dan11295

8 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

I really feel for the health care workers...  ugh

Many of them are becoming very burned out from working excessive hours plus stress etc. The ICU patients in particular require constant care w/multiple workers while in full PPE etc.

33 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Coming up on two weeks after Halloween this Saturday. Will likely see a spike

Numbers are already up 25k+ week on week......

Obviously the summer spike came to an abrupt plateau in the middle in July, With such a broad nationwide spike and no real mitigation yet don't know how this happens here very soon. Our current avg cases/per capita is about equal to the UK right now. (both countries are probably catching similar percent of causes as the 21-day time lagged CFR numbers are similar for both countries (1.7% for the U.S. and 2.0% for the UK) The difference is they have gone back into lockdown and have plateaued in cases. We are basically trying to do what Russia is trying to do right now which is avoid shutting things back down.

Keys could get a landfalling hurricane here..lol

Would think they have to issue a Hurricane warning for the Keys with those obs.

Also if Eta recurves back into FL will it just a TS falling apart? This is November...

URNT15 KWBC 081419
NOAA2 1329A ETA HDOB 11 20201108
141000 2252N 07848W 8430 01466 9968 +183 +164 134027 029 039 000 00
141030 2251N 07846W 8430 01464 9966 +184 +164 140028 029 040 000 00
141100 2251N 07845W 8428 01466 9960 +194 +161 142033 034 039 000 00
141130 2250N 07843W 8430 01462 9958 +196 +159 146033 035 040 000 00
141200 2250N 07841W 8431 01460 9958 +193 +167 144035 036 044 000 00
141230 2249N 07839W 8431 01458 9959 +188 +170 151034 036 045 000 00
141300 2249N 07838W 8431 01460 9962 +185 +171 159038 039 047 000 00
141330 2248N 07836W 8432 01462 9964 +186 +169 169038 039 047 000 00
141400 2247N 07834W 8428 01471 9969 +185 +167 169040 040 048 000 00
141430 2247N 07832W 8428 01474 9971 +187 +168 170040 041 049 000 00
141500 2246N 07830W 8426 01477 9978 +178 +168 173041 042 049 000 00
141530 2246N 07828W 8432 01470 9983 +170 //// 178046 048 052 001 01
141600 2245N 07827W 8424 01479 9985 +170 //// 181047 049 052 001 01
141630 2245N 07825W 8431 01481 9988 +171 //// 184047 049 053 001 01
141700 2244N 07823W 8416 01495 9992 +169 //// 182052 054 054 002 01
141730 2243N 07821W 8417 01494 9995 +163 //// 182056 061 055 009 01
141800 2243N 07819W 8429 01485 0004 +151 //// 180066 069 057 008 01
141830 2242N 07818W 8417 01499 0008 +153 //// 180063 064 059 003 01
141900 2242N 07816W 8418 01500 0010 +162 //// 178065 070 057 003 01
141930 2241N 07814W 8432 01495 0012 +167 +161 188066 070 057 004 00

996 mb extrap 70 kt fl 59 kt SFMR. Weird because NHC had it at 50 kt before crossing Cuba. Also looks like 12z model output came N some.

I am curious what percent of cases are actually getting caught with tests. Dr. Scottlieb on CNBC suggesting it was only 25%. If that is true then 25%+ of North Dakota has now been exposed, as 6.7% of the state has been tested positive. They are currently testing 0.2% of their pop positive every day!

25 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

120k is possible today if the last two states report. Time to lock it down imo

Finished with 118k but no Missouri (Kansas reported every other day during the weekdays). Last two weeks have seen a clear acceleration of case growth. Today was 26k above last Thursday, which was 18k above the Thursday before. This kind of trajectory cannot continue without major strains on health care systems in many areas (it already is in some areas).

Can add 4400 in Indiana. Also outside of this forum area but the numbers of the Dakotas are really bad when you consider their population. 

SD 1360 cases 22 deaths

ND 1536 cases 29 deaths (I wonder what % of cases are being caught 6.5% of ND has now tested positive)

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think we're at the point of no return. Just called a client with covid, 90% oxygen levels, but extremely fatigue and dizzy. Its starting to spread quickly even here in NYS. Infection rate above 5% in my county, which is still low but rising. I expect Cuomo to start putting more restrictions in place soon. 

The major spike started in the upper Midwest, and has now spread through most of the West, Plains & OH Valley. Northeast is steadily climbing now. The interior Southeast and CA are about the only areas relatively stable for now.

2 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Wow, this thread has gone silent... everyone watching the election maybe??

People are kind of done with the tropics I sense, plus its kind of not doing anything at the moment.

12 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Spain just reported 1623 deaths today. Scary numbers for a population of 47 million 

only 297 were new, rest were from a while ago. Regardless Europe has major problems, new daily hospital admissions in France were 3700 yesterday, not far below their Spring peak of 4300.

Some great fall weather coming up for rest of this week. 

All states in Midwest (WI, MI, IL, OH, IN)  have seen significant jumps in hospital numbers past few days, PA rising steadily as well now.

6 minutes ago, saltysenior2 said:

any chasers there ??

 

Pretty sure the answer is no, for many reasons. Horrible area to chase, don't even know if foreigners can enter right now etc.

1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

Ohio posted 4,200+ cases for a record.  The reality is these a from testing a week ago.  Also had record hospitalizations.  Not Good.   

People have to remember that these cases are from people getting exposed 10-14 days ago on average. 5-6 days for symptoms, 1-2 days to get the test, then 3-7 days on average to get it back (this number can vary based on type of test and setting (hospital vs test site, etc.) 

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

That's one hospital

In one city that may not be a hot spot. The trends of the all metrics in the state as a whole are up.

Remember at the 1 am advisory NHC had Eta as a tropical storm

Not sure I would go <900 mb. No question this is a Cat 5. 915 135 kt

I direct hit on the only population center in the area would be unfortunately, luckily not a whole lot of other population centers in that area. Hopefully most of the fain falls in the swamps.

http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/radar/loop/aoi/ADZ/Reflectividad de Base 0.5 deg

Eyewall visible on radar from San Andres Island 

Good news is the general landfall area is sparsely populated.

Evaluation is certainly unusual. Brings circulation of Eta back over water North of Honduras brings to NE almost to Cuba where it gets blocked by the ridge, pushed southwest a bit before getting picked up by the trough. Of course we are talking 10 days in the future and a lot is dependent on what happens with Eta after CA Landfall. If the circulation dies over land it may be moot.   

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Over 70k cases on a Sunday and five states didn't even report...

Some states don't report on weekends anymore (CT/RI). But Michigan and Nebraska had numbers last Sunday but not today. With those who it would have 74-75k most likely. Last few Sundays have been up ~10k compared to last, so trend has not changed, or even accelerated slightly

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

7900 new cases in Illinois.

Basically the entire Northern US from ID/UT to MI/OH and everywhere in between is not on a good path here, to put it gently. Northeast had low baseline but is rising too. Besides the Texas spike, other states in the south are showing initial signs for rising numbers again too, i.e. 1900 in AZ today.

As said above this is not sustainable. I know they just closed indoor dining in Chicago Metro but is that really going to be sufficient at this point? Hospitalizations in IL are now at 60% of their April peak.

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thinking this one might get retired? Big time season after all.

I think technically Greek names can't get retired. If it was a normal name It probably has 50/50 shot of being retired. Seems to be close to Sally in terms of impact  Just another reason to move away from this list to a separate list with regular names or just have a rotating list of six names. The latter option would help with the issue with certain letters "i" for example getting retired so often. Another issue with the Greek list is Zeta, Eta & Theta sound very much alike. We could have easily had Zeta and Eta active at the same time.

Kind of weird to see outage from a hurricane and ice storm so close on the map like that.

Significant rises in case numbers are now occurring in many states at once. we are down to 5-6 states not seeing either steady rise or sharp spike. Those states all are lower latitude/warmer areas, besides the OH Valley much of the plains saw a sharper increase this past week, same with the northeast. My state (Mass.) was up 50% this week, and we have high mask use compliance here. Really suggesting to me seasonality factors are taking over and causing Rt to rise compared to the summer.