Jns2183

Read up on the Brier score if you want to know how the NWS scores itself, models, forecasts, etc https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score .

I think MDT sees 6.5” .

To read each model correctly we would need a bounty of verification scores for each model that is fairly localized. And it seems that info is all behind a noaa login. I’ve spent hours looking and it appears I cannot get access to the data I want because I’m not a noaa employee. .

Part of the problem is the amount of models we have. We suffer from a gluttony of data, but a dearth of wisdom .

It’s saying one big sleet storm .

It says 4.4” on .55”qpf. Sleet? .

So will this be the storm that finally breaks the north shifts within 24 hours .

If you guys want a meetup I bartend at a local restaurant with locations in Harrisburg and camp hill. .

Haha, I can message you this evening. It has to do with goodness of fit regarding a curve .

Does anyone in here have a strong statistics background? .

MDT needs 2.4” to hit 30.6”, it’s 30 year average from 1980-2010 .

Seeing that heavy stripe that south would usually be a bit concerning if it wasn’t this year. This year it’s perfect for us .

This could be MDT 3rd double digit snowfall of the year .

The MA could get a forum wide 12” and they would still descend into the depths of Dante’s inferno due to experimental Haiti weather model that said 30” busted. .

It’s about time one of these is a bit of an over performer .

Man it felt balmy in the sun. The clouds rolled in and I feel the wet cold in my bones .

I’m on board with that icing forecast. It mirrors the valleys perfectly .

I’m not certain “looking better on screen” means what it used to given the models tendency to be more flakey then a valley girl on a speed binge. Give me a low track below DC, a high in the right position, and cold nearby and I’ll take my chances regardless of what each of the valley girls say. .

The lows going to ride the boundary. Unless that low is tracking across southern pa with a high to our north and our vulnerability to CAD, I can’t for the life of me see a low tracking south of DC, a weak one at that, is going to send a driving rainstorm through Harrisburg. This has ice written all over it .

I’d pay careful attention to the temp tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. Forecast high is 42. Let’s see if we get below forcast low of 31. I’m trying to remember how many times we have had a rainstorm with a weak low going south of us, a high over Quebec, artic air close. I don’t know. I do know long term climo says low level cold is a bitch to scour out in the LSV, especially Cumberland county. I’m also now under a WAA that every model has down by Richmond 36 hours ago .

Well we don’t have a low bombing out to give us a 3sd+ easterly fetch. We have a gulf moisture laden storm running head first into an artic dome, being reinforced by a high pressure, with us right on the boundary. Said Storm pinballs under us cause it’s not displacing that cold. This area will hold on to low level cold damn well. Now the 700/850 are just slightly above 0 if at all, and the 925 & surface seem below O. I think like Mag said before that would scream sleet. So why are the physics of the Euro spitting out freezing rain? Did anyone look at the skew-t on pivotal for the 4am? Is there a sneaky warm thin layer on there that isn’t being depicted on the 925/850/700? .

What’s the temp showing on the euro the night before storm? During storm? What time is it suppose to start? Most important is how long is duration? Is this 1” going to come in a 6 hr period or 24 hours? If it’s the latter and you have generators I’d advise to test them and fuel up. .

I trust the HRRR and 3k-NAM inside 18 hours. Seems like the rest are having an epically horrible time separating the signal from the noise. I’ve been telling people that unless it’s within 24 hours to ignore any and all forecasts .

As a bartender this past year has been about as hard as possible just making ends meet without blowing up savings. I don’t need ice to make work any slower. Plus stone slabs for a walkway are a bitch in ice. I just have my gut screaming at me to buy a generator .

I’m sorry folks. I can feel it in my gut, and in my pelvis fractures from getting nipped by a car. We are going to see our first major ice storm in 10 or 20 years. .