weatherwiz

The GFS has become the superior model with tropical. There have been a few storms over the last 2-3 years where it was GFS vs. everything else and the GFS came out on top.

Seems like there will be a substantial amount of shear with the strong trough just off to the north. I would think the two biggest concerns are going to be storm surge and maybe rainfall/flooding. Looks like the system could slow down quite a bit too. Wouldn't be surprised to see a small area of 15-20'' of rain.

SpaceX stuff

Looks like more members on the 0z model intensity guidance are into cat 4 now disclaimer: I'm a beer deep into a 9.5% that I LOVE so I could be seeing things

A friend sent me this last night...I gotta watch it!

Model Intensity Guidance has been rather concerning since this thing was even a little tickle. Lots of members into the Cat 4 guidance. I would think if Ian avoids Cuba all together or just skirts the western edge higher intensity would be rather likely.

I'm not sure if we'll be able to muster up enough low-level instability to get any couplets to tighten sufficiently. Although the potential for this is probably highest towards the coast where dewpoints could be 3-4°F higher. One thing I do like though is how the storm mode looks to be on the discrete side. Cells will be moving rather quickly too. If any storm could straddle the warm front there would be enhanced shear to work with but you'll still need sufficient CAPE in the lowest few km for anything to tighten.

I wonder if it's worth starting a severe thread for tomorrow. I say yes

There's the Marginal Risk for tomorrow!!!!

Looks like some strong overnight/early AM storms across SE CT, RI, and SE MA EDIT: Sunday night into Monday

More rain and storms late Sunday/early Monday!

No wonder everyone's lawns are dead

drought lol

This is why it's great to switch tilts and also have tools where we can see the storm in a 3D view (like with GR lvl 2) to get an idea of how high up the strongest dbz are located. In these setups or situations where you have extremely heavy rainfall rates, if you're looking at radar and its showing like 45-50+ dbz but the core of those dbz are in the lowest 5,000 feet or so it's predominately going to be super heavy rain. But if you're seeing good cores (50 dbz+) extending close to 10,000 feet and higher...that's when you're getting a damn good storm with wind/hail.

Three things to focus on: 1) How steep do 2-6km lapse rates becoming 2) Pretty strong LLJ across eastern sections. 30-40 knots at 925mb. 3) DCAPE values 600-800 J/KG Thinking we see some wind damage for sure across eastern areas

You folk are weird

Dynamics FTW

Might be some small hail over West Haven per CC

Thunder!!!

Of course I go to Branford today and where I am in Springfield is about to get NAILED

Actually timing slowed down to the point to where eastern sections may have a chance for some svr Thursday

At least we'll be able to muster some elevated convection with hopefully a good light show

I did issue a photo-genetic shelf cloud watch this morning! Beautiful p

In New Britain and fun stuff! Heavy rain, feel any, thunder, lightning, and windy!!! I saw the shelf cloud from behind.

These are some pretty vigorous early season troughs digging into the Great Lakes/Northeast. 500mb jet streaks pushing +2 to +3 SD's with each trough.