dan11295

Yucatan got a break with the weakening yesterday afternoon. Shows that systems with small cores are prone to rapid fluctuations in intensity.

Center should only be over land for 4-6 hours it appears, depending on exact track. Still unclear how much re-strengthening will occur in the Gulf, as we know how unreliable intensity forecasts can be. Models still pretty set on Delta to be weakening on landfall due to shear + cooler shelf waters, which is very reasonable.

Last two model runs shifted Mexico landfall a bit south. Greater threat of direct eyewall impacts may be Cozumel and Playa Del Carmen. Further South would also mean more time over land before it gets into the Gulf.

3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Only think that throws a wrench in this now is an EWRC. With such a small eye, something to watch for. But the storm is equally small so who knows.

only 18-20 hrs before it hits land. not enough time for ERC I don't think.

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Cancun area is going to take a direct hit on that trajectory

Eye is very small so area of strongest winds will be small. No question they are at high risk of a direct hit given track seems clustered with little variance until Yucatan landfall. NHC now calling for 140 mph at Mexico landfall.

Regardless of effects on the Gulf Coast, this is looking like it could be a bad hit to the NE Yucatan. Would be worst hit for that area since Wilma in 2005.

15 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

Yeah, no doubt this will probably be a major cane in the Gulf.  Hopefully it will weaken as it nears the coast.  

If without considering shear, shelf temps in the northern GOM are barely 26C. Even if it becomes a major, the water temps would make a major at landfall very unlikely. 12z intensity guidance has a weakening cat 1 at landfall. Hurricane Lili might be a possible Analog to Delta in this regard.

Current NHC track mostly avoids the cold eddy in the Central Gulf and minimizes travel time over cooler water prior to any Gulf Coast landfall. Further east=weaker due to to Cuba interaction and lower SST/heat content. Delta will also be moving much faster than Sally. But the cooler shelf waters should make any landfall stronger than NHC forecast unlikely, plus it will likely be starting to weaken before landfall, even before considering any shear.

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Starting a thread, now that continued organization is likely and landfall along the gulf coast is an increasing threat. 

The 6z HWRF is highlighting this evening, into tommorow for a period of fairly quick intensification, once the system gets more stacked. After that track/intensity becomes nearly impossible to predict, with weak steering flow.

Short term question is interaction with the Yucatan which would obviously hinder development. Longer term good chance this gets sheared apart in the Gulf. Most models just kill it once it gets into the GOM with just the low level remnant circulation moving west.

23 hours ago, mattb65 said:

Unfortunately, is becoming more apparent by the day that we are heading into a third wave of this virus. The summer wave cage off of a plateau of roughly 20,000 positive cases per day and this one appears to be launching off a plateau of 40,000 cases per day.

I wouldn't be surprised if we jump up to 100,000 cases per day by November. Watching the hospitalization trends over the coming weeks well give a clue about how much of a rise in deaths we'll see in this wave.

Not sure how much this is registering with the general public at this point. The experts have been issuing stern warnings for months about their worries for fall/winter and those worries are all starting to show concerning signs of becoming reality.

In the short term, is is apparent that nationwide hospitalization numbers have stopped falling and are now up slightly week over week. Hospitalizations are now close to the previous low point back in June, which implies we are probably catching more cases ( I haven't read of any evidence the virus is weakening yet). What actually happens in the next few months depends on many variables, including human behavior, percentage of the population with some immunity, and potential seasonal influences (i.e. temperature, humidity, maybe body Vitamin D levels). Regarding potential seasonal effects it is important to remember that the exact mechanism behind flu seasons are not settled science, so a lot of worries about the fall/winter are based on historical patterns of infection from influenza and common cold coronaviruses.

Houston is just a magnet for heavy rain from tropical systems. The 10-12" max rainfall in the last 18 hours just happens to be in SW Harris County.

4 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Agree about MDR season possibly being about over( although one never knows) but out of curiosity with W Carib  season about to start what makes you say that  that the Gulf may be done for the year? I think that the gulf is very vulnerable during W Carib season.

Obviously can't be sure, but usually once you start getting cold fronts into the Gulf it usually means the end of the season there.

Looks like we finally have a bit of a quiet period coming up, thankfully. MDR season might be about over. Probably have an uptick in activity early October, my guess is the Gulf might be about done for the year (hopefully).

14 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Making declarations on lower flooding potential for a slow moving / stalling system in the gulf seems odd.  Rainfall amounts are not tied to windspeed in any way...unless you are thinking the storm will be a eastern heavy system throughout it's life?

Latest tracks are wild for this one.  GFS hits corpus and Houston both from the east...so 2020

Am guessing the expectation is drier air will cut down on the precip?

Really need a backup list of names that is used in this case. Some of the later Greek letters sound a lot alike also, Zeta, Eta, Theta, would be rather confusing if those storms were active at the same time. When 2005 happened, people assumed having that many storms would not repeated any time in the near future.

1 hour ago, HimoorWx said:

I was in England 3 years ago when Hurricane Ophelia struck the British Isles.  Main impacts were in Ireland and Wales, but did get a bit breezy around Manchester.  I also have a vague recollection of another tropical storm or hurricane hitting Portugal or Spain a few years ago, but can't recall when.

Ophelia went extratropical 9-12 hours before hitting Ireland. Vince  in 2005 was downgraded to a TD just before landfall in Spain.

Just now, Memphis Weather said:

Likely the radar imagery from Portugal is what pushed this to classification. It would probably have been declared a STS in post season analysis had they not named it today.

I agree technically its worthy of classification, just figured they would add this as unnamed STS post-season

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Oh my Lawd...

 

Shocked they bothered naming this....literally about to make landfall

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The HWRF and HMON keep it sheared and weak.  The euro has a more solid system.

Generally it seems this will stay weak, Biggest concern would be stalling near a populated area on the TX coast.

SST's in the Mediterranean Sea in that area are about 28C. Certainly warm enough to support a TC. Some of these type of stormed have formed in the winter months, with lower SST's than usually required for Tropical Cyclones.  In many ways like 2005's Hurricane Epsilon, with colder temps along likely allowing for their formation. These storms (like Epsilon) often show eye features at lower wind speeds than seen in deeper warm core systems. 

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

Just pointing out that Laura was significantly stronger upon CONUS landfall than every single one of 2005's US threats 

By wind speed yes, by pressure no (Katrina was 920 mb at landfall).

Odds we go into Greek letters this year? Assuming we get the Rene shortly that leaves only 4 names left.

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Was there a case dump or something in Illinois?  5500 newly reported...

Yes, There was a backlog of cases which resulted in a data dump.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thinking it's Cat 5 now 155

Technically 156+ is a 5, but its basically semantics

Best hope is the core goes somewhere relatively unpopulated, like between Port O'Connor and Freeport. Models have been too far the right in the short term last few runs

49 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Jeff P and the blue shed. Never forget the sacrifices made for our entertainment. 

Ike gave us the guy in the bear suit , Harvey gave us the blue shed