weatherwiz

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think there is just too much hyperbole and people trying to force other posters into a certain "stance".....The large scale pattern isn't good for snow, but sometimes you get "less bad" periods within a crappy pattern that can support snowfall. It's why even in our crappiest stretches, we still usually pull off an event or two.

I'd rather try and point that out than keep posting "woe is me" on the winter....yeah, I get it for snow enthusiasts....an epically terrible stretch since December, but I don't know how many times it can be said before it becomes monotonously repetitive. 

 

Do I expect snow on 3/7 or 3/11? No I don't....but I also wouldn't be shocked if we got some in those windows. So I'm just here to communicate that so people aren't saying "I thought it was nothing but spring in the forecast!!!1!!1!" if a threat does pop up.

I totally agree with this...especially with your first sentence. Part of what's happened too is the winter has just been so bad everyone's emotions are running high and things get a bit chaotic in terms of posting...it's always been that way. Once we usually get a serious threat or are within a favorable regime the tone becomes much different. I have been quite tongue-in-cheek with posting (which is not good) but not sure why really. 

In all honesty I wouldn't discount any more chances for snow and like you said...you don't have to be in a long-term favorable pattern for snow. All you need is a brief stint where the pattern is favorable and hope something works out. Sure it hasn't this winter but even though we're moving towards the spring perhaps some of the changes that occur with wavelengths and responses could end up favoring us. 

We just need something good to pop and change the mood here 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Bust.

I thought my response was pretty good! Did take a couple minutes though to construct it

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When will there be a level headed SVR discussion?

When people understand that weather actually happens outside of their backyard and just b/c their house didn't get a t'storm or that they didn't see severe wx doesn't mean an event or a forecast was a "bust". 

If anything this was good practice for the season. Gotta shake off the forecasting rust. 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There have not been two camps at all...there have been like 5....some people are calling for no more accumulating snow and a repeat of March 2012....some are calling for continued somewhat crappy pattern but are not ruling out accumulating snow yet in a few pockets of more favorability....some have called for no relaxation at all in the AO and then got angry at posters who said it would fall.....some have called for a huge flip to colder and snowier....

 

 

Ok, this is a more fair assessment. but to say thinking along a certain way is being level headed is just not correct. Thinking that period could be above-average in terms of temperatures is just as level headed as thinking it could be cooler with a chance for some snow. Are there signals pointing more towards one direction than the other...sure but it's not like those signals are overly strong and a few minor adjustments can result in a pattern that is colder or one that is much warmer 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. It’s what some of the level minded folks have been saying all along. Point is, it’s not nude car washing fert applying full spring mode yet. 

This is where i strongly disagree. In fact, I could argue it's the opposite of level minded. When dealing with medium and long-range you can always find something and make a case for whatever it is you're trying to state. There have obviously been two camps these past two months and one of those camps have just been flat out wrong...but to ensure they can't be wrong they just add buffer sentences and statements which just say "but that doesn't mean it will happen" "it may not play out that way" etc. Every single time those who have posted against those EPS pattern signal changes they've been ridiculed. 

I'm just amazed at the AO this winter. 

1) How quickly the AO just jumped into positive territory and never looked back

2) How many times it peaked at +4SD

3) For this entire month each drop in the AO was less impressive then the previous drop. This stretch will end that. 

But that forecast drop in a few weeks looks close to the period Will is talking about too .

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Well it looks like down to 1.8 or 1.9 currently. 

I wonder if it will go below the dip from a few weeks ago. 

But it does look like the entire structure of the AO is beginning to break down (perhaps more related to the transition towards spring?). I know the AO loses correlation as we move through the spring, but should we continue seeing such high anomalies it will continue holding at least some weight on the pattern. 

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

The ao did fall below 2 @weatherwiz. The models predicted that correctly. Doesn't mean it will snow though.

nice. 

Do you know what the daily values where? 

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

This winter has been most remarkable in its lack of cold air. Numerous significant  “cold” fronts immediately followed by AN temps. This morning I was shocked to see the car therm read 28F at 6a.m. in late February after ~12 hrs of gusty northwesterly winds. 

I had this same exact thought when looking at the end of next week. That's a pretty decent system/front looking to move through late week but our temperatures go from quite a bit above-average to right around average or even a few ticks above  

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here may be a couple windows for accumulating snow...first is like 3/6-3/8 and then if that high from central Canada presses down could be another from like 3/10-3/12. 

They aren’t great setups as it looks now but better than anything else recently. 

Looks like a split flow wants to try and develop around that time-range...actually even looks tad omega block-ish like too. At least with this there wouldn't be a SE ridge to deal with. Shift the ridge axis a bit west and that could favor something to really amplify should something dig into the OV

Warm Kevin is my favorite. I used to like waking up in the morning and running to my computer to reads Kevin warm posts during the warm season...was the best part of the day. I would do that before anything else and then I would feel all warm and fuzzy inside and walk around the rest of the day with a big smile on my face. 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Typical shallow rad cold for them. I've struggled to get below zero up here. I haven't had more than 2 straight days of sub 32F since before Christmas. That's pretty pathetic.

Jesus...that's beyond pathetic.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Only posts like that made a month out naturally won’t always verify. Apples to oranges when a thread fails two days out.

ehhh it's all in good fun and jabbing. 

I kinda jumped the gun on this...overlooked (or well didn't look) a few things which if I had I probably wouldn't have made this thread. I focused too much on dynamics/lapse rates and didn't even bother to look at theta-e/llvl moisture. 

but it's also the tone of things...I like sticking my head out and trying to make actual forecasts/calls and get away from the notion of "if this happens then this will result". I notice that quite a bit on twitter and I think those posts put the wrong ideas in peoples head. It's not the person's fault who is putting forth the information though...it's how the information is being perceived.  

Even the past month with all these "signals" on the EPS about changes...were those changes really of any merit? When you take into account the structure hemispheric pattern that has been place I don't think any of them ever did. The biggest thing (in my mind was) a lack of a mechanism to disrupt this pattern/circulation to make such changes go through.

Just now, dendrite said:

We've had impressive cold shots?

The one a few weekends back where places up north were like -20 to -30. IDK...I find that "impressive",,,at least in this winter 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

0.4” here this month. This winter needs to go eff itself. Luckily it’s over. We warm up late next week and then mid Morch.

Wednesday is a day where with any sun BDL could tickle 70. Going to be some strong mixing ahead of the front 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 Signals have been there for a while March was going to be predominately above-average. Remember the first week of March was supposed to be cold   Not going to get any long-sustained cold blasts with this look:

500 zonal wind anomalies since Jan 1...easy to see why we've been predominately on the warmer side but you can also see how we can sneak in those brief bursts of (and at times) impressive cold shots. 

Given the state of the Arctic combined with the move towards the equinox March is going to be warm...and potentially quite warm

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What total joke this thread was...I mean really???  This is the first I’ve been here...glad I only wasted 30 seconds on this.  Wiz looking for a rumble of thunder in February, lol. 

Certainly was a joke...just like the hundreds of posts throughout the winter stating "winter is coming", "changes are coming", "there's our pattern change at day 10". Same too about posts about a big cold shot first week of March. . 

It's going to be wild from the OV to the Gulf coast first half of next week. Going to be some significant flooding along with severe 

There was actually some small hail in PA last night 

13 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

darn, failed a February threat

When we really get into summer and start forecasting convection 5-6 days out at least we know that will happen and pan out. 

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Except we know 24 hrs out that it's a fail. First tstm fail down, many more to come. 

you are such a weenie deflater 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Fail as usual 

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This was a waste of electrons

well now I am in the same boat as everyone else with calling for the fake winter threats that never transpired. 

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Wrong, So you buying what CPC is selling for the next 15 mos? I for one, Don't waste anytime on any seasonal model or even the weeklies as far as that goes, We have deterministic models that run 4 times a day that can't get forecasting correct over short periods never mind weeks and months in advance.

But you can’t compare long-range/seasonal models with short-term models. They’re completely different in terms of parameterizations, equations, physics, etc. 

Statistically climate models are more likely to be accurate. 
 

but in terms of buying what the CPC is showing for 15-months...it has nothing to do with buying or selling...it’s not like they’re just pulling this out of their ass. Significant amount of work goes into the construction of these forecasts. Will every month end as so...perhaps not. But the fact of the matter is, given the climate regime we’re in AN is going to win out over BN. 
 

further complicating matters is analogs and these correlations that were once a thing are losing merit b/c we’re continuing to find ways to yield temperatures overall which are warmer than average. 

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Well, considering no model did great this year on 10 day forecast why even look at forecast for three months out?  

Long-range and climate models actually have a better skill.