Jns2183

It's looking oppressive come Thursday and friday Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Bars almost full. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

My 9am flight out of Harrisburg is now leaving at 1pm due to a host of issues, but namely not having a plane till 11am that was due in last night. Been here since 730am and now I've decided a goose island IPA @9am is justified. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Flying is horrid anymore that if you have a connection it's advised to schedule it 4-6 hours after your expected arrival time Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I guess those storms this afternoon on meso were like snowstorms on 300 hr gfs Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If I were here I'd offer you a whiskey cocktail on the house Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Hi 93 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Well I'm happy I'll be gone next week. Seems 90's start Tuesday and don't end till Saturday or Sunday with Friday and Saturday progged for mid to upper 90's. If MDT hits 98, what are your guesses for KCXY? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Oh God knows I know that. I'm just trying to figure out what percentage is do to longer cycles we may have no idea about, what part do to overall changing climate and how those two interact. Hubris in all directions is mankind's greatest enemy Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Thank you so much for responding. I was hoping to having a good conversation. I go on vacation Sunday. I'll have time to dig around all the analysis I did around this info and hopefully you have some insights. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What in gods name was the point of that guys post when he won't actually engage or answer questions. I wholeheartedly support extremist on both sides of this be placed on a space ship together and shot out into the solar system where they can engage in what they love most and leave the actual problem solving to capable people not on ship. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How in gods name is that trend line beginning calculated. Just look at the 50's vs 60's there. Linear regression does not work with this data. You need multiple exponential or more realistically a complex statistically regression outside my knowledge base. But the data does not line up with the regression line Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Take the analysis back to 1900 and then try to figure out some snowfall totals from early decades compared to the 1960's and present. I think part of the discrepancy is definitely climate, but a big part also seems like a natural cycle for part of it. Let me know if you can teaseout the correlation coefficients for each part. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If anything the past 30 years have fallen in the feast or famine regime. Crazy amazings storms that were unprecedented or not snow at all. The change is in the 3-6, 6-12 snow storms. They don't happen. It's nothing or 18"+ with some minors thrown in. Basically our only snow in 2016 was out all time record blizzard of 34". The 80s were worse than 90's and 2010's Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Cherry picking data. The 1960s were so far outside the norm from the point of record initiation till then that by 1970 I believe the 1960s held the top 4 out 5 and 6 or 7 out of ten winters over the previous 90 years. A decade like that was so far outside the previous 90 years and the following 50 where I truly wonder how it happened Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

There was a big nature paper in May I think, that did a large study of the transition phases into el nino years combined with new climate data that basically predicted a hot August in the mid Atlantic to northeast Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Better than my weekends Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

We suffer much more than sport fans Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Anyone have any clue regarding those velocity returns south of Mechanicsburg by dillsburg I posted last night? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The real funny part is the HRRR at all the other short term mesos lunch for the last 6 hours. The NAM3k and FVS3 had the line as a few broken scattered showers before it even made it out of mountains. Seems like our entire convection model suite has had the accuracy of drunk monkeys playing darts this summer. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

20 min plus of continuous strong winds here. I wish I had an anemometer in my roof. I live in a narrow but 3 story house and I spent storm in my daughter's room on top floor with big windows facing west. Her one latch and lock is broken so when the wind abruptly shifted directions and increased speed it whipped window wide open as it opens outward. I had to get my belt to have enough leverage to close it in that wind until I almost had it a foot away from closing and wind direction spun back to coming from the west causing window to slame shut. Then I felt everything vibrating from my walls to the window along with a loud hallowing and it just kept on going. Being 3 stories and being the only 3 story place in some distance with nothing to break the wind but some mature tree canopys across the street. It felt like it did during Isabel Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Before I crash I saw a couple mets on Twitter mentioning how the small mesos within the line were dancing around each other in maybe a weird Fujiwara effect way. Between what I experienced with the rapid change in strong wind direction and saw on radarscope this line far exceeded my hopes. It was new, different, in interesting ways with an amazing firework show. Plus got double the high-end forecasted rain, with about an 1". Some young met student could probably do a create senior thesis on this line tonight. Or a case study for an experienced met where he gets to tell us what crack the NAM3K and FVS3 decided to smoke all day and why along with the interesting storm features. I'm most happy for the parched people to our south. The one guy in mid Atlantic forum, whose area is still strongly in D2 only had 1.87" since June 1st and I think less than 2.35" since May 1st. The line blew up south enough to give them a good drink. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Near Hannover someone took a nice low light picture of the shelf cloud associated with our line. Looks like multiple layers and crisp. Not common here at all. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Trees seem to be falling allover Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Finally my crazy wind guest I felt appears to have some radar validation. That yellow to peach area is above 60mph Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk