dan11295

Lead cell does look like it has weakened, finally

Hopefully cloud debris etc, can restrict heating.  remember everything has to be right for a major event to happen. Obviously the potential is there. I suspect the SPC is a bit less gung ho due to combination of the CAM's being subdued past couple of days plus recently there were a couple of events where they went high risk of off the charts tornado probs that fortunately did not pan out.

slight increase of intensity of the echos in E Mass per radar, still just light precip here at the moment.

200k customers out in MA,. Some schools in SE Mass and NW Worcester county are off today.  Some trees on houses and stuff. Not that big for inland areas, but certainly a bit above a "pedestrian" event. The wind direction and the trees still in leaf played a factor too.

HRRR has this initial batch then dries things up a bit until the main rain shield starts to push in later tonight.

6Z NAM and GFS both show 6"+ for SE MA. As said above EURO is more pedestrian.

NHC must have updated their software, I remember in the past they were unable to plot forecast points east of the Prime Meridian. Prop-tropical cyclones affecting UK in particular is that not uncommon. Ophelia did just a couple of years ago (only 6-12 hours after being declared post-tropical actually).

There are no records of strong major hurricanes at Lorenzo's location in the satellite era as far as I know.Of course there may have been some prior to the satellite era, but will probably never know how strong they may have been. For example if the 1935 Labor Day hurricane went south of Key West and didn't hit land at that intensity, there is probably no way it would be re-analyzed at that intensity/pressure. It is the only storm in the pre-satellite era listed as having a pressure of <910 mb.

As far as Freeport, I think you will find most of the damage there will be from surge. Western part of the city never got into the eye wall and it was weakening some before it got there.

When assessing damage, important to distinguish between surge and wind damage (there was a lot of both here) on Abacos. The building Josh was in was a brick school which was basically demolished with a few partial walls standing. No way Josh uses a building in a category 5 for shelter unless he feels its a strong structure. Also saw a video from someone in a car driving past what was clearly catastrophic wind damage. From aerials alone though it can be hard to distinguish though, especially since most stuff is low lying there.  

I know Josh has been in many intense Hurricanes. Has he ever been in the eyewall of something this intense? He was not the in strongest winds of Michael, Patricia was a weakening 4, Haiyan was probably a 4 by the time it got to Tacloban City. I know Michael last year was the lower pressure he has actually recorded.

Certainly a bit of a clown solution on 12Z GFS. Crazy to look at but not worth seriously talking about atm.

Looking at the outages, most of this damage is probably straight line wind. 60%+ of Dennis, Harwich, Chatham is out but also fair amount in places like Orleans which was probably north or any potential touchdown.

Probably some significant straight line wind damage as well. Chatham Police is also reporting several impassable roadways.

Couple thing to remember, one is that thankfully there is much less population once you get west of OKC, certainly compared to say Alabama. Of course if only takes one storm in a bad spot to make for a very bad day. Second, As I mentioned in the other thead, very important for people to not seek shelter in a low lying area with the high flood risk. There were 13 flooding deaths in OKC metro during the El Reno event.

Important to emphasize not sheltering in flood prone locations like drainage ditches. This was a problem in OKC metro during the El Reno event in particular, IIRC.

EDIT: Just looked up the NWS OUN page on that event. There were 13 flooding fatalites (12 in OKC) during that event.

That cell means business, couplet really strengthened last frame as it moved on land.

Guess everyone is hung over from the Sox win. Tor warning on the Cape and no posts in over 20 minutes..lol.

Still reporting, pressure dropped 1.3 mb in 10 minutes to 966 mb. Wind still NE

Without Guam radar, hard to tell how much of the eyewall Saipan is likely to get, Looks like Tinian is likely to have the eye go party over it.

Wonder much longer Saipan will continue to report obs. They are now Sustained NE 67 G 85 mph with pressure 978 mb

Couple other things into play here. One is there is little historical precedent for a storm that close to that strong landfalling in that general area, plus the general history for northern gulf storms to weaken before landfall. I don't think even 2 days ago anyone seriously thought Michael was going to make landfall while instensifying at that strength. I mean only 2 landfalling storms in the US with lower pressure were Labor day and Camille and ony 3 with stronger winds were Labor day, Camille and Andrew.

Looking at the landfall history in the Panama City/Apalachicola area. That immediate area hasn't taken a direct hit from a major hurricane in over 40 years (Eloise 1975).

Opal 1995 - further west

Elena 1985 - Stayed offshore of the area

People need to realize now devastating the river flooding is going to be as well. Cape Fear river is already at record flood stage (surpassing record set in Floyd) and is forecast to rise another 4.5 feet. Still raining over that basin although rates have decreased. ILM area continues to get pounded. Hearing of many water resources ongoing in that area in particular.

ILM just updated their climate data:

1.50 Thursday + 9.58 Friday + 7.44 Satuday = 18.52" + 2.59 today" (as of 6 am)  = 21.11"

NC state rainfall record has almost certainly fallen, probably been surpassed on Morehead City by this point, as they are back into some of the mod-heavier bands shifting back east. Probably hard to get accurate numbers right now due to power outages and the fact so many roads are impassable.