weatherwiz

I know you were...but it would still be kinda fun to see such statistics. Actually, all joking manner aside those statistics could probably be used to provide value in some aspect with model improvement. All I asked if whether you thought an occurrence of once every 10 years or so is considered frequent or infrequent but you're reply made me laugh...but I agree with you that the data set can lead to a misrepresenting due to very long droughts combined with higher frequency periods (think that's what you were alluding too anyways)

I would be curious on these statistics as well. Question...interested in your opinion on this. Someone asked me on twitter at the end of last week if I thought there was still a shot for Dorian to track west into SNE (lol)...I said no...then just shortly explained it takes a special pattern for us to get hit (I didn't specify landfall or direct impact)...that's why it's so infrequent here. then someone said we average a landfall every 10 or 11 years and said that's not infrequent...what would you consider that?

How said trough evolves pushing through the central states and blocking over Greenland will be critical. The evolution of the two are also tied together. Virtually I think if there is a good handle/signal on the evolution of the trough the downstream signal will be reflected accordingly.

I actually agree...the potential pattern configuration is something which can favor a track up the EC.

so January?

Looks like GFS is sustained TS winds at CHH for several hours moving into Saturday morning. Bufkit looked like maybe gusts 40-45 knots...think I would take the over on that verbatim

NAM/GFS/euro look to get the Cape pretty good. Looks like euro has gusts 50-60+ knots

TWC tweeted they are in contact with Josh!!! He is safe

There was a post on twitter which showed the area of the school Josh was in...if that indeed is the area...idk. Very sick feeling in my stomach right now.

I hope those warming cloud tops around the center of Dorian are indicating the eye is trying to re-organize. Looks like cloud tops are cooling too on the SE side of the eye and with bands wrapping around SW side.

That is gut wrenching. How the heck do you survive that? ughhh

Turtle's name is also spelled Eleanor

That does look like a decent structure...hopefully there was not significant flooding there but from the few videos out there not sure how likely that is. Josh certainly knows what he’s doing though and I’m sure he had a backup to a backup to a backup al planned out and if he sensed danger he would quickly react

It seems like most of that information is just rumors and speculation. I spent a good chunk of the night reading around and looking for info but there never seems to be a direct source the info is coming from.

Ughh. I know in this past sometimes it’s been days since word but. I hope he’s alright :/

Without shifting through the tropical thread any updated word on Josh?

oh yeah...I think into SNE is unlikely...but re-strengthening over the Atlantic and making additional landfall across the mid-Atlantic coast somewhere is certainly possible.

12z GFS bufkit for MCO is a disaster. Over 10'' of rain and winds gusting over 70 knots for quite a duration

I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured.

Based on what just happened with Puerto Rico a turned certainly can't be ruled out. Looks like this idea is related to the forward speed of Dorian. the 12z guidance though has a pretty strong clustering with this though. Steering flow looks to bring it right into FL too...but any weaknesses within the upper pattern could certainly change things.

I highly doubt the airport would be open Monday if current projections hold.

The rainfall potential here scares me...I wouldn't be surprised to see some 15-25'' rainfall amounts. That would be catastrophic. Heck, even storm surge has me a bit worried.

Could be very bad news for parts of FL. Some of the scenarios are pretty worrisome too with Dorian just stalling (which is a very real possibility) and dumping very significant rainfall totals. Could be very bad news...especially with coastal flooding/storm surge

WTF with the last 3-4 pages Maybe Donald Trump should just nuke this thread instead

Gotcha...I have never really followed tropical much and was using this in conjunction from what I have read...so virtually my being not very knowledgeable (especially with regards to the "climo") makes it difficult to use historical information with what I'm looking at.