LP08

12 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Minor changes early on the Nam but the SS sw is slower and that NS sw is weaker.

No precip north of the NC border on the 12k.  

Minor changes early on the Nam but the SS sw is slower and that NS sw is weaker.

Anybody in the metro area thinking that by the end of next week we see this again? Lol

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

With?

Intuition 

At least we get smoked next weekend on the euro 

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

First storm is interesting for the SE parts of the forum but watch the temps.  We saw this last year…red flag when the NAM in range is above freezing  for a lot of the event.  12Z Monday NAM v. GFS.

 

 

Can’t really compare those panels as verbatim….Nam has basically zero precip vs the gfs pushing .75” of liquid.  I wouldn’t doubt the Nam being cold enough if it had the gfs precip at the same time. 

Probably too little too late but…

Nam won’t get there but it made a pretty sizable move towards the GFS-ish solution

One will probably be wrong….lol

Just now, stormtracker said:

H5 on the GFS is slightly better vs 12z..

More separation from that NS Vort.  Slower SS.  Will be close.

Gfs is stubborn, I’ll give it that…

On 12/16/2021 at 7:27 AM, LP08 said:

Don’t do to much now…

25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

get the I believe meme...I can't hear the bell

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some of y'all might have a better idea about the 'trends' if you stopped looking at op run surface maps.

A tradition unlike any other.  Heading into Christmas.

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

You can meme me and meme me and meme me, but I still maintain that Mid Atlantic'ers will be pleasantly surprised by snow and cold this winter. In spades. Speakin of which, Get your Jebman shovels now!

20 minutes ago, H2O said:

Pray for snow somewhere close so I can go chase it.  That will cut down on the memes

Other than maybe a chance at something next week (seems low now), GEFS at day 15 is not promising for a lot of December.  Looks like the only hope is to have that Alaskan ridge push into the EPO region to dislodge some cold into the CONUS, but these anomalies are the opposite of what we would want.

BWI - 8.1"

DCA - 4.6"

IAD - 10.4"

RIC - 4.8"

SBY - 2.6"

Backside vort out of Canada is slower to dive in the backside of the trough, definitely not as good as 6z on the GFS.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is basically banter, so apologies, but I'd pay an obscene amount of money to move this up a day and get some snow falling during the UVA/Virginia Tech football game. Only thing that could make UVA routing Tech better is if it was a snow game... 

To end the banter, snowmap!

We are a basketball school now (the bolded)

....but yes that was a nice change from its 6z run and showed the progression that @MillvilleWx was showing earlier.

ICON delivers Sunday into monday with the heaviest stripe of snow through EZF...