LP08

RGEM looks mighty close at 84

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

ICON is not going to go well to start 12z out

Has the NS fluff but coastal is a tick or so east of 6z.  

8 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

At hour 66 the NAM looks to be strongly in the camp of leaving energy in the SW....definitely not Euro like.  

Better than 6z but you can tell kinda early at least in my eyes.  At HR 60 on the 0z euro, our NS SW is in Wyoming while the majority of guidance is in Idaho.  Not a huge difference but to me it looks like this way it avoids burying itself in the SW.  I could be totally wrong but toggling the runs this morning that stuck out to me the most.

Euro is much further east with the NS SW that dives in through montana than every other piece of guidance.  That's only  at HR 36 or so.  Probably helps prevent it from leaving to much behind in the South West.

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have had way more snow here in March than December in recent winters. More than Feb in some cases.

The first 15 days of March are winter.  We go through this every year and with examples of how it has worked but still it comes up.  It’s just hard to snow here any month.

I want to believe the euro, but where have we seen an over amped solution at day 4 before?  Oh right, last week.

It’s that time where we cling to any model that doesn’t look terrible.  That NS feature above the Dakotas is further west than the euro and the southern vort isn’t as stretched out.

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Thats exactly what I said when someone posted the Euro 12z image, all it has to do is close off 100 miles west or 6 hours earlier... CMC does both

Hah...it was me that posted 12z euro.

CMC closes off 6 hours sooner than the euro.

First model that I have seen close off at 500 south of us.  Could be wrong about that though.

Definitely see more west of the mean/OP.

I'm thinking there will be quite a few good ones in the individuals...

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

That doesn’t look all that great to me lol

It tucks just off NYC.  H5 must have closed off south of us and offshore.

CMC is a monster hit.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Gaining on it

Gets precip from the coastal to just west of the bay, east of 95.  Almost did it.

ICON is improved from 6z.  Not as good as the GFS but a good step west.

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Surface still blows donkey....though agreed h5 improved with trough axis going neg earlier.

To be honest I didn’t check the surface before posting.  I doubt the icon of all models will be perfect at the surface evolution at 120 but I digress.

Icon was an improvement in my eyes.  

Trough is a bit further east than the 18z run, but an improvement over 6z

Better dig than 6z

NS at 75 much quicker through Canada than 6z

At 108…it’s starkly different than 18z.  

Just now, nj2va said:

They need to update the HRRR to run out to 120 every hour. Imagine the mood swings in here? 

Best part would be as soon as it ends a new one begins.

I don’t like the UKIE but this would be close/good.