bearman

Ground and roofs turning white in west knox.

Back to big flakes.  Bigger than video shows.

5 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Mixing with rain now here. Those were some pretty heavy rates earlier driving the big flakes coming down.

We are all snow here at the house in crestwood sub.  my house sits a 1100 feet .We had some really large flakes for a while but they have gotten smaller but we are still all snow.  Crestwood is near Ceader Bluff.

We sure started early with the snow hope this is a good sign.

West Knox has huge flakes right now hopfully we can hold went from 37 to 33 in 10 min.  Roofs turning white.

Went up to the cumberland state park in Crossville.  It has just started snowing again after a bout of rain.  It is going from lite to moderate.

19 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

39 here still. Not confident about anything. 

38 here in Knoxville.  Not as confident as I was yesterday but we will see how long it takes to get this Low to our east and what energy is left over.

Forcast has the change over @ 4pm if that is the case we are goiing to end up with very little snow.  I hate the waiting and watching all the wasted moisture.  It is dumping right now.  If this keeps up flooding is going to be a problem.

Good old rain here in Knoxville.  Not sure when the change over is suppose to take place.  It seems to be slowly creeping into the valley.  Maybe.

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Latest HRRR now has 6" line into parts of Knox

Can you post that graphic.

MRX has now put the entire valley under warning or winter weather advisory.

I going all in on this one, might be wrong but I have a good feeling.  Been watching these setups for 40 years.  I think  areas around Chatt might even have a chance.  Athens North I think have a fair chance up the valley.  See how I hedged everything.

Am I being to cynical to say the best and the brightest putting your tax dollars at work?

13 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

MRX is officially on crack or second shift has taken over. They raised my totals up to 2” an hour ago and put me under a WWA. Now they have lowered my totals to 1/2” to 1”.
 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Doesn’t look like a lot. :/ 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022011518&fh=34&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ov&p=sn10_acc&m=hrrr

I Would not be suprised to see Knox get screwed.  I once, in another lifetime lived in Etowah and we would regularly get more snowfall in an area wide event than did Knoxville.

There are going to be crazy cutoffs in wild places with heavy and light areas.  One neighborhoodwill get crushed and the next will accuse his freinds across town of lying about the snowfall totals.

6 minutes ago, Kasper said:

I mean we have seen some crazy things with models before but never anything like this! It’s like they’ve been sipping on Uncle Joe’s Koolaid!

46 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Ahhh the kiss of death for the valley currently filtered sunshine 

Here in Knoxville we have been socked in with thick clouds all day long and temps are well below forcasted highs

With all the different micro-climates and downsloping we have in the valley, I have made out a little map of the Knox county.  I have plotted out snow totals over the years.  When you get 3 to 6 inches in your area  I will most likely get half of your totals in the Cedar bluff area.  This is not always the case but in a system like this it happens often enough I consider it a pattern.

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

To clarify “do well” I’m talking 3-6”, or about 1/2 of what John might get.


.

Peachtree just put 2 northwest Ga counties under a winter storm warning for tonight and sunday morning.  I supose they are on the plateau?

Looks like lookout has some snow at the moment.

It is always curious to me how MRX makes their decision to issue winter weather warning products.   They always err on the side of caution when it comes to severe weather events like tornadoes and issure many warnings that never pan out. It seems like this can cause people to often disregard these warnings but with winter events they seem much more hesitant to pull the trigger.  Maybe it is an issue of scale of impact?

I see MRX did not put the valley under any advisorys except for the extream northern counties.  That gives the rest of the valley a fighting chance. Right on queue Latest GFS 6.5 for TYS and 13.3 for Etowah.

Just as I predicted earlier.  The valley is totally surrounded with wsw.  LOL.  

The way you look at it is if models dont change it is going to be a dud for the  valley but when do models not change  in 48 hours with snow in the forecast.

THIS MAP NEEDS TO GO DOWN AS A CLASSIC  FOR THE VALLEY AND HISTORIC FOR A STORM.  GOOD OLD TN VALLEY IN ALL ITS GLORY. ALL WE NEED IS FOR THE WSW TO BE FILLED IN BELOW US.

Forming up over my area in west knox good bit coming down again.