bearman

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It would snow for another 8 to 12 hours in the East.  

Good to Know.  Told you I was dangerous with my limited knowledge. Don’t want anyone to jump off a cliff because of me.

12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

that should still be pretty disturbing what the RAP is showing last run

MRX would sure bust with their new totals map if that map verifies.

One thing I like about this forum is how everyone treats each other with respect. You can be someone like me that has just enough knowledge to make me dangerous, all the way up to pro mets or their equivalent like @energyjeff and Carver.  It’s a real prize and we all need to guard ourselves always making sure we treat each other as we want to be treated. Keep it up and lets get this storm dialed in.  As an aside. I think it is even more impressive that our forum is such a good space besides the fact that we have so so much disappointments with all the different mico-climates.

Well, here we are sitting before a possible historic storm especially when you consider the temps behind the storm.  So being who I am, I am always thinking about what could go wrong.  I don’t have the expertise to get into the technical details but I remember one particular painful fail that took place @ least 15 or 20 years ago.  I lived in Athens and Neal Pascal was the meteorologist @ channel 9 in Chattanooga, a very good Met.  We had WSW over the entire area. Everyone was sure we were going to get many inches.  I watched the Radar as it approached and a few flakes started coming down I expected the lower Atmosphere to quickly saturate and we would be in business.  I waited and waited and waited. I never saw another flake all day.  We had a huge snowstorm that never reached the ground. There was high pressure to the north that just kept feeding the dry air into the lower levels, at least that is how I understand it,  and the moisture could never overcome it.  This was the biggest bust ever remembered and excuses were flying This storm however is going to move forward because it is our time.

What is the light snow coming in to West TN and Southern KY. associated with.

6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

MEG updated theirs with the warning...still waiting on MRX and OHX 

GOING CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW TOTALS This is typical.  MRX at least. They will pick the most consevative model and cut that in half. Or they will go the other direction in rare occations especially if they have late in the game issued an advisory. They will keep totals going without any chance.  Seen it both ways.

5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Lol… close up of ICON




.

Wowza!

What are the general timeframes for issuing warnings?

12 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Man I really don't know what to think down here. The globals are all game on. The short range models do not like this entire corner of the state.

No they don’t and that has me a little disconcerted I am right on the line in West Knox and that gives me maybe 2 in.

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

I’m I reading this correctly that MRX isn’t really all that concerned with PType issues outside of the lowest elevations of the southern valley?


.

 

I think you are reading it right and neither is @energyJeff worried about mixing and I have a lot of confidence in his thoughts.

Can someone post those latest maps? We are all getting whiplash.

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Well maybe it won't get better. It's warm nosing like crazy and has rain in Crossville and mid-40s up the Eastern areas.

I always tell myself not to get excited until the snow is falling.

I guess someone has to live on the knifes edge.  

20 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

This

Is this projection or does he know us all too well or is it both.?

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

qpf may have ticked down a smidge

 

 

Models have been very consistent and I like it.  I know that there is a million ways we can get the screw job but it we do we will survive.  It is however time for us to get a storm like this, it has been a minute.

I like the low way up in Canada.  Lets all set up a time to mind link to it and make it rotate around our area about 3 times and we will all be ready for spring.

1 hour ago, Silas Lang said:

Any reports of snow from that moisture currently on radar? Assuming it's not reaching the ground, but thought I would ask. 

Looks like there are a few flakes showing up in North AL and North GA. 

We finally have some returns over our area but nothing is falling from the sky.  I have had no winter type precipitation fall this year except a few wet flakes this morning.  Sad times for snow lovers.  Maybe we can get somthing going next week.

16 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

This has been a pretty steady light snow shower for awhile now. I don’t remember any models except maybe the 3k showing this for this morning. Hopefully it will over perform overall and tonight when cooler temps move in we can get at least some light accums.

It is pretty rare that we get suprises.  When I was a kid there was nothing more exciting to me than waking up in the morning with that insulated feeling that you get on the house from an unexpected snowfall covering the roof and running to look out the window to see if I was interpreting the feelings correctly.  I think the surprise was always the best part of the experience.  Sorry should be puting this in banner.

First soggy flury of the year just came by the house.

Story of my life.  I expect to have a mob of crazed weather freaks with pitchforks and shovels intent on driving back south.

It is really funny.  I hate to be a weenie but why not?  I lived in the Cleveand area for years and it seemed the tri-cites and Knoxville areas would get these backside snows almost every winter.  Something that never happened in Southeast TN.  I then moved up to Knoxville about 15 years ago and we have got almost none of these clippers since I have moved, at least none that have amounted to anything.  Is this the case or am I just imagining this?

49 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah, don't let me start another thread this winter the very next run started trending worse lol 

Not your fault nothing can overcome heat blister in the TN Valley.