HRRR is right never. Except tonight when it drew the rod up the azz line perfectly to the southwest .
3 severe warnings last 4 days
.14 total from all 3
If you look at many of the ensembles (Aifs) as an example. They build a WAR along the East coast. It’s not gonna be 100 but looks solidly above normal . I mean it’s back into the 90’s later next week
That kind of shows the concerns. Very narrow area of big rains . With sharp cutoff not far north . Convective processes gonna F with models until Monday morning runs . Hopefully an inch here
Hopefully HRRR is wrong with the storms tonight missing here to the south and instead we actually get some rain . If that happens and they get crushed 5-10 miles SW I may light fireworks into neighbors windows. For now radar looks semi promising
You’ve had double the rain this summer. We Had 2.6 all of June and .10 this month. When this ends up coastal CT south Imma lose it . Look at that sharp cutoff . Tell tale sign when you see that