Jns2183

It’s a mud bath today .

Personally I’m waiting for late March to make a run at the 90s followed 14 days later by 4sd block showing up and a cut off low dumping 45 inches of snow in the elevations in Chester county .

I thought there was a 50/50 chance, best of the year, yesterday as the day went on and the entire model set kept increasing, especially when the HRRR came started to come strong. .

I thought there was a 50/50 chance, best of the year, yesterday as the day went on and the entire model set kept increasing, especially when the HRRR came started to come strong. .

It looks like we might have finally got our over performer .

This is a first down here .

I wish we had a special CPA thread that was locked, except for posts sharing useful links to models/data, links to educational materials, reports, worthwhile multimedia. Anyways, I implore everyone to spend at least 10 mins and look through this PowerPoint turned PDF by the WPC so aptly named “Snow forecasting”. Especially pertinent is it’s information regarding boundary layer issues, snow flake growth & aggregation, mescoscale banding. It’s also a great review of basic issues https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf .

Part 2 is close to surpassing part 1 in snow department in camp hill .

Read up on the Brier score if you want to know how the NWS scores itself, models, forecasts, etc https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score .

I think MDT sees 6.5” .

To read each model correctly we would need a bounty of verification scores for each model that is fairly localized. And it seems that info is all behind a noaa login. I’ve spent hours looking and it appears I cannot get access to the data I want because I’m not a noaa employee. .

Part of the problem is the amount of models we have. We suffer from a gluttony of data, but a dearth of wisdom .

It’s saying one big sleet storm .

It says 4.4” on .55”qpf. Sleet? .

So will this be the storm that finally breaks the north shifts within 24 hours .

If you guys want a meetup I bartend at a local restaurant with locations in Harrisburg and camp hill. .

Haha, I can message you this evening. It has to do with goodness of fit regarding a curve .

Does anyone in here have a strong statistics background? .

MDT needs 2.4” to hit 30.6”, it’s 30 year average from 1980-2010 .

Seeing that heavy stripe that south would usually be a bit concerning if it wasn’t this year. This year it’s perfect for us .

This could be MDT 3rd double digit snowfall of the year .

The MA could get a forum wide 12” and they would still descend into the depths of Dante’s inferno due to experimental Haiti weather model that said 30” busted. .

It’s about time one of these is a bit of an over performer .

Man it felt balmy in the sun. The clouds rolled in and I feel the wet cold in my bones .

I’m on board with that icing forecast. It mirrors the valleys perfectly .