weatherwiz

Let the Carolina's get the snow now and we can get their severe wx this summer  

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

HRRR still very bullish. If that's correct that's a very nice snowstorm.

It's going to be super close...definitely probably not going to be a widespread event, but despite all the shifts and uncertainties one thing which has been pretty consistent is the area getting hit pretty good where the WSW is up. But looks like the system is going to end up a bit flatter which is going to hurt quite a bit. 

Anyone know what's been going on with bufkit and the completely unrealistic levels of dry  air? 

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hows that massive NC snowstorm look today.  What does Eric say?

If we can't get snow they shouldn't be able to get it either (: 

That early week wave could have a huge say in things. The airmass for much of next week is quite warm..perhaps if that early week wave comes weaker/flatter that will mute the air mass a bit...but it just seems like it might be another system with crappy airmass and then after the storm (end of week) we get the cold  

56 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

 

 

 

Thank you everyone. I truly appreciate it. I'm working that network now as we speak. 

Scott- not sure real estate is what I want permanently. We've discussed a little one on one about that. There's a lot of scum baggery involved in it. I feel like I'm destined to do something a little more meaningful. Or so I hope. 

Good luck man! Keep your head up 

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cumberland Tower hill Rd

Ahhh yes that’s it!!! I want to go through there 

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maybe only site in the country where someone died from a nuclear accident 

do you know the name of this town in RI that is supposedly Haunted? It’s like just over the CT/RI border I think along route 6

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is a spot in southern RI called Wood River surrounding by pines at the bottom of hills in sandy soil.  It has the lowest recorded temperature in RI and its barely 7 miles from the coast. I lived a half mile from there and you could literally feel the cold as you walked down. 

 

 

Probably haunted  (that's the closest emoji I could find to a ghost) 

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks meh maybe 4 max?

ehhh there might be a strip of higher totals than that. 

I've follow Eric Webb closely on Twitter b/c his long-range/ENSO information is top notch (love his Ensemble ONI Index he createD) and he is pretty aggressive for tomorrow. Think he has 5-9''

3 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Every year I deliver syrup to a brewery in Charlotte around New Years.  A couple of years ago they were expecting snow.  I think it was forecast to be around 6", maybe more and I thought no problem.  I'm from New England and I can deal with that.  Then I discovered the real issue down there - lack of plows and more importantly, salt.  People would drive around and pack the snow down and before long all the streets and interstates were sheets of ice and you could barely move.  I took the interstate north and at some point climbing up the Blue Ridge the roads were plowed and treated and it was fine north of there.

I think it's a budget balancing act.  Does it make sense to invest in equipment and material you might use once a year or even a decade?  Even here there's equipment that isn't as widely used as places that get more snow more often.

Was just talking about that at work with someone...they don't budget for it...and for precisely the same reasons you said. 

That is an interesting point though about cars packing down the snow...one thing that happens is they get pretty damn cold behind the system for Thursday night and not getting a while heck of a lot above freezing Friday (but the sun is on the stronger side). Icing could be a huge issue come Friday morning 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They can handle it down there outside of the coastal counties. They're kinda due.

I always wonder...what's the line between where these places and handle snow and where all hell breaks lose over a 1/2''. I know Atlanta falls into the later category so are they like that line or is it a bit north of them? 

12z Euro looking more impressive too down there for tomorrow. Slowly catching up 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a euro fail for NC. 

 

I'm pretty shocked the NWS hasn't issued any advisories or watches down that way. I don't know what local outlets are saying, but I think here are going to be plenty of people who are like WTF. A scenario like the NAM would be a utter disaster down there. 

Just now, Drop the Trough said:

they got off to a really early start, then it fizzled. At least it was a white Christmas:)

yeah they had few stretches where it was pretty active but it's been brutally quiet out there. Last year I think some places had like 400-500'' in February alone

We think it's brutal here for snow...take a look at this...THAT IS UGLY. 111'' thus far...I think last year they had that on like a 3 day span in February

I've realized I haven't had a dream about severe wx in a while...typically means that we will actually get more snow. Usually by now I'm having crazy dreams about severe wx where I'm seeing tornadoes and I'm trying to take video or pictures but I'm "unable to" and then I wake up  

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nah. March will be a torch with a raging +AO. Get your bikini ironed.

Don't even need the bikini when it's that warm  

I hope March is active. When it's active it's fun and time goes by fast...let March be active and fun b/c once March ends...boom we're only one month away from severe wx season...nuts. Let's get 20-30'' in March and then flip to 70's and 80's come April. 

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We got the grill , a hot tub and Milfs

come on up

Can I come? 

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

So we just discovered a -41 at Jackman Saturday morning. Nice fake cold.

How's Ekster doing these days? 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That is quite the dilemma for NC later this week. NAM destroys. 

That signal has been incredibly consistent since last Friday. 

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wiz gone wild. 

At some point you can’t just ignore model guidance in the skilled timeframes just because you got burned previously. 

This big change in the arctic is taking place inside of 8 or 9 days. It’s not like it’s a 360 hour pipe dream. 

Again, doesn’t have to mean we forecast big cold and snow. But it’s quite a bit less hostile to storms in the east than the current regime. 

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure I follow you here... 

what's 'too easy'  -

And no, not necessarily - forgive me if I'm wrong, but it "sounds" as though you are failing to allow 'emergence' in the modeling.  And by that, I don't mean the fractal variety; I mean, the physics of the system now, processed through equations of motions, and thermodynamics over time...  emerge those states  of indexes out in time.

That's a seamless process - it may seem like it has temporal boundaries at times, but actually...it's a fluid.  So you are not going to necessarily see shit on D 2'd  rmf up diamonds on D 8's  ... It may take until D 5, 6 or 7 for the turds to start gemming - 

 

It's not necessarily just ignoring it...it's just trying to dive deeper into it and exploring and seeking answers into "why the change is happening" instead of just assuming so b/c it's being reflected on the charts (this also answers to Tip about what I mean by too easy).

Looking at the charts...while a drop is obviously the trend...there is significant uncertainty regarding this towards the end of the month. For the past month, each drop in the AO has become less impressive than the previous drop...now I'm not using that as my case to claim that continues...what I'm suggesting from that is it's in part due to just how strong and how coupled the PV's are

now...analyzing how H5 evolves on the GFS/euro/ensembles you can clearly see why the drop is being modeled...but what I'm also getting at is those changes which lead to weakening of the AO would start to be shown in about 3-4 days...so if that configuration isn't evolving as so by that time...can we really expect a major drop in the AO?

One other major wild card is what's occurring in the GoA right now with that significant storm...following forecasts in the anchorage area the forecasts have been extremely uncertain and low confidence. Seems like the system is much stronger than sort of though. This may influence the shape of the height fields up that way over the next few days which would have some say in what happens after that. 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nothing can stay at 6SD for very long. Otherwise it’s time to recalculate the deviations. I mean, what’s the probability of a z-score of 6? 

I don't think it really holds to be that strong...but I think it stays on the stronger side. whether that's +1 (sure much different than now...but that's still strong) or +3 I couldn't say. Even in this regime though we've had cold shots and I would expect us to see some more...but will they be long-lived? Probably not...that will just make it all the more difficult to get something to work out in our favor. I'm thinking after the cold blast towards months end (should it verify) we flip towards warm and stay there until mid-May when backdoors decide to haunt us

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All ensemble EOF methods from multiple guidance agencies depicting a 4 to 5 SD dump of the AO...  

that's a A

B,  ...season ending blocking has some precedence in climatology. It doesn't have to be major, either...just time well with other factors and can create a kind of 'synergistic' feed-back ..i.e., constructive interference, and then that climate signal expresses more if so.  Think, two small 2-order waves super-impose and the end wave is 5 ...not just 4.  Something like that as a metaphor

C, the pattern persisted +AO and the typical mortality on pattern is 45 ... maybe 60 days, and we near the 60 day...so, there is some typology that lends to the notion that the AO/PV really is/are slated to deconstruct a bit.  Typically when that happens, you also get a blocking node response ...because when the seam takes place, there is a transient latent heat surplus toward the Farrel Cell. 

You basically have three factors there that are super-imposing over the next three weeks.  It doesn't mean cryo-apocalypse either... Just that instead of sloping the interference tendencies toward failure, we have a chance to pass through a season ending success bias.   

Which is far in a way an improvement over the last 60 days, don't you think?  Or, we can just knee jerk doubt and sans objectivity because we either hate winter and just want tropopause fisting CBs, or... are too disillusion-addled inconsolable pieces of shit.   Kidding a little there of course.. 

A) oh come on...that's too easy  but my point to that is when we see these changes modeled in the medium-to-long range...shouldn't signals which are leading to those changes be witnessed with initialization of models say at D4 or 5 (or some day). 

B ) makes sense

C) This is all extremely informative information! But given the historic nature of the AO would the 45/60 day pattern be applicable here?