Jackstraw

Nice AFD from Ryan at KIND (and one of the longest short term's I've ever seen)... .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/... Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 Forecast challenges quite a bit greater than 24 hours ago as the model suite has shifted the potential for accumulating snow further to the southeast than previous runs had it. The overall model mayhem has led to some drastic changes to the forecast from just a day or two ago...highlighted by an increasing threat for accumulating snow...especially over the northern half of the forecast area. Still though with such a rapid change within many of the model solutions...confidence is nowhere near where would like to see it at this stage. A headache inducer to say the least. So why such large scale changes over just the last few model runs from just a few tenths of snow to potentially needing to consider headlines? Much has to do with the model suite`s handling of the evolution of the upper level pattern as the energy diving out of the northern Rockies carves out a deep trough over the center of the country by Wednesday. Previous runs had a cleaner transition of the energy aloft from the weakening wave over the region this morning into the expanding energy aloft dropping in from the northwest. Model guidance this morning still has this transition taking place but it is quite a bit messier with strung out energy aloft described in the near term section above aiding in less phasing at the surface and subsequently a shift south to almost all of the key features involved with this storm. A developing upper low will close off over Oklahoma/Kansas this evening then deepen as the energy aloft carves out the trough as it tracks across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Wednesday. Just two days ago...a new surface wave was developing over northern Illinois late tonight and early Wednesday in tandem with the upper low but now due to the strung out nature of the waves aloft ahead of the approaching northern stream energy...this secondary low never develops with the current surface wave over the region drifting slowly east near the Ohio River. This results in the colder airmass pivoting into the region much faster than originally thought... perhaps as early as this evening in the northern Wabash Valley before expanding southeast across the area into Wednesday. Model soundings support a gradual transition to snow from rain overnight into Wednesday morning over the northwest half of the forecast area...with a rain to snow/rain mix over the southeast half on Wednesday. Low level thermals support snow as the primary precip type over the entire forecast area by late day Wednesday. So while there is an increased threat for snow accumulations late Tuesday night into Wednesday...especially along and north of the I- 70 corridor...several caveats remain that must be considered in determining amounts. The model suite is capturing a trailing surface trough behind the departing low pressure system with a trowal extending west in tandem Wednesday morning. The strong energy aloft mentioned above will dive around the base of the approaching upper low and into the region Wednesday morning enhancing diffluence aloft. These features combined with the potential for a mid level deformation axis to rotate across the northern half of the forecast area could support a threat for heavier bursts of snow through the day. With that being said...surface and ground temps will be a factor for a good chunk of the day with low to mid 30s common across the region before turning colder by Wednesday evening. The above factors could lead to heavier snowfall rates that would overcome these marginal temps but some melting of snow does seem likely when rates remain lighter which will knock totals down. A lot to consider here and a lot that could bust potential snowfall totals. That being said...feel strongly from a public impact standpoint that a headline needs to be introduced over northern counties where confidence is highest at the moment for impacts and accumulations. Will introduce a Winter Storm Watch...essentially north of a Crawfordsville-Anderson line...which offers the most flexibility at this point considering the constant model shuffling that has occurred over the last 24-48 hours and may continue with the 12Z runs today. Have 3-5 inches in these areas...1 to potentially as high as 3 to 4 near the I-70 corridor in the transition zone and lighter amounts further south. Fully expect that an Advisory at a minimum will be needed over parts of the northern forecast area should trends continue and the dayshift will have an additional set of runs to determine if further adjustments in location and amounts is needed. The main message at this point is that adverse winter weather and snow accumulations are becoming more likely for late Tuesday night and especially Wednesday over the northern half of the forecast area. Snow will gradually diminish Wednesday night as the upper low shifts east of the region. High pressure will build in on Thursday but cloud coverage will remain higher as a fast moving clipper system dives through the Missouri Valley. This feature will track into the lower Ohio Valley Thursday night. While the focus of the precipitation will be southwest of the forecast area...flurries or light snow may skim the lower Wabash Valley early Friday. Plan on keeping the forecast dry at this point but will be something to monitor going forward. Temps...heavily utilized ConsAll numbers for hourly temps late tonight in Wednesday to try and better capture the expansion of the colder air. Temps will drop steadily after 06Z tonight back into the lower and middle 30s with little to no recovery on Wednesday before the much colder air arrives Wednesday night. Generally undercut MOS guidance as a result for highs Wednesday. Much colder Thursday with some portions of the area remaining in the 20s. Lows will fall back into the teens over much of the area by Thursday night. &&

Like Stebo said this system is barely inside 48 hours. I think the "consistency" of the models showing substantial snow inside 120/96 and not letting up this time got everyone excited, plus the light at the end of the tunnel for this winter season is in sight. I'd love to lock in this 00Z NAM in but my ass has been on fire all this season lol. 00Z runs we'll see if the trend continues, think there's a good chance to back some NW. For posterity I'll take a sounding like this all day long...

The Carpathia is down here in N Central IN to pick up survivors

Fat Lady sings at 00Z

Just sitting back enjoying the L&O Valley show lol .

Thats flippin crazy. Storm Ciara was the strongest in like 10 years but that pressure is nuts.

-4 last night, already 6 below forecast low, down to 1. Snow pack helping the radiational cooling for sure.

I'm on the north side of the mediocre winter climo for this sub so it's really got to be bad for me to complain. I need to pick up 20 inches to reach average this year. Wouldn't be so bad if I had a year in the last 8 that was 20 inches over but only had 2 that were at or slightly above average since I moved back. The only good thing about this trend is slowly lowering the average thereby lowering expectations. Geez, next year if I get 6 in 24 hours with a 25mph wind I'll be comparing it to 77

Euro and Canuk showing some legit arctic air setting in for a couple days late next week/weekend. If it happens and we can get a system come through to tap into it Biloxi will probably get a foot

We overperformed here with a non official 61 by 5 degrees (with a feels like temp of 80, I was sweating lol). We're supposed to "plummet" to 34 tonight, currently 43 then "soar" to 58 tomorrow. If we can stay sunny tomorrow I'm calling 63. Regardless took the day off to get some stuff done outside I missed because of "Winterfall".

I don't think I've ever seen this much consistent inconsistency in the models in winter over the conus in my short years following. 1 or 2 hundred miles on tracks this far out, sure. But we've been seeing 3 to 5 hundred mile to shredded nothingness this winter. I know in the tropics models always struggle with weak systems and with weak steering. There really hasn't been strong ridges and strong lows this season and hardly any deep arctic air dropping down, for a lot of reasons that have been posted, and the baroclinic zone has been very low this winter IMO . I wonder if this is causing the problem with the models across the conus. With such a consistent weak split flow across the conus, as fine a resolution as some have (and that is totally subjective) it's just not fine enough to whittle out the details and/or how much climo is influencing some of them (I'm not sure how much climo data they put weight on). Regardless, if this keeps up, I think this may be one of the worse model verification winters in a long time because damn near none of them have verified, especially in our area, for snowfall, or QPF for that matter, outside 24 hours. They're not even verifying that well in the mountains out to the W/NW where it should be close to cut and dry. The mountains in BC should have about 800 inches of snow by now lol. Just my armchair 2 cents but something is really strange this winter model wise. Maybe it will snap back late and cover some of the models butts, however, as has been posted, the long range models don't look that good. But then again 2 months ago the long range looked better than it is right now. If this pans out this may be a winter to study the complete failure IMO of the "new and improved" models across the board. I'll wait for someone smarter than me (which are many) and read the book.

Seriously?

Just hit 60 here also. Grill's gonna be a challenge lol

Had about 1.5 hours of sun before noon today for the first time since like Xmas. Thank goodness. Went outside in my shorts to replenish my vitamin D deficiency.

As long as Chattanooga doesn't get more snow than us I'm game. I'm cautiously optimistic but that sure looks like the SE could get a paralyzing 6 incher.

I'm going to code my own model running an algorithm that inputs data from keywords from our sub forum. I bet it's clown maps would be as accurate run to run as these sooper compooters

Every morning looks like a painting by the dark side of Bob Ross when he forgot to take his meds for a couple days. Ain't no happy little trees or bushes. Just dreary depression day after day after day.

PT Barnum model

No science here obviously lol. But I really feel like this is going to be a bookend winter with a bunch of piss in the middle. My area is below normal precip wise, liquid/frozen -30%, and above normal temp wise +10%. Vegas odds are the rubber band snaps towards the middle to latter half of Feb to early March. The overall storm track tendency hasn't really changed since Aug/Sept and is very favorable for a big dog around here if one of these can just tap some cold air. Halloween cold air tap was a surprise. The split flow ninoesque pattern that followed was a surprise. But the potential deep winter cold air tap that is lurking to the north, and you can see it there, combined with this consistent storm track could very well lay down a late winter big dog. Models are trending colder in fantasy land for once this season, not just cold but some real arctic air intrusion but without deep suppressive ridging. I just feel like something has to give this winter to make the stars align, we are way overdue. All my years living next to the ocean and dealing with the tropics in the SE taught me one thing, it only takes one big one to even the score during years of drought. Or maybe it's just me having visions of Hank Stram when I was 8 years old thinking anything is possible lol.

When GRR is optimistic times are tough

We might see the moon one night lol.. Tonight Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. West southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Cloudy, with a high near 35. West southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Sunday Night Cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Monday Cloudy, with a high near 34. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday Cloudy, with a high near 36. Tuesday Night Cloudy, with a low around 28. Wednesday A slight chance of snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Friday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

IWX earlier today says it all... For Sunday through Thursday little if any precipitation is expected with seasonably mild temperatures for this time of year. Highs should be from around 35 to 40 each day with lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s each night. Most noticeable will be the absence of arctic air with the continued pattern of above normal temperatures (Fort Wayne has only had 3 days the temperature has been below normal during the past nearly 5 weeks).

Well at least we don't have to worry about this lmao...