snywx

24 minutes ago, binbisso said:

8-12” is a good call up here 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

SNE took all the snow even from the NW crew. Yes they will still get snow but the majority is going to fall in SNE 

Every piece of guidance has 8”+ up here. No one took anything away. 

N/W of 287 are in line for a nice 3-6” event w/ 6-8” spots near I-84

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Can we take the psycho analysis and the fake pessimism and the fake optimism somewhere else and stick to the weather? Holy hell this is impossible to read. 

By reading the last few pages you would think we were in for all rain. A good chunk of this forum will see a plowable snowstorm 

Damn CMC goes to town on both events for interior sections. That HP is holding firm for 1/10 event 

15 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

19z BOM goes with 7-9” across eastern/NE PA, western/NW NJ, SE NY, and interior CT.

BOM? I’ve seen this referenced lately 

12z GEFS prob of >4"

I think coastal sections might be able to squeeze out a few inches before the changeover but ultimately this is a N/W 287 snowstorm. Almost every piece of guidance now has 8-12" for NE PA, NW NJ, HV into SNE

Happy New Year! Hopefully this weekend can turn into a I-84 special!

27 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Random, but just saw a meteor (borderline fireball) fall from the sky to the north. Considering I saw it through cloud-cover, it was pretty cool. 

Saw it here also.. It was to the north of me as well 

impressive cold this morning considering there is 0 snowpack anywhere near here.

Down to 15° here

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Brutal:  Good track but zero cold air....

97-98 all over again 

56f w/rain

2.06” so far w/ very little wind to speak of 

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Another significant weather event is headed our way, about 7-8 days after the last. By the time the first day of winter officially starts, we may see a little snow or ice for the interior and substantial rainfall that could prompt flood and coastal flood statements for our area.  

Sunday-Thursday "potential pair" of wet events that could eventually change to ice or wet snow, especially I84 elevations Tuesday-Wednesday.  Substantial rainfall is outlooked... probably at least an inch for virtually the entire NYC subforum and possibly """isolated 6"""" worst case.  Not saying 6" will occur but it's in some of the advance modeling and it could end up over the fish.  Persistent northeast winds for possibly up to 4-5 days could be a coastal flood problem.

A disturbance in the southwest USA today-Wednesday 12/13 migrates east, ingesting short waves from the northern stream and a juicy one out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Then it apparently plods northeast along the east coast. How close the upper low comes up here before fading east is with the traditional uncertainty and TBD, but it will be interesting to monitor.  

There could be a significant banding signal well to the northwest of the upper low and if that upper low holds together longer and eventually makes it up to the south of LI by the start of winter., it will have produced quite bit of impact here.  That is still very uncertain and not a lock.

Modeling seen through 06z/13: EC-EPS is basically one and done by late Tuesday, but it even flags interior snowfall, the GEFS is most robust for wintry weather and the CMCE, a slightly warmer model, also has some wintry stuff a little further north of I84. All ensembles agree on accumulations Adirondacks. 

This is another El Niño event, that is particularly juicy (see FL coast pressure intensity), and has a noticeable RRQ of the upper jet near the Canadian Maritimes (southern-northern stream merge) to assist upward motion. 

Will there be two events next week? or just one centered on Monday?  

Thank you for the update Walt.. some wintry weather up here in the 84 corridor would be nice

4 minutes ago, Tpalm5 said:

Up on top, I have a bunch of cellular trail cams that showed some decent snow cover this morning. All melted now. But yes, Highland Mills seems to frequently be a jackpot area!


.

Nice! I believe schnemunk is the highest point in Orange County at around 1600’

5 hours ago, Tpalm5 said:

2.13” for the event here. 74.35” YTD.

A couple inches of snow on Schunnemunk Mountain >1,000’ in elevation.


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Up at the top or near the reservoir ? My folks live right off ridge rd up there. Nice little weenie spot for snow 

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

Two CoCoRaHs sampler rainfall maps and one snowfall for the NYC subforum.  Please click for clarity. The only element that didn't pan out was the wind...  also. note that there are power outages affecting areas with seemingly combined 4+" snowfall and decent wind gusts shaking the wet snow off the branches (and probably breaking them). It looks to me like everything ab over 1000 feet picked up an inch or more of snow with the break point on Trace snow mush covering deck, maybe somewhere between 500 and 800 feet MSL.  

That 3.9” in Orange County is on geeenville mtn. Elevation there is about 1300’

Just now, lee59 said:

Some of the forecasts I have looked at on the NWS site for the areas under winter storm warnings are interesting. The actual forecast calls for less than an inch but there is WSW up.

Gonna be elevation dependent. Below 1000' up in BGM area will prob see 1-3" 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We are going into 7 and 8

You want snow you are gonna have to head to the catskillls. Above 1500’ they aren’t doing bad and about to get another 6”+

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Liking the possibility I can get into a 6-8 hour window of snow Sunday night-early Monday. Obviously going to be very poor ratios but 1-3 seems like a safe bet at my elevation with more as you go up 

I just commented on that in the main thread. NAM now gives the area 2”+ w/ greater amounts above 500’

Looks like a potential for 1-3” for areas in orange/Sussex county especially over 500’

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Where the heck is that? Clearly, nowhere near New York City.

The Catskills

19° for a low here 

32 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

.3” here, still not above freezing but close at 31.7°

0.8” here 

31.5 here w/ freezing drizzle. Secondary roads are slick. 

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

First accumulating snow of the season here as well, 12 days later than my average but also not even close to the latest I've recorded.  31/28 with light snow starting to mix.

Didnt expect accumulating snow here as well. Just under 1" here