snywx

6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Heavy snow falling right now @ Canistear  Reservoir. Will measure in a few minutes.

Keep those observations coming. It’s good to know what those echoes are producing to my south

Snow starting to pick up again. Plowed roads have a fresh coating
 

temp 32

Lgt snow

temp 32

2.5” otg

7 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

37 and rain here at 125’ of elevation in eastern Orange County, NY

That gradient through the county is gonna be wild 

Mod snow here

temp 31

1.5” otg

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ 4SW 3PM 0.7" on everything except treated roads wet with slightly slushy shoulders. 30.6/29.7. Light north wind.   Think I am too conservative on amounts up here in Sussex County.  

18z HRRR & NAM came in much snowier for these parts. It’s hard to find any piece of guidance that suggest anything under 10” now for western orange county

Heavy snow now 

solid coating on all surfaces

Lgt snow here 

temp 30

Overcast 

Temp : 26/23

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The storm really gets going tonight and Friday as the low move
off the middle Atlantic coast and moves towards the region.
Precipitation becomes widespread across the entire region, with
some of the precipitation falling moderate to locally heavy at
times late tonight into Friday morning.

Winter headlines continue until 1am for Western Passaic and
until 10am Friday for Orange County where temperatures will be
cold enough for a longer period of snowfall. While it appeared
that there could be a period of freezing rain over the last 24
hours, it does not appear that way with the latest 00z runs.
With most of the guidance backing off on this, I have removed
the mention of freezing rain thus taking out any ice
accumulations.

Snowfall amounts will be rather tricky across Orange county. Right
now, while there is a winter weather advisory, I do think there
could be a portion of Orange county that could or will meet warning
criteria (6+ inches). The best chances will be across the far
western sections of the county, mainly north and west of the I-84
corridor from Port Jervis to Montgomery. It looks like there could
be a fairly tight gradient of the heaviest snowfall, the main
question is where does that gradient set up. Also, there is a chance
that some location, mainly far western Orange could see a brief
period of heavy snowfall where amounts could reach rates of 1 inch
per hour for an hour or two. Have decided to go with an advisory vs
a warning for Orange county, because at this time, it does not
appear that more than half of the county will reach warning level
snowfall.

Outside of Orange County NY and Western Passaic NJ, the rest of the
Lower Hudson Valley, rest of NE NJ, and interior SW CT is expected
to see a mostly a rain event with the possibility of a rain/snow
mix to start. Little to no accumulations are expected in these
locations. Along the coast, including the NYC Metro, coastal CT
and Long Island, pretty much a plain rain event is expected.

Should be interesting to watch unfold

11 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Models are really struggling with the snowfall gradient across NW NJ and the Lehigh Valley of PA.  Compare the 0z and the 6z Euro.  The 6z HRRR and the 12z HRRR are another pair to look at.

What did the 6z Euro show snowfall wise. I’m hearing it ticked cooler

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Just letting you know that 11z HRRR temps seem absurdly warm at midday into western NJ... not sure what the problem is.  If they are that warm... there won't be much accumulation in SC.  That temp of 34 at KORH is bothersomely warm at 7AM.  

Lots of uncertainty in Sussex County NJ and probably up to POU in the modeled Kuchera snow gradient.  

24/21 here. 
 

looks like upton is finally acknowledging the potential for a tight snow gradient here in Orange County

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Big difference between GFS and CMC especially in HV. 

 

W of the Hudson looks locked in on most guidance. You can see some evidence of potential downsloping along & E of the river

0z GFS wow 

It continues to print out a huge event for these parts 

51 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Winter Storm Watch up in Orange county, obviously higher amounts expected in NW section and higher elevations. 

Yeah they finally pulled the trigger. Meanwhile the 18z GFS continues to double down on a big time event for the 84 corridor 

12z GFS continues to double down. I would cut those totals In half. I highly doubt anyone in the 84 corridor is seeing 12-20” lol

10 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Couldn’t say I’d be shocked at that outcome since my ultimate results of any storm always differ wildly in these mixed bag situations as opposed to Rock Hill/MSV/what have you given the 300-400+ elevation changes in the matter of roughly 30 miles between where I am and those locations 

Rock hill, Yankee lake, MSV all sit above 1500’ what a weenie location lol

8 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I’m swinging a bit lower end for MBY because I’m lower than most (maybe 750-900) but I should still pull at least 4-6 without much of a sweat before any junk mixes in if it gets here 

I like the Rock Hill area for this one. 12+ there

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Yeah, a touch colder so I'm getting a little more intrigued now, lets hope this starts a trend.

It’s tough to pull the trigger on a big event lol. We are soo close to the big snows but that R/S is awfully close. Most guidance has 6+ for us too

44 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

From my local NWS office:

 

As for precipitation type, this is where confidence decreases.
We are confident that higher elevation areas will see mostly
snow from this system, with impressive snowfall totals in many
cases of 12-18" or more. However, snowfall accumulations are
much less certain for valley areas despite models having
generally converged on a low track from eastern NJ over Long
Island and then over RI. At this time, thinking that even valley
locations see snow to start. Snow quickly transitions to rain
along the I-84 corridor. Further north, the transition is
expected to take longer, with the Capital District potentially
seeing snow through 7-11z before the changeover begins. However,
there are several complicating factors, and a temperature
difference of just a degree or two could make the difference
between several hours of snow and several hours of rain.

Some of these complicating factors include: the fact that
radiational cooling may lead to temperatures below those
expected by model guidance to start the day Thursday.
Furthermore, with a cold high to the northeast, we will likely
see some cold air damming, which is often underestimated by
models. Also, strong forcing for ascent will likely lead to an
overlap of strong omega with the DGZ, and we may see dynamic
cooling where this heavier banding of precip sets up; also, if
snowfall rates are high enough we could see accumulating snow
where temperatures are 33-34F. On the flip side, a warmer
outcome is possible if a) clouds move in quicker than expected
tonight, b) if precip is lighter in the Hudson Valley due to
downsloping, and c) because the surface high is further
northeast than is ideal. After taking all of these factors into
account, the decision was made to increase snowfall totals
slightly in our latest forecast for valley areas, especially
from the Capital District northwards.

 

Overall, this will be a long duration event that will begin
Thursday evening and last into the beginning of the long term
period. When all is said and done, light to moderate snowfall
accumulations are expected for valley areas, with heavy to
possibly significant snowfall accumulations in the higher
elevations. We will continue to monitor latest trends and
update the forecast as new data becomes available

 

 

 

My buddy lives near Monticello, he is expecting 16" of snow....lucky bastard

Sullivan county should cash in with this event. 75% of that county is over 1200’. @crossbowftw3should do well too

12z NAM came in a bit snowier for the I-84 corridor. My initial thinking is a general 4-8” primarily W of the Hudson. The potential exist for 8+ in western Orange County >1000’

7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

18z GFS - Oh how I wish. 

 

 

A thing of Beauty!

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Near Campbell Hall NY, 5.1" final. Everything plastered in snow still, a true winter wonderland

Beautiful scene this morning 

5” here just west of Middletown Ny

29 w/ lgt snow

4” at the stake 

29 w/ lgt snow

4” otg