LP08

H5 noticeably quicker through 48 with a SE push no the EURO.

Maybe Joe B is deleting the west tracks from his maps to make the snow mean higher for clicks.....

Should be fun for a few hours.

Looks like a lot of us avoid a drenching rain, so that's a plus.

If anything through 60, its a little slower than 6z.

14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The surface low path on the ICON is interesting.  Just offshore SC/NC, over the southern Outer Banks, and then it curls back under the 500 low west of Va Beach.

12z ICON sends the H5 vort from the central NC/VA border, through richmond, over the bay and over the delmarva.

Considerably slower than the globals.  Ok enough Nam talk.

Nam long range so all caveats yada yada, but at 75 the NS SW looks elongated and "over the top" rather than diving into the Trough.  H5 way south compared to other models.

Subtle changes but two things I see to watch today.  Using the Nam cause its running.

Ocean storm intensity (notice the change in strength from 6z to 12z and as it pushes northeast).  Pushing the PV lobe west some, causing heights to drop in the east.  This allows our storm to gain longitude as it moves.  

Second piece not in range but talked about a bunch.  NS SW that eventually phases with our storm.  Delay it and the storm gets further east before turning north (delays the trough turning negative). Speed it up and congrats Pittsburgh.

Trough went negative sooner than 18z.  

For fun, delay that NS capture by a few hours and..

H5 was on va/Nc border, now on Nc/sc border.

Just west of OBX at 99.  Nice shift south and east.

Savannah GA at 90

We are going to have a 100 page storm thread before the NAM gets precip to us….who said long tracks are no fun.

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Stuck at work again today. First chance I have had to look at the 12z runs. I dont want to piss anyone off but:

Temps in the Mid to upper 20's at onset.  

114, Mix line pushing west of 95.  LP over Richmond.  NW VA crushed.

Mod snow by 108 into DC, still heavy snow throughout VA.

Don't like the EURO at 96.  Slower H5, will be west of 0z.

Best part about this storm is it snows during the day/evening and we can just go to bed when it flips.

96.  NS a little slower to dive in and main h5 a little quicker.  Mostly just noise but any little bit helps.

Looks a little flatter out front through 90.  Perhaps stopping the west trend a bit..