dan11295

Ohio was dumping their backlogged data most likely. Trends in Ohio are still not good. 4350 hospitalized now (almost +200 today)

Both Minnesota and Illinois had good drops in case numbers from last Monday. Continues to imply numbers have peaked in the region. But other regions are still increasing.

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Wouldn't it be a godsend if we peak sometime soon.  Have to wait and see.  Even if so, I think we may be on a horrendous plateau with this thing due to getting "held up" by the holiday gatherings and, unlike spring, there are several months of more favorable transmission conditions (cold, dry weather) left to get through.

Some of the data this week (I know The holiday will mess up the reporting some) might tell us if the abnormal warm spell was a factor in reducing transmission. Am looking at states like Iowa in particular, where their 7-day average dropped starting November 16 with no meaningful restrictions put in place to affect numbers. That is about 13 days after the warm up started, which is about the time lag for infection>symptoms>tested>results. If their numbers stabilize or rise this week along with some other states in the area, it would be strong evidence of that. If they continue to fall then other factors are at work.

12 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Deaths will still rise as death is a lagging indicator.

Yes I know that. Put at least there are some encouraging signs in the numbers. going forward.

Even when the missing state reports are added tomorrow, today will be about the same as last Sunday. Nationally positivity rates have stabilized and have begun to fall. Trends are suggesting a peak is occurring in the numbers overall, and hospitalizations should peak early next week.. Peak is occurring a bit quicker than I expected, tbh. Obviously, stuff like Thanksgiving gatherings could at least temporarily stop any declines. Some states will still be rising in cases, and the next few weeks will have some ugly numbers. But I think there is a good chance overall numbers are on the decline as we go through December through a combination of partial herd immunity is some hard hit upper Midwest states and more aggressive restrictions in some others.

Future spike could also flare up during the winter depending on other events like Christmas, etc.

1 hour ago, mattb65 said:

This site which previously modeled out to the future has launched a new project trying to model backwards to answer the question you are looking into above.

https://covid19-projections.com/

Their best estimate is 48M total infections but a range from 32M to 73M

Some pretty impressive/sad maps showing how widespread it has become in many of the midwest states while other states that put in measures to contain the thing - Hawaii, NH, VT, ME, CA, WA, OR have fared much better.

The per capita numbers in the Dakotas are so bad. Both now in top 10 per capita deaths, only behind the the northeast and LA/MS.The pure numbers are low so people tend to gloss over them sometimes.

Some rough math here, with some assumptions about how many cases are being missed now:

Back at April peak we were catching ~25% of cases we are now. We have good comparison data now on this by comparing cases vs hospitalizations in states like PA/MI/NJ. Takes 4x as many cases now to get same number of hospitalizations. Means with with today's testing you would have had 40k cases a day in NY! It is assumed we are currently catching 25% of actual transmission now. and have been since about July.

If you average out case load between April and early July (~3 Million cases were confirmed in this time period). you went from 16x to 4x ratio of real infections vs tested for mean of 10x.  So say (3Mx10 = 30 M real infections). From July until 16 days ago (to account for death report lag) you had 7Mx4=28M real infections. 250k/58M =~0.43% IFR.

Obvious some error bars but would imply close to 800k deaths without a vaccine with a slow burn to herd immunity. (330M*0.6*0.004) ~800k. If we are lucky the vaccine will prevent maybe 450k of those.

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Did some math on Wisconsin.  If total cases are 5x higher than confirmed (which is a very reasonable possibility, and could even be playing it conservatively), it would mean 30% of the state has been infected.  The stuff about transmission rates and how much of a percentage you have to get to start seeing some effects of partial immunity is something I don't know much about.  I think the real test will be after Thanksgiving.  If there is still no increase in Wisconsin in the weeks after Thanksgiving, and absent mitigations, then it would give credence to the idea that maybe they reached a point where the virus has taken enough people out of the "pool" (at least for a period of time) and knocked the rate of transmission back.  Very speculative though.

Would think this would happen in the Dakotas very soon. 9.5% of ND has tested positive Would imply 40%+ in state exposed.

Today may actually be lower than last Sunday. Nationwide plateau may be being reached.

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Illinois with another 10k plus day

Hospitalized actually -100 today in IL (some of that may be weekend reporting) but looks like short term the spike has at least stabilized or even dropping a bit in the upper Midwest in general. Wisconsin just came in with a much lower number (3500 cases). Tests were much lower but positivity is really coming down too. That is interesting because they have done very little mitigation there. Other areas of the country are still rising so it more than cancels the slight declines we are seeing here though. Numbers may only be up by ~10k nationally from last Sunday though so I think cases plateau nationally by next week (before any Thanksgiving spike would show up).

I know the potential benefits of the warmer weather a couple weeks ago in reducing transmission rates was discussed. Its certainly hasn't helped PA very much. They had 6500 cases today, with no Philly,

29 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

"The company (Regeneron) said it expects to have does of REGEN-COV2 treatment ready for about 80,000 patients by the end of this month, about 200,000 patients by the first week of January and approximately 300,000 patients in total by the end of January."

Also: "The FDA said the antibodies are not authorized for patients who are hospitalized due to COVID-19 or require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19."

https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/coronavirus/vaccine/fda-grants-emergency-use-authorization-to-regeneron-covid-19-antibody-given-to-trump/

So the treatment is for patients who are positive and a high risk for developing severe symptoms or have a high viral load.

That is the tricky part. You have to identify the at risk positives early in the infection cycle to get them the treatment. This is easy for Trump, not as easy for someone in a rural area who has to wait 5 days to get test results back after getting symptoms. So you need a distribution system in place as well as letting those who are at risk (older/comordibities) know that this treatment is available and to get it early.

This is a departure from the current message which is to just isolate unless you feel like you need to go to the hospital. You wait to that point its too late for the treatment. You also need to get your tests back in a timely manner. The earlier the better. Hopefully the prelim data on this is accurate and it can reduce the burden on hospital system and hopefully mortality rates (haven't seen data on mortality benefit yet) until we can get vaccinations ramped up.

Cases in the upper Midwest look to be plateauing with a slight drop in positivity. Hopefully its a sign the case  numbers will start to come down a bit at least in the short term. Note that Thanksgiving will probably mess with the data reporting this week.

As far as a spike from Thanksgiving, its almost certain. Even though I certainly won't be, you have many people who will still be engaging in eating a meal probably inside with extended family they don't normally have interactions with. They think that just because they feel fine or got a test a week ago, they are not putting anyone at risk (if they are worried about it at all, which many aren't). Its still a guess on how bad its going to be.

Nationally even if this sub forum area stabilizes some cases aren't going to drop nationally if the biggest states plus places in the south and east coast keep spiking. Three states in particular are California, Florida and Texas. The pullback in CA was absolutely necessary, their trajectory right now is a bit scary (but still not bad per capita). West Texas is in the worst shape anywhere in the country. Multiple cities/counties are asking for temporary morgues, but they cant do a single thing locally to try to contain the situation.

PA is up from last Saturday, but many state in OH Valley/upper Midwest are down significantly from last Saturday so far. ND, MN, IN all down. Signs of at least a short term peak in the region, and should help the national numbers to start to stabilize. not sure if the warm weather a couple weeks back is factor. Although it hasnt helped PA yet.Of course with weather turned colder again and Thanksgiving next week....

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Less cases today in IN than last Saturday, but there were 7000 fewer tests.  Either because of testing issues or less people feeling the need to get one.

Minnesota has much than last Saturday too, but with similar number of tests. Multiple states in the region are showing some signs of a plateau in cases and positivity.

42 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think we're about 3 weeks away from 3000 deaths per day on average. The 21 day lagged CFR has been running near 1.8 percent or so. 

Did some reading and it seems the best match is anywhere between a 16 to 21 day lag (how much lag depends on individual states and other factors). Even a conservative 16-day lag gives you 1.5-1.6% CFR. That is 2500+/day in by 2nd week in December. Unfortunately its going to get ugly in a hurry, what you saw this week is just the start I am afraid.

This thread is getting much to political, btw.

Italy is peaking at 35,000 cases/day. Adjusted to US Population that's 192,000. About 20,000/day (~12%) above the current 7-day case average for the US. So our infection rate is almost as bad as Italy with 5.5x the population.

Also, data from southern U.S. and some other countries is suggesting strong seasonality influenced by latitude but not necessarily temperature dependent I know UV radiation flux has been brought up before. Would  partially explain why places like LA County, SE Texas/Louisiana and Florida was now spiking again. Other more southern latitude N. hemisphere countries (e.g. Turkey, Pakistan) have starting spiking at the same time. doubt that is coincidence.

8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We are going to hit 200k on worldometers today. Just wow

Just hit it. Still missing one state.

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm noticing colder weather starting to be modeled. This could play a role in December's #s along with Thanksgiving. Yes we're screwed

It is quite possible the warm weather a couple of weeks ago is helping to stabilize the numbers a bit (more people outdoors). but colder weather+Thanksgiving is a major issue.

Might stay under 200k hopefully. Case growth has definitely slowed, especially in Illinois, Wisconsin, and a couple of plains states. Wisconsin has seen cases, positivity rate and hospitalizations drop a bit so might be having a bit of a peak there (for now). Test accessibility might be keeping numbers down a bit at this point in a few places though.

1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Local hospitals here in PA creating extra wings and bringing in literally any doctor and or nurse from practices or possibly out of practice possible. Head of health system said if rate continues there is no way possible they can keep up. Sobering to see in your own backyard.

+200 in Hospitalizations today in PA. 

According the American Hospital association there are approximately 800k hospital beds in the U.S. Over 10% of them are now occupied by Covid patients.

Probably 191k cases once Nebraska gets added. This is absurd. The U.S. is approaching Italy's per capita case rate. (~195k U.S. cases.).

EDIT: Finished with 192k

4 minutes ago, osubrett2 said:

Ohio’s numbers have looked “better” than last week, trending between 6400-7800/day. But DeWine confirmed today that ~12k cases, since Monday, are being double checked. And most of them are likely positive. So some backdating or a bulk upload will increase Ohio’s number dramatically. 

Ohio's hospital numbers are still going up rapidly, up 26% last 7 days.

Well a lockdown with no governmental support is obviously a disaster. Even with support a feeling of forced isolation in general will have negative effects especially on those already suffering from depression. But what hospitals in many parts of the country are now dealing with a situation that is not sustainable for any significant period of time. You have beds being set up in parking garages, many more with no ICU space, being run with overworked nurses who are getting to the breaking point dealing with multiple surges over the year in some cases. A some point you have to do something.

A major problem is a significant portion of the population just doesn't care and isn't limiting their contacts with others, either due to fatigue/tired of isolating, to literally believing its a hoax. These "curfews" have less effect if people know where wont be enforcement and don't care anymore to begin with.