon/ evening showers and storms next week. Doesn’t look like all day washouts . But there are signals of heaviest qpf in NNE