weatherwiz

I'll start a thread...I have incredible luck with the convective/severe wx threads. 

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

that would be it!!!

add it to the list 

@dendrite

you should look into adding the waving a white flag emoji 

That boundary next week looks to be no joke...could be a rather substantial gradient...going from like +8C to -8C to  in a rather small across a small horizontal scale. Also looks like it could be very active convectively in the south (mentioned this a few days ago!!) with severe outbreak possible...hopefully that won't rob any moisture. Often times too I feel like these overrunning scenarios struggle to pan out to what their first modeled to be. Something else too with the convection is if it is indeed active the models may struggle with the heights here in the east. 

Who is Heat miser? Thought cold miser changed his name but they're new. 

I don't like overrunning...usually get screwed with all the fun just north. 

My clue for me getting a t'storm was Bradford, PA...you know that regional map thing they would have on the local where it would give current conditions across the region? If Bradford, PA was getting a t'storm...usually meant I was. That made me do some fun dances back in the day 

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

One of my favorite parts of the local forecast was actually looking at the pressure. I remember during the summer on days where t'storms were possible going crazy when I saw the pressure was dropping.

Today marks the first day of the SPC using PROBABILITIES for ALL SEVERE HAZARDS for the day 2 outlook!!!! Big step towards spring/summer folks. Very fitting too with severe wx in southern FL tomorrow

4 minutes ago, Heat Miser said:

Why Feb 10, specifically? That strikes me as still maybe a week or two early to consider winter's back broken.

Locks himself in a dungeon with Valentines Day approaching 

I wonder what happens first...the Red Sox hire a manager or we get accumulating snow

You know what's one thing I've never heard mention of this winter...is PDO. In fact, haven't heard much on PDO recently. I am out of the loop with it...although I am trying to get back into long-range aspects but is the PDO not really a tool used like it once was? I'm sure the PDO has had to have some type of influence on the pattern...

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are a snapshot in time....the analogs are actually dates within the month...for example, we had 3 dates in Feb 1967 showing up recently...it basically means that Feb '67 had a pretty consistent pattern that looks like the one being modeled for early February. The analogs don't tell us how the pattern will look in late February though....the pattern could change. I mean, just look at the months themselves in the analogs....when we see 2/8/94 as ananalog...it means the pattern looks similar to that date, but it doesn't tell us anything about later that month....Feb 1994 torched for a week after Valentines day....it doesn't mean 2020 would do that because the analog was only for 2/8/94....likewise, an analog for early Feb 1967 doesn't mean that we're going to stay cold like most of that month was.

Gotcha....makes much more sense now. 

There is a part of me which just doesn't like analogs...not sure if it's b/c perhaps they're misused or misunderstood but you see it alot too with severe wx setups...people will go nuts b/c you have all these historic analogs popping up for an event and expect the current setup to produce similar results...and I think this goes for any type of weather event. 

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our good analogs come up too...Feb '67 has been there almost every run....Feb '94 is coming up. Feb '89 is there too. Haven't seen last year actually. Feb '59 is a frustrating analog too that has popped up, though not as bad as Feb ''89.

The analogs highlight exactly what the narrative has been though....it can work out or could be a dud....it's not what people want to hear because they want "locked in" patterns and certainty....but this is the opposite of that.

There is something I've always been confused on regarding analogs. When these analogs are being tossed out are they just measuring (or matching up) the projected pattern to a previous pattern? Or do they take into account other factors such as pattern transition/evolution? 

For example, if December 1989 was popping up as an analog for the first two weeks of February...is that just indicating the projected pattern is very close in magnitude to that of December 1989...and nothing else. 

This is where I think analogs are limited b/c they just tell you pattern similarities but what they don't tell you is pattern evolution and I would think it's pattern evolution which is the biggest driver into how things transpire (again...this assumption is based on my understanding which may be completely wrong). 

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'll be funny when NNE is the only one to see accums out of this.

Don't forget James 12'' 

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kudos to you for never wavering in the weekend “threat”.

Steve is solid at that. He isn't one to whistle a different tune every time a new model run or data comes out.

I've been reading on on some papers regarding ENSO (not necessarily newly published papers) but one thing I find intriguing regarding ENSO is how the ENSO event develops...and more specifically EL Ninio events. Obviously each event is different...different strengths, where the warmest anomalies are located, but this one paper I'm reading talks about HOW the event develops...I guess typically you would expect EL Nino's to develop as the easterlies weaken (or reverse in strong events) the WHWP spreads east...however, EL Nino events as of late have had a tendency to develop in the central Pacific. 

Just now, weathafella said:

That’s the year Morch got its name, right?

WTF...NWS pages have been very odd lately

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Hope we Morch 2012

That would be welcomed 

Just now, OceanStWx said:

You can all but guarantee something chaseable during those weeks, and all but guarantee anything in the Northeast will pale in comparison.

With my luck a 592-dm ridge will become parked over the central U.S. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Rays last snowmap of the season drawn last night... and for flurries . What a kick in the balls after all the promises of a great looking February from many 

Hoping for an April of 2002. Hoping to get the tanning started early...last summer I was down to an SPF 8...I had a pretty cute glaze of tan going...very nice and symmetrical all over the body.

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You got the NAM, that's it. No GEFS, no CMC-ens, 2 EPS. 

Do you have any early thoughts on the spring and Plains severe season? I sure hope the final week of May and first week of June will be active out there otherwise I may have a bit of a meltdown. I'll also melt even more if I go there and something big happens here. 

Bring it

June 5, 2007. 

That was a fun day. It was a Tuesday. I was at work and this is where my memory is faded but I remember checking something...possibly on a phone but I didn't have a phone at the time but there were I think tornado warnings very nearby. I remember going home and getting onto the computer and there were supercells firing off...like classic supercells. The storm structures were amazing...never seen anything like it (up until that time). I think I may even have a picture of the satellite from that day. 

What I recall happening was llvl winds backed around the pre-frontal trough as it was coming through and the shear became highly favorable for supercells. Everything also started on the earlier side (late morning). I wonder if it held off a few hours longer if it would have been a bigger event.