Jns2183

The euro is still ok .

The GFS is now showing this for 306 hrs out .

Friday night is cold with lows below 20. If this a coming in Saturday night then I’d be much more worried about ice with how hard low level cold is a leaving here .

This might be a bit long winded, but its how a look at things from a mental model frame and assigning certain weights to things. People love to preach climitaology, and it is great for some aspects, I just feel the time frame used and backwards looking nature of it combine to produce errors that are equivlent to an issue that is a major theme in risk management, econocmics, etc; that is thinking everything falls under a perfect bell curve and not being able to weight properly, low chance events, that might have a large impact. For example before the 1960's nothing in the 100 years of recorded weather history in this area would have predicted what occurred, or if did it would have been so unlikely as to disregard. The same thing happened in the last 25 years with large snow storms in this area. The average snow each year straight constant, but the frequency of large storms shot through the roof. So part of the issue is how you treat patterns that have different time periods as frequency and weight each one to see what is likely. On a much smaller scale, I find it out interesting how much people love the global ensambles here, but not a word on the sref plumes. Usually you can get an idea of possible outcomes just by seeing what grouping the plumes fall under and then if you look at the dx/dt you can get an idea of which one the trend is falling towards. I also try to take away the top and bottom 3 to get a more realistic look at the median, mean along with where the different groupings lay and where they start going apart from each other. .

Until there is reason to change it almost seems like current rules are 1) storm will be weaker cut under 2) there will be north bump in final 48 hours 3) qpf will be less than modeled 4) any storm that blows up and has a 3 or greater st dev easterly fetch will sent sleet very far inland .

That December storm was pretty well advertised in advance. Granted the jackpot moved north but the amounts the models showed did come to fruition. Currently It almost seems like a perfect storm of items models have difficulty with (la Nina, progressive pattern with a unmoving block overhead) thrown in with a dearth of upper air aircraft observations .

Think of a snow, sleet, fzra, snow,fzra,snow sandwich. We’d have a new North American glacier for a month .

My favorite is Richmond at 26” .

I know what canderson really wants is a 970 behemouth with a strong tropical connection to plow right at us with a 1050 H right over Ontario/Quebec that crawls to almost a stall with surface temperatures about 15 and 850s about 50, dropping 3” of qpf over 4 days with sustained 40mph winds for 3 of them .

I take full responsibility if we get an ice bomb due to my questioning when we last had a serious icing event here .

Man, I would 2-4” twice a week for a few weeks straight hands down over one big one that mixes 60-75% of the time here. .

That 1000 mile stream of heavier stuff is aimed right at us .

I always have loved crazy temperature differences over short distances. This map is centered on Lyles, Tn. 25 miles and 20-25 degree temperature change .

Let me know if you and whomever else is local ever wants to meet at the cork n fork downtown on a Friday fir happy hour. I usually bartend there til 4pm on Fridays and easily get a table and some deals for a group .

The 1960s were like if you were a kid in Boston when they got there 120” .

What’s amazing is when you start talking to people who love to rant on and on about how winters were back when they were kids. A large percentage of them were young kids back in the 60s .

It actually very well might have been both. The 1960s was such a ridiculous decade for snow here. Nothing in the previous 100 years before ever gave any indication that a decade like that was even possible. I think by 1971 that decade had 6 or 7 of the top 10 winters in terms of snowfall. I pity the child who grew up in the 1960s and has that decade as a baseline memory of how winters should be. If he’s a snow weenie the last 50 years probably turned him in a nihilist .

Every week from December through March had at least 4” of new snow .

I think it was the winter of 1963-1964 that harrisburg had 1” or more of snow on the ground from December 9th till April 5th. They had 12” or more for over a month with like 2weeks of 18”+ .

How long did that glacier take to melt? .

Speaking about ice storms, I think I remember the 2000-2010 era full of some pretty major ice storms. When’s the last time the LSV had an epic one with major power outages and multiple days of mass closures? .

There seems to be a sentiment in here that any model run that shows a hit will definitely change for the negative while any run that shows a miss is a lock; while the only truth this winter seems the models will change wildly outside even 24 hours at times. .

I have the weather mate iOS app and use the 15 day outlook mostly as a judge of patterns upcoming and i can’t ever recall a 15 day window that had forecasted snow occurring on 10 days, with a snowfall total of 17.2” on 2.06” qpf. Wow .

Mag, this storm has you written all over it .

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