Jns2183
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Everything posted by Jns2183
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I’ll stick with my call yesterday of kmdt seeing 4” with a lot of ice with a caveat that within 12 miles south and north of the turnpike someone sees 2” and someone sees 8” with the key being how long after 6pm do the pingers start . Pro
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Haha, Dauphin county has contours that forecast between 2-12 over a distance of 25-30 miles. . Pro
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If it gets above freezing it will probably be between midnight and 7 am. After 7 it starts going into the freezer . Pro
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Issued at 05z . Pro
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I think (tongue in cheek) in situations like this, local meteorologist should put out a likely accumulation table for different local locations based upon the time you “hear the pingers”. I.e. Start time: 5PM pingers start at: 9PM. 2-4” pingers start at: 11PM. 4-6” Etc . Pro
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Lancaster County has a gradient that goes from 1”-9”. Horst forecast could bust in opposite ways within a 20 mile radius of his location . Pro
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I’m liking my call my of 2”-4” followed by a hellish sleet/ice fest for The LSV between 81 & turnpike, but I may have underdone the snow a bit. I think that initial wallop may be significant and put down 4”-6” followed by lots and lots of sleet and freezing rain. Speaking of which, when the hell is the best time to shovel in this scenario of snow to ice to freezer? If it gets above freezing it will only be for a short time late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. . Pro
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Don’t underestimate our glacier threat followed by a bit of rain which will do nothing but entomb everything Sunday as the temperature plummets . Pro
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The issue for the LSV is where the boundary sets up, then having to deal with mid-level temperatures & especially surface temperatures. The question is what’s the normal error in that regard for this far out. 50miles??? Which is an issue when 25 miles makes a world of difference. . Pro
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I’d be willing to bet the low stays below 40N. Still think there is going to be a world of difference between the 35 miles or so that separates 81 and Lancaster & that anyone between 81 & the turnpike gets 2-4” of snow and a whole crap ton of sleet/freezing rain . Pro
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I have a feeling that might not be accounting for sleet properly, but just look at the difference in the NAM snowfall output between those two maps posted previously. That area between 81 & the turnpike is not going to be pretty. . Pro
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0Z ECMWF 90 hr freezing rain accumulation . Pro
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The NAM has a front end crush job eerily similarity November . Pro
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Cold air in Cumberland County always seems to hang on a long time at the surface. If People see 2”-4” of snow and dismiss this storm as a triviality, then they won’t be too happy on Sunday night with 20-30 mph winds coming through as the temperature plummets toward 0. Verbatim, the forecast above is probably a higher impact event here. . Pro
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I’d wager Harrisburg sees about 2”-4” of snow, a whole lot of sleet & freezing rain, some rain for a couple hours (maybe), then the attic air turning everything everywhere into a solid glacier. . Pro
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Poor Boston.....and Egg Harbor I guess . Pro
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Except the last two big storms this winter . Pro
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Seems like it could be 8” of pure glacier . Pro
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How much sleet & freezing rain does the gfs give us? . Pro
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Granted the beam is at 7500’, but it’s still impressive. Nice thunder, lightning, and some wind here in New Cumberland. . Pro
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I’d say that radar image looks like August/September. Severe Thunderstorm warnings, lightning, the whole lot. . Pro
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Tonight.....until then you may want to break out your swimsuit, sandals, and a sweatshirt you can take off when the sun peaks through . Pro
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In a post awhile back I highlighted the amazing consistency of MDT having substantially larger rain totals then Capital City Airport, year in and year out. A mere 5 miles away. . Pro
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Nothing like a 600 mile thick rain band . Pro
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. Pro
