dan11295

UK and EURO both hit same areas near ILM with heaviest rainfall, GFS is a bit northeast. EURO does not have the crazy totals that the GFS and UK have. Would take some very persistent traning with heavy bands to get what the UK/GFS are implying. But that stuff is somewhat storm structure dependent.

At this point will have to remember the core may do funny things as a result of the slow movement and interaction with land, I think the models still have use as far as trends as to where they core will likely go though. Couple other points. While winds likely wont be the big story here, the unusual slow track will result in a lot of coastal areas getting the RFQ of the storm for significant duration. Will have watch where feeded bands set up later, GFS wants to pound the Jacksonville area for a long period.

Areas that stay NE of the center will get pounded by the core at landfall then continue to get wacked by feeder bands off the ocean for a while as Florence moved slowly West.

Some brief drop in pressure is possible due to passing over the gulf stream. but Florence will begin to weaken a bit before landfall almost certainly due to cooler shelf waters and slowing of movement speed. Main issues with Florence are going to be significant coastal surge, Long duration of hurricane force gusts near coastal areas especially due to large wind field and slow movement, and excessive rainfall due to large circulation/slow movement. The ILM-Morehead City corridor is going to get the worst all all of these as fetch over water will pile up rainfall and make it hard for runoff to drain.

Will have the 12z models shortly. Very important to see any changes to where slow down/stall occurs. further from the coast is better for coastal NC wrt surge/rain/wind, but worse for SC/potentiall GA.

Regarding Rainfall. Hilo has had 9.92" in the last 18 hours. Radar looks to continue to hammer that area in the coming hours.

Rotating seems to weaken on last scan at least.

Clearly still rotation on the cell..Going through Grafton now. Don't know if anything was on the ground NE of Webster.

Still rotation on latest scan crossing 146. Doesn't quite look as strong as it Webster area?

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1016 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

MAC017-027-041445-
/O.CON.KBOX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180804T1445Z/
Worcester MA-Middlesex MA-
1016 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WORCESTER AND SOUTH CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...

At 1015 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Sutton, or 8 miles south of Worcester, moving
northeast at 30 mph. There have been numerous reports of significant
damage in Dudley and Webster.

Not Good..

155k without power now. As said above I am sure a lot of weakened trees/branches are coming down

I think we can easily knock 3-4" off accumulations in SE Mass/Cape. Even here in Metrowest the roads are still wet. Looking at 5 am obs pretty much everyone is reporting snow, even ACK, but many temps are still above freezing making it tough to accumulate

I am not sold yet on 12+ Metrowest-ORH quite yet. Need to see 12z to make sure there isn't another E shift.

2 minutes ago, Crazieman said:

Think we lost TJUA's data.  Last scan 9:50 Z.  Its 9:58 Z now

Possibly, the radar site was just getting into the eyewall at that time.

We will certainly lose TJUA radar very soon. As a result of the EWRC, instead cat 5 winds over a narrow area, we now get slightly weaker winds over a broader area. At current heading San Juan metro gets the NE eyewall.

I think the EWRC will save PR from  the potential most extreme winds. Probably will be a Cat 4 in landfall in reality due to timing of the replacement cycle. Will still be a really bad hit for the island, especially with the San Juan area taking the RFQ.

You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall.

Barring a jog to the north, it would appear that St. Croix will miss the eyewall. They will still get the RFQ but will probably avoid any extreme wind damage. Not out of the woods though for them obviously.

You have to figure Maria is fairly close to max potential intensity at this point. on TC intensity maps for the area they show 900-910 mb for the waters S of PR. Also the outer ring of convection is starting to show up well on radar.

920 mb w/6 kt wind on the dropsonde. Recon seems to support upping winds to at least 145 kt.

At this point I am just hoping St. Croix misses the eyewall (and we get an ERC at the right time, as with an eye smaller than Irma an ERC may be a bit more likely)

Recon only found 125 kt max at surface, but their flight path was certainly restricted by the fact the eye is half on land already. That is why they couldn't go back into the eye itself.

Yea, recon is not going to make it. I am guessing based on Sonde and the fact the pass was through the NW Quad, landfall intensity is probably 165 mph.

We are looking at two different landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the islands in just over two weeks, that is insane. IFAIK there were no recorded Cat 5 landfalls East of PR in the satellite area before this year.

That was in the NW Quad. NE should be a bit stronger with direction of motion, This is a cat 5 IMHO