weatherwiz

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yo Wiz ...I think with the recent guidance attempting to spill the theta-e surplussed ... global warming ( ) sector over the western elevations tomorrow, that may help some convective numbers.

Anyone caught in negative CAPE production probably gets water boarded in blue-green marine rain cores for starters.  Probably wet outflow winds

I'm sure we will spit out some good CAPE numbers tomorrow...SBCAPE anyways. Lift to me tomorrow looks pretty subpar and actually even some hints at some subsidence behind the passage of the morning s/w with the warm front lifting north. 

We will certainly see some sorts tomorrow but aerial coverage should be pretty limited and what does form could certainty produce some localized damaging wind gusts. 

I don't use MS Paint anymore. 

For social media I just use this app called You doodle and write stuff on there with a pen and draw stuff

How did you make such a cute drawing with those nearly perfect arrows and fronts?

at some point this month we'll be dealing with wildfire smoke aloft

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s missing tomorrow’s wild look too because he’s on looking at HRRR

No forcing tomorrow, weakening shear, pretty neutral heights...meh

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Haven’t looked much.  I would think Wiz would be all over it?

meh

damn...so much for storms tomorrow. Looks like crap. Maybe even only isolated and probably well west

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AWT

well at least we have a few chances this week. Maybe later on when the cold front approaches

Looks like severe threat stays southwest of CT...down into SE PA/NJ/NYC area

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wednesday-Friday are 90+

Potential is absolutely there but cloud cover could be an issue...going to be tons of convective debris around. 

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...while height rises and surpasses 594 dam thru and over the boundary -

this physics of this ordeal are whack - I mean the Euro seems to have completely decoupled anything below the 800 mb level from above - two distinct atmospheres behaving with entirely different synoptic forcing.   Never seen that - ..not just the Euro either.  

Isn't it pretty crazy lol. When I was looking at this week Friday I saw the 594+ heights building West from the Atlantic and was expecting maybe we would be looking at a week characterized by temperatures in the 93-97 range...but alas not the case. Just so much going on in the lower atmosphere. 

I think the situation would be different though if these 594+ heights were building in from the West or Southwest...then we would probably get the 20-22C+ 850 air in here. 

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX hitting severe pretty hard tomorrow 

They have like one sentence on it and it says localized damaging wind gusts

Looks like 18z runs keep the sfc warm front pretty far SW

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably SW CT. Not much MLCAPE anywhere else, but there is good instability aloft. 

yeah SW CT looks to be in a pretty favorable area for a good overlap of shear/cape. 

decent severe potential tomorrow 

19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't know if you have seen this before, but check out this sounding from Bangladesh.  The CAPE/shear combo on here would rival anything in the United States.  I have seen observed soundings or forecast soundings with 8000-10000+ J/kg of CAPE (usually in a zone from Nebraska to Illinois, which gets dewpoint assistance from all the crops) but the shear is typically weak.  Having 50 kts of flow at 500 mb along with 9000 J/kg CAPE is insane.

 

I have come across that sounding before!!

That is like something a severe weenie would dream of lol. Storm tops would probably punch well into the mesosphere  

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

@weatherwizSome bangers between 9-12 tonight

Hoping for another nice light show

18 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

India/Bangladesh/Pakistan gets unbelievable tornadoes and severe weather. Worth a google 

I am familiar with the fact they get real nasty severe weather(they get crazy EML's) but I have never really looked into it such as videos, setups, etc. I'll take a look!

2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

You read that a lot in India and Pakistan unfortunately 

Looks like DSM reported hail

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

About 10 years ago there was a supercell in rural northwest IN that produced softball size hail and winds of 100 mph.  In the same area.  The crop damage was massive and the relatively small number of homes that were affected had a lot of roof/siding/window damage.  I can't even imagine something like that.  It must have felt like a military assault.  Just think about anybody who was caught outside or driving in that.  Must have been scary.

Sometimes I'm a little shocked you never hear stories in the news of people getting seriously hurt or even killed by hail (maybe there are but I just never come across them). But winds that strong blowing those hail stones...can't even imagine. Ive been pelted with 1'' hail before and that hurts  

crazy how quickly things dry too...a hour or two after it stopped raining...roads and parking lots dry. You could look outside now and wouldn't even know it rained. 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Started talking about potential in my group chat on June 22. Obviously there’s a ton that happens between  speculation and game time but sometimes these signals are as solid as it gets. 

Makes it all the more frustrating that the Euro ensembles are really struggling with TC genesis signals even at very short range. Makes blending much more difficult IMO.

completely agreed...when you start seeing glaring signals and those signals remain consistent it kinda starts to open eyes. You look at SST's off the coast (and correlate that to SSTA's) and things are beginning to cook. 

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Guidance continuously reloading a Great Lakes trough through the end of the month. If that feature sticks through August & September, we'll get a real tropical system up here.

I've been thinking about that quite a bit...especially considering how strong the Bermuda high has been off the coast and also its proximity to the U.S. Given here there is really no signs of the strong ridging in the West breaking these reloading troughs in the Great Lakes will continue 

Woah never seen this wording before 

Gotta say...this was pretty damn well forecast. Obviously the exact details had to be ironed out as we got closer but I remember last Friday the look on the models gave pretty good confidence we were going to be impacted.