weatherwiz

Looks SW. AWT

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are way too far south with your thinking of severe tomorrow. Put the Gfs away. It’s about ALB to PVD to DXR

Wasn't using the GFS lol. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s your severe zone tomorrow 

Localized probability matched mean rainfall
accumulations from the HREF are forecasting isolated areas of
3-4 inches across western MA and northern CT through Sunday
morning.

yeah severe flooding 

I wish this stupid line of showers would get through Hartford so I can go 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It depends on sun and warm front. If we sun, we storm.

It's been a nightmare really trying to determine this. Models have been all over the place. My initial thinking is eastern PA/N NJ/SE NY and maybe into SW CT. Seems like this area has been chance to get big CAPE and shear still seems sufficient

Not sure what time to drive to Hartford...stuff by Torrington seems to be moving more east than southeast. 

I can feel it in my bones...all these cute little convective events these past few weeks is just a precursor for something BIGGER to come. Maybe late July maybe August. It's like little tremors before a giant earthquake or before a massive volcanic eruption.  

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nah just general SNE near warm front. It's not eye opening, but a warm front, some hints of convection, decent LLJ, humid etc. Something to watch.

There will be that triple point nearby...sometimes I think you see some on social media "hype up" the triple point or incorrectly assess as a triple point but this is an actual triple point. With theta-e values ~350K and PWATS ~2K there is going to be some ample llvl instability so any updraft that can become mature certainly will have lots to utilize. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is somewhat interesting predawn Sunday. Sunrise surprise?

Out by the Cape? 

EML watch

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah...

Today is dedicated...to all the people who didn't want summer..

Too all the people who wished cold when I was just going to the beach to enjoy it with my daughter.

And all the weenies in the summer struggle...it's all sweaty baby baaabeeehhh.

 

It was all a dream...I used to see raindrops hit my screen

Seeing all these tweets from Dave Epstein

Watching mold grow on the wall

Every Saturday the kids complained more and more...

 

 

 

Heat stroke? 

Mid-level forcing is a little meh with the s/w energy still well into SE Canada...but pretty evident pressure trough across the region with some enhanced llvl convergence. I would think mesos underdoing convective coverage today 

I think mesos are underplaying convection today. Should I post this here or in severe thread? who cares 

May see some nasty wind producers in SE PA/NJ tomorrow. 

I'm going to the Yard Goats game tomorrow...hopefully a nice storm blows through there 

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

CH 5 mentioned strong storms for some tomorrow 

Yeah I think we'll see a decent line move across parts of MA/CT with vivid lightning and threat for localized damaging winds 

AHHHHHHHHHHHHH

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

At this point it better be a derecho. Lol. Where’s The Wiz EML he told us about 20 times already?

At it's origins waiting to be advected this way 

11 hours ago, kdxken said:

And you call yourself a convection enthusiast?

I don't have the energy I used too

Getting a nice light show in bed with thunder while I watch Shameless. Abound have gone to airport but I’m exhausted. 

hmmm increase in lightning out west. might head to BDL. Only a 3 minute drive so why not. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just like good old fashioned storms. Like the one this morning. Whatever gets here will certainly not be severe. Probably  just heavy rainer 

When I woke up during the night (b/c all I do is wake up every couple hours) I checked the radar and I saw the storm passing north of BDL and then the one just south of Hartford...was pretty impressed with the lightning. I was hoping this stuff would have some decent lightning and I'd take a trip to the airport and watch but doesn't look like much. TOns of rain though 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It wasn’t about severe. Many were saying nothing would happen . Models all showed this in some fashion 

severe or bust 

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Looks like is starting to back build 

If there is a decent amount of lightning I'll make the trip 

A trip to BDL may be in the making 

On a walk and it’s amazingly hot and humid. All drenched in sweat. This is what summer is about. Everything is dripping but my hair. This is a much better wet than the wet from yesterday