weatherwiz

Should actually see a decent little line move through later this evening. Don't think we'll see severe gusts but perhaps 30-40 mph. If enough elevated instability can develop maybe some small hail or grauple mixed in. 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There is likely to be a broader area of light snow from the IVT if this doesn't come back....that trough is still going south of LI, so it wouldn't be that surprising to see a lot of C-2" totals.

Not very exciting, but it's on the table....just so that people aren't expecting sunny skies and then say "I thought the snow was gonna miss us!!11!!!"....

This is something to really watch. Could catch people off guard but this is a pretty decent signal showing up. Could really be enhanced should any narrow zone of fronto either develop over eastern sections or traverse over eastern sections. 

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Looks like quite the storm went through Nashville last night. Any EF rating guesses?

High EF-2/low EF-3 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Usually SNE does way better than the NYC area in bad winters down here but it's been awful for everyone except for Maine.

Enjoy your gusty line segment tonight. Maybe if you're lucky you can get some small hail to bounce off the noggin or the grand prize of them all...a brief quick TOR

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This one’s cooked I think for anything other than nuisance snows. Never really made it inside 5 days though for big impact solutions. 

 

Funny...winter storm threat this weekend lessens and severe wx potential looming this evening...perhaps into SW CT  

Now that is a TDS...holy yikes

Sad news out of Nashville  

Let's enjoy the marginal risk to our southwest...almost kissing metfan in the pooper

Down to 59 days!

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Northern stream digs more this run, but the ridge to the west rolls over the top and affects the ability to phase the southern stream....the downstream ridging ahead of the system is blunted because of that. We get spacing issues.

ahhh that's what you mean by ride rollover...pretty clear now to see that with this explanation. 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is having that ridge "rollover" issue too...it's preventing a much better northern stream this run from bringing us a big event.

it actually looks pretty similar to the GFS regarding the southern stream at 84-hr anyways (which is good) but yeah it isn't digging as much with that north stream. I was actually wondering if the euro was faster with the southern stream based on how SLP unfolded but speed doesn't look all that different. What's funny though is I thought the Euro was a tad higher with some of the heights out west (looked like it was a bit farther north with the 552 contour but with closer inspecting there are differences in the ridge between the two. 

ahhh they're on WeatherBell. That's why I couldn't find them on Ryan Maue's site  Unless I just can't find them. 

2 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said:

How west are they from the 6z cause they were pretty west already.

I'm actually not sure where to get the plot which shows the individual low tracks but from judgement of eye (which is never a good way to go) 12z does look solidly west. 

but I always get a little weary of focusing too much on individual runs (and EPS for that matter) and how far west/east storm track is when phasing is involved b/c there are so many moving factors involved with phasing that agreement (or disagreement) 2...3...4 days out means little. At the end of the day a 6-hour difference in the timing of any of the important features will dictate whether phasing happens or not.

We could go into 12z Thursday and still be 12-hours off within timing and all of a sudden 0z runs come out and bam...there's a phase and we get nailed.

8 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

12Z GEFS are west of OP

Not very far off from something pretty big 

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I wasn't writing it off at this time lead...that's for the weenies in here to do....but I'd rather see that ridge not trend flatter. "Trend" might be the wrong word here since it had been actually trending more amped for several runs before regressing a bit for one run here....one run does not a trend make....but we sometimes use the word interchangeably for dprog/dt.

Southern vort conserved better and was slower, which is a good thing.

 

I agree with you that there is certainly room for this to end up as a very high impact event....it doesn;t have to miss east. We have some classic features such as a climatologically favored ridge placement and the northern vort trying to dive in and capture that southern entity...those are features that many higher end events had.

I wouldn't be surprised to continue seeing the southern vort trend slower. A lot of these southern stream systems this winter have typically ended up becoming slower in nature as opposed to more progressive. Noticed that alot with many of these rain/convective events in the south this winter. 

Hopefully though we'll get a better handle on the western ridge over the next 24-hours. Not sure though if it should be a bit concerning to see 12z begin to go towards a flatter ridge but tough to say. 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

First coronavirus case in NH...Grafton county. Traveled to Italy

chickens? 

29 minutes ago, Fozz said:

What is the big deal about May? Severe weather?

Beginning of severe wx season!

The models too have struggled significantly with the whole southern stream system and potential impacts across the south. Heck, there was a good part of last week where EPS were even spitting out a large swath of like 4-8'' of rain across the TN Valley with some significant convection...boy has that changed. could certainly see a situation where the southern energy ends up a bit weaker...which would increase the likelihood of more involvement with the northern stream? 

In about 12-13 days the GFS will start poking into April so we're essentially only 12-13 days away from being 0 full months away from May in the model world. 

5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

This may be the most weenie-est map that I have ever seen.  Looks like something that Ray made.

Only thing missing is a circled contour in NE MA

Only one more full month to go until we hit May...WOW. It's a comin'!!!!!!

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very Napril 97 look. We all get feet with 60’s days before and days right after 

It would be fun to get the end of the week to pan out. Seems like a much different scenario than what we've been dealing with all winter so maybe that is some good news. I also think we've had several decent events which preceded a warmer pattern, no? 

The northern stream is no joke end of week...nice. Wouldn't mind a nice little crusher then bounce back with 50's days later. 

Well then. 

Seems like if that northern stream energy can interact in time with the southern stream energy as it's departing that would open the door for something...particularly NNE Is this how some of those December event's worked out?