Jns2183

A mental model I have is that it that seasonally we usually have one indice thats more "sticky" in both direction and amplitude. Further, if you look into how each one is calculated you quickly realize some are much more surface based rather than atmosphere based and that I should of paid more attention in those advanced diff equations, linear algebra, and adv statistics courses to grasp what the hell the equations are doing to the raw data to produce the final value Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's amazing looking at the local variance in rainfall in close weather stations. Within 3 miles of my house there are multiple groupings of ones reaporting 1.75" all the way to 3.1". Looking at groupings of 3+ stations all within 1 mile of each other seems to produce 10%-15% variation usually but down in New Cumberland/lower Allan area there are multiple ones with a 25% variations within a mile. To put this in snow terms it's like if capital city airport got 10", 4 blocks from the airport getting 7.5", camp hill getting 5.5", while Harrisburg airport receiving 12". Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I distinctly remember a respected poster from the Mid-Atlantic region doing a deep dive for dca snowfall for like 30years and pulled in I think at least seasonal average NAO/ENSO values if not monthly for a good portion of his study period to look at correlations. I wish I could find his post because I think he left links to his numerical data/calculations and writeup which was quite good. The thing that always stuck with me about trying to posit correlations with snow with indice values is that some are much more stable on daily, weekly, monthly readings then others (i.e ENSO vs MJO). Most of these indices were invented in the 1970s or later, with limited ability to use distant pass observations to calculate any values outside a best guess for a yearly or seasonal value. The estimates can vary wildly and older studies are super hard to get their data, hell even newer ones can be a bitch to get it coming from an outside academia amateur hobbyist position. Anyways, I distinctly remember how little seasonal and even monthly nao readings statistically impacted snowfall at DCA. I think maybe if one came up with a large multivariate dynamic system that looked at daily readings of all teleconnections to calculate parameters akin to distance, velocity, acceleration, force, momentum for each indice. While taking account for all the variables effect on each other on different time scales to adjust for inherent stability of each indice. Knowing the daily MJO phase is great, but how deep is it in the phase, how fast (absolute & net) in all plot dimensions is it traveling, same with any acceleration over different time periods, as well as distance. Now how does that daily pattern effect NAO (if at all) on different delayed time scales. If you think of a 7 days or 10 days (I e) of MJO readings as a unique song, then with calculated parameters each day as notes, with each parameters calculated parameters daily (as each notes flavors) over time then you slowly built up groupings via graph theory that essentially group all those songs into genres that have their own unique effects on the other indices depending on time scales. A large regional location like northeast, Midwest, ect maybe able to equate their exposure to genres taking into account order and time effects to a slight moderate correlation with regionwide seasonal snowfall. But even on a statewide level it comes down to randomness with a larger structural environment far more than any of us want to admit Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What are you doing way up there? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It will just be starting then, but take a look way up in the thread and you'll see a nice 972 low on one model. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Haha, Maybe worded horribly, but it is logically consistent Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Haha, it is, but even with that predictor it was pretty weak, just several times more likely than periods when it wasn't. God only knows how the hell to communicate that to the masses outside of some catchy jingle Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I think before when I looked at December snowfalls >=4" one of the single biggest predictive indicator was it fell within a 3+ day streak of 5+ below normal temps Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I took it as no periods beyond 1-2 days of departure from normal greater than 5+ degrees below normal Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I see on the NWS wind chill calculator they have watts per metered square. I'm familiar with it from solar power, but how is it related to wind chill? It seems to go down as temp increases but wind stays steady. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

45 with winds guesting to 22 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If it won't snow we really could use 4"-6" of rain Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Might be an issue with your ports on your router Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Well all I'm saying is that if Ohtani 2 million a year, 68 million deferred for all 10 years stands, than baseball is dead and I support throwing at his head. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Next Monday is an a whole decade in model real time. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How far away day wise is this? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I fly out of there new years eve Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Saw one observation of light snow/rain so probably. Only got 1.16" when yesterday they were calling for 2.23' Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What did KMDT record? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

51, light rain, some of the worst fog I've ever seen Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

49 and socked in with heavy fog Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

You and your sun. I feel like I've been lost in fog for a week over here. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Where's our 2" of rain? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

A forecast Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I would be so happy to take 3"-5" instead of 6"-10" on the west shore and start a parade. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk