dan11295

What is happening in the Upper Midwest is is some ways comparable to some of the eastern European countries. In both cases transmission rates were partially kept very much in check by limited travel occurring from existing hot spots combined with distancing to some degree or another. As people became complacent they believed it wouldn't be become a problem and that allowed more cases to be introduced in the communities and caused infection rates to jump.

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Make that 70k! This getting crazy!!

Case numbers in the US always follow a weekly pattern, with Friday as highest and Sunday lowest. Still a big jump from last Friday

Couple of observations comparing the case, hospitalization and average deaths between last June- early July and now: First there are less reported hospitalizations relative to caseload, compared to the summer. Presumably do to testing more and catching more cases. But the 7-day average deaths are still above the average back in June (700 vs 550), despite  reported hospitalizations  being basically identical. Don't have a theory on why that is the case.

In Addition to Wisconsin mentioned above, North Dakota in particular is really doing bad. They get ignored due to small raw numbers, but per capita its terrible. >0.1% of their population was reported positive today alone!

40 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Europe is locking back down in places as they have had tremendous spikes there recently. Germany just recorded their highest # since the pandemic began. https://news.yahoo.com/germany-sees-6-638-daily-035339283.html

France just declared a public health emergency.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-emergency/france-declares-public-health-state-of-emergency-over-covid-19-idUSKBN26Z2PQ

Unlike the spring, eastern Europe is also being significant impacted now. 8,000 cases in Poland today, almost 10k in Czechia yesterday.

6 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

 

But some people argued that T-cell memory was the reason the virus basically disappeared from NYC and other northern states.  I thought that was bunk - the real reason is seasonality.  There appears to be a strong seasonal component to this virus.  I mentioned back in July how the Southern Hemisphere (and southern latitudes of the US) had most of the cases.  As the seasons change in the northern latitudes, cases are now decreasing in Brazil, India and South Africa, but drastically increasing in the northern US as well as Europe.

As far as how it relates to being asymptomatic....I'm not sure about that either.  I think the amount of viral exposure (viral load) has more to do with whether someone becomes symptomatic.  There also appears to be more symptomatic cases right now, compared to back over the summer.

The fact that India/Southern Hemisphere is going down in cases combined with the spikes across board in Europe, Canada and U.S. Midwest argues strongly for a seasonal component (India flu season has a peak coinciding with the monsoon in many areas of the country and cases are going down despite reopening more of their economy).

In terms of severity, Covid is not in the same league as Spanish Flu, primarily due to the W-shaped mortality curve and higher observed mortality rates mentioned above. Besides these facts, its hard to make estimates how the numbers for both pandemics would be different if Covid was in 1918 and Spanish Flu occurred now. In general, populations are older now with more of the comorbidities that make them more vulnerable to Covid, but medical care has much advanced since 1918.

Sounds like the winds on the west side of Delta over performed a bit. extreme SE TX had many reports of 80-90+ gusts

Appears from power outage map the impacts were felt over a fairly broad area, even if obviously less severe than Laura. 30% of East BR Parish has no power, so does 30% of Jefferson County in Texas.

Lake Charles reported a 95 mph wind gust apparently about an hour ago.

As far as the shape, the shear certainly did a number on it.

I wonder how well all that plywood will hold up on the Capital One Building in Lake Charles. As mentioned above, you have a lot of compromised structures in that area. This is very similar to the Frances/Jeanne situation in Florida, two different hurricanes making landfall in almost the same spot.

Which is a good thing, SW LA has already had 1 major hurricane this year, they certainly didn't need another. As it is this is very disruptive to anyone in that area trying to recover from Laura.

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Carl Parker on TWC just said hurricane hunters getting much lower winds than 115mph in northern eyewall. Guessing we see a downgrade to cat 2 at 1pm

This wasn't a cat 3 at 10 am. Core will be coming ashore in 2-3 hours. 963 mb 110 mph at 1 pm. Still think that is generous.

What kind of winds can blue roofs withstand? Many damaged homes in the Lake Charles area have them at the moment. 47 mph gust at LCH last hour. 4-5' surge currently in SW LA.

You see the effects of the dry air and shear eroding the core. I think a high Cat 1 in reality at landfall is most likely. Northern eyewall is ~4-5 hours from land maybe. Last recon was 966 mb w/25 kt wind, so 963-964 mb. SFMR would support 80-85 kt

sustained TS winds at Galveston last hour. As has been stated before, probably more of a surge threat ultimately, though you will have a lot of power outages, TS/Cat 1 type damage from large wind field. Doubt you get any sustained Hurricane winds reported on land with weakening storm and no stations at landfall point.

Seems like it is going a bit west of track? Yet to start moving east of north per radar. That turn should be occurring very shortly.

Pressure is already up to 960mb with luck we can get even more weakening than forecast prior to landfall. Wont matter too much for surge but would mitigate some of the wind obviously.

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yeah again intensification this evening and whatever more Delta can muster by midday tomorrow matters only in fetch for surge. Winds are going to come down by landfall but the radius of 34+ wind is going to continue increasing. This is going to be a surge event.

This will be your "classic" half-a-cane at landfall for sure. Winds don't get to the surface as well in weakening storms, so you probably won't see the type of structural damage you saw with Sally. Also going to be very few populated areas near the immediate landfall point, unlike with Sally. 

10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Seems to really be an outlier with regards to intensity. 6z HMON gets down to 950mb with a 960 mb landfall 6z HWRF also gets down to 950mb with 955mb landfall. Realistically only has ~18 hours of favorable conditions left for intensification ~1mb/hr would get you to 950mb but that is probably pushing it as core has yet to fully consolidate.

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Haven't posted much in this thread, but have been saying all along that folks expecting a big second peak intensity in the GOM may be disappointed. Betting on something as extreme as a cat 4 for a system that has been structurally unstable and expanding in size quickly, during a season with an observed propensity to limit intensity as least excuse imaginable seemed like a risky proposition to me. That said, no issue at all with a very destructive surge potential due to the expanding size.

Almost none of the 12z intensity guidance makes it a major again. Pressure may drop some before it weakens a bit before landfall, but storm is expanding in size so you will still have a significant surge impacts as you said plus broad area of wind impacts. On radar this will almost certainly have the "half cane" look often associated with north Gulf landfalls. Models have been shown dry air eroding the south side prior to landfall.

Btw, for radars we will have to rely on Houston long range and then Fort Polk as LCH radar is still out. 

Delta has about 24 hours left to strengthen. Current storm structure with expanding wind field does make RI likely IMHO. Will likely be a weakening Cat 2 on landfall which should limit the potential for major structural damage. Also, some of the surge will be areas affected by Laura, so a saving grace there is some of the more vulnerable structures are already gone. 

That being said, the large wind field will still bring significant impacts. Also, still plenty of debris around the Lake Charles area, with many tarps on roofs. 

8 ASOS stations in MA verified High Wind/SVR criteria, impressive

Outages: 240k MA 210k NY 41k RI 25k CT

For MA that number is comparable to the outages in Isaias. With no pre-staging of power crews some people might be without power for a few days.

Statewide a higher end t-storm event for sure. Very rare to get a line that impacts that much of the state.

Intensity guidance (yeah I know it hasn't done particularly good with Delta) brings it to 100-105kt before it starts to weaken prior to ~90 kt landfall. I still think 85-95 kt will be final landfall intensity. regardless of how much it strengthens in the short term. Large wind field will be a surge problem and puts Lafayette a bit under the gun as far as wind, although they are inland a bit with a weakening storm to mitigate the effects some. Regardless, Louisiana is still dealing with effects of Laura and they certainly don't need another storm.

Need to see if/when the westward model trend stops. Few more ticks west Delta will be more of an issue for Lake Charles than Lafayette. 

12z intensity/track guidance implies a borderline cat 2/3 landfall in Vermilion Parish late Friday morning. Coast is basically marsh with low population there. With fast movement and larger storm would certainly see significant wind impacts to Lafayette area though.

Delta continues to exhibit extremely strong convection over land. Looks to be halfway across now.